A multiple chart post has been made regarding the S&P, intermarket relationships at: http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2011/02/market-pulse_23.html?spref=tw
This weeks video update at : http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2011/02/heard-on-street-pause-before-next-leg.html
The last time I spoke to readers, I offered an operative and alternative wave count. At the conclusion of today's trade, I can eliminate the alternative wave count as price advanced beyond the 1.618 RF of wave b circle. That being said, the strength of today's move was a bit of a surprise, as price exceeded my upside target of 1323.75 - 1325.5 and advanced to 1329 before making a minor three wave decline. The next area of resistance above the is 1332.25. You should note that I have made some changes to the wave count for w.ii circle based upon today's price action. I've labeled the advance as a double three where w.(y) of w.ii circle may have terminated today and if so we should see an immediate decline in five waves if this count is correct. Notice the Detrend Osc. has a established trendline and diverged as price made new highs. This suggests that the rally is very mature in it's structure or it had already completed it's advance. If w.ii circle has been struck, then the osc. should fall. Should it push higher and test the trendline during the ON session or tomorrow's trade, price should move higher to where w.(y) = w.(w) at 1337.25. If this scenario prevails, then the rules of EWP apply, in that w.ii circle can't carry beyond the origin of w.i circle if the wave count is correct. Therefore, I'm setting critical resistance at 1343. A print above 1343 negates either wave interpretation. I hope you found this information helpful. Best of Trading
ES_F is presenting another short opportunity. Here's the link to my multiple chart evaluation of the market at : http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2011/03/market-pulse.html?spref=tw
A mutichart post regarding the Gold Oil Raion and its implications on the S&P and other markets has just been posted to my blog at: http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2011/03/heard-on-street-gold-oil-ratios-tool-to.html Best of Trading
In this weeks edition of "Heard on The Street", I laid out a bullish and bearish forecast for the S&P with the expectation that the index would have to fall hard today in order to maintain my bearish stance. After the opening bell, the market quickly turned tail and sold off on higher volume. That's another distribution day where institutions were selling. The lower boundary of the Elliott Channel also gave way bolstering the bearish case. This was what I wanted to see and is typical of third wave price action. The clearest wave structure can be seen in the S&P cash, rather than the E-minis. A series of 1-2's has developed intraday but I would like to see a further decline whereas price breaks critical support at 1294.26 or 1292.5, the equivalent in the ES-F. Until then, the alternative count remains viable. Likewise a break above critical resistance at 1332.28 or 1332.50 in the ES-F, would signal that the alternative count would become the preferred wave count and that price would make a new recovery high above 1343. If you would like to view that intraday chart, see: http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2011/03/market-pulse_07.html I hope you found this information helpful. Best of Trading
The market is at a significant level. Tomorrow should resolve the wave pattern that has unfolded over the past few trading days. See my multiple chart post at : http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2011/03/market-pulse-nasdaq-and-s.html Best of Trading
A multi chart update of the S&P is available at http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2011/03/market-wrap.html
Bull /Bear Cases were just published in multiple charts at : http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2011/03/mrket-pulse.html Best of Trading
The Market continues to rally to the upside against the decline from 1343.25 - 1243.25. From 1243.25, there are several waves that overlap giving the appearance of a countertrend move.... a W-X-Y double zig-zag. For tomorrow, I'm looking for a further price advance to 1304.50 -1305 where w.c of w.y =w.a. Also note that the lower end of the gap will act as structural resistance. Should the market push through these key areas, then the next zone of resistance is where w.y = w.w at 1312.5. Failure to penetrate 1296.50 would call into question the immediate wave interpretation and open the door for a retest of 1279 possibly lower to 1268-1270.75. Since the jury is still out on whether the decline from 1343.25 - 1243.25 is just a correction, I'm focusing only on the current wave structure. Depending on your view of the market, one could also argue that the rally form 1243.25 is a leading diagonal. Regardless of which view is correct, the outlook for the market once the rally completes is still to the downside. The only difference is by how much. Tomorrow will bring with it another piece of the puzzle. Let's see what develops. Best of Trading