E-Mini S&P Elliott Wave Discussion: July, 2010

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by EWT, Jul 26, 2010.

  1. EWT

    EWT

    #161     Feb 23, 2011
  2. EWT

    EWT

  3. EWT

    EWT

    The last time I spoke to readers, I offered an operative and alternative wave count. At the conclusion of today's trade, I can eliminate the alternative wave count as price advanced beyond the 1.618 RF of wave b circle.

    That being said, the strength of today's move was a bit of a surprise, as price exceeded my upside target of
    1323.75 - 1325.5 and advanced to 1329 before making a minor three wave decline. The next area of resistance above the is 1332.25. You should note that I have made some changes to the wave count for w.ii circle based upon today's price action. I've labeled the advance as a double three where w.(y) of w.ii circle may have terminated today and if so we should see an immediate decline in five waves if this count is correct.

    Notice the Detrend Osc. has a established trendline and diverged as price made new highs. This suggests that the rally is very mature in it's structure or it had already completed it's advance.

    If w.ii circle has been struck, then the osc. should fall. Should it push higher and test the trendline during the ON session or tomorrow's trade, price should move higher to where w.(y) = w.(w) at 1337.25. If this scenario prevails, then the rules of EWP apply, in that w.ii circle can't carry beyond the origin of w.i circle if the wave count is correct. Therefore, I'm setting critical resistance at 1343. A print above 1343 negates either wave interpretation.


    I hope you found this information helpful.

    Best of Trading
     
    #163     Feb 28, 2011
  4. EWT

    EWT

    #164     Mar 2, 2011
  5. EWT

    EWT

    #165     Mar 6, 2011
  6. EWT

    EWT

    In this weeks edition of "Heard on The Street", I laid out a bullish and bearish forecast for the S&P with the expectation that the index would have to fall hard today in order to maintain my bearish stance.

    After the opening bell, the market quickly turned tail and sold off on higher volume. That's another distribution day where institutions were selling. The lower boundary of the Elliott Channel also gave way bolstering the bearish case. This was what I wanted to see and is typical of third wave price action.

    The clearest wave structure can be seen in the S&P cash, rather than the E-minis. A series of 1-2's has developed intraday but I would like to see a further decline whereas price breaks critical support at 1294.26 or 1292.5, the equivalent in the ES-F. Until then, the alternative count remains viable. Likewise a break above critical resistance at 1332.28 or 1332.50 in the ES-F, would signal that the alternative count would become the preferred wave count and that price would make a new recovery high above 1343. If you would like to view that intraday chart, see:

    http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2011/03/market-pulse_07.html

    I hope you found this information helpful.

    Best of Trading
     
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    #166     Mar 7, 2011
  7. EWT

    EWT

    #167     Mar 9, 2011
  8. EWT

    EWT

    #168     Mar 14, 2011
  9. EWT

    EWT

    #169     Mar 16, 2011
  10. EWT

    EWT

    The Market continues to rally to the upside against the decline from 1343.25 - 1243.25. From 1243.25, there are several waves that overlap giving the appearance of a countertrend move.... a W-X-Y double zig-zag. For tomorrow, I'm looking for a further price advance to 1304.50 -1305 where w.c of w.y =w.a. Also note that the lower end of the gap will act as structural resistance. Should the market push through these key areas, then the next zone of resistance is where w.y = w.w at 1312.5.

    Failure to penetrate 1296.50 would call into question the immediate wave interpretation and open the door for a retest of 1279 possibly lower to 1268-1270.75.

    Since the jury is still out on whether the decline from 1343.25 - 1243.25 is just a correction, I'm focusing only on the current wave structure. Depending on your view of the market, one could also argue that the rally form 1243.25 is a leading diagonal. Regardless of which view is correct, the outlook for the market once the rally completes is still to the downside. The only difference is by how much.

    Tomorrow will bring with it another piece of the puzzle. Let's see what develops.


    Best of Trading
     
    #170     Mar 23, 2011