i get the implied Volatility from http://www.ivolatility.com/ the link below has a little info on it and you will have to go to tradingmarkets.com for Kevin Hagerty info. http://hamfon.com/daytrade/vband.htm Included below is an example of the V-bands I captured from my spread sheet into a JPG with updated numbers. I havent been using the VB in my trading in a long time but ask anyone who has studied Kevin Hagerty Knows what a great tool they are. Hope this helps Lotus 7
http://hamfon.com/daytrade/vband.htm Good stuff and remember this: Final note As with all other indicators, Volatility Bands are NOT the holy grail when considered alone. However, with confirmation from other indicators that you use, VBands can provide additional price points to consider for trade entry and exit.
Just for fun, here is the VB for GOOG the IV is at 38.78% WOW and for those who wont click on an attachment the spx below that............. ____________________________________________________ Stock: GOOG Call Implied Volatility = 38.72% Average Volatility = 38.78% Put Implied Volatility = 38.83% Closing Price = $368.7500 Probability SD Price bands 95 2.00 383.72 87 1.50 379.98 80 1.28 378.33 68 1.00 376.23 close 2/18/2005 $368.7500 68 1.00 361.27 80 1.28 359.17 87 1.50 357.52 95 2.00 353.78 __________________________________________________ Kevin's Volatility Bands Stock: SPX Call Implied Volatility = 9.41% Average Volatility = 9.83% Put Implied Volatility = 10.24% Closing Price = $1,287.2400 Probability SD Price bands 95 2.00 1300.48 87 1.50 1297.17 80 1.28 1295.71 68 1.00 1293.86 close 2/18/2005 $1,287.2400 68 1.00 1280.62 80 1.28 1278.77 87 1.50 1277.31 95 2.00 1274.00 ___________________________________________________ Lotus 7
I also use Kevin Haggerty's implied volatiliity band for trading ES... but assigning probability to the band are just plain wrong because market returns are NOT normally distributed. Some day the market will blow thru all levels and other days will give great entry. Have your stop ready! I don't quite remember any entry recently though.
I have a feeling Stealth posted to the wrong thread. Hmmm I think he wanted this to be in Bolters thread Lotus 7
Marty, I just posted the Volatility bands to help. I belive each trader who has or will study Hagerty, needs to come to there own terms with the use of the bands. I have always used the VB on the cash market. The VB are not used of and by itself, always in conjunction with other set-ups. I don't want to get to far off topic here, and make this a Hagerty thread. Besides I am not sure this is what the original poster is looking for to begin with. Namaste Lotus 7
tnc, something else you may want to look into is the book Sniper trading by "George Angell" George has many formulas of buy and sell numbers and writes in detail how he uses them. If you ask me, the book is very well done. FWIW this should keep you busy for a while is you are serious. otherwise i am wasting my time posting...... LOL Namaste Lotus 7
Namaste: Thanks for the reply. The numbers I'm looking to compute are "buy" and "sell" numbers (two of each) that I receive daily in a subscription I have with Trending123. I also receive daily "buy" and "sell" pivot numbers (two of each) from Mohan, at 21st Century Futures. Mohan's numbers are sometimes close to the numbers I receive from Trending, but not as accurate. The numbers are calculated at the end of each trading day, for use the following day, usually by "Position Traders". They consist of two "buy" numbers and two "sell' numbers. They do not change during the day. One of the numbers is usually hit during each trading day. For instance, if the market is having a down day, the majority of the time the first "buy" pivot will be hit and the market will usually do an immediate turn. If the market does stall and then continues through the first "buy" pivot for more than one point (doesn't happen often), it will almost certainly hit the second, and turn. Just the opposite for up days. These numbers are deadly accurate, and seem to be obvious, daily targets for the "big boys". They are most often different than the daily numbers used by most traders (Floor Pivots, MM, BB, Keltner, S/R, etc.). I have tried to reproduce them, using every formula I can find, but have been unsuccessful. I approached this forum to see if maybe someone had suggestions using formulas I've not yet discovered. I have not, but I will check out George Angell's book. Thanks for the suggestion. Any help is greatly appreciated.
ahhh...a noble quest sir. Without seeing the levels and attempting my hand at reverse-engineering them, I simply do not know...