Mark, Thanks for the comment. I have a blog where I also make comments on other markets. I use it to accomplish the very task that you describe. The presentation is much cleaner and easier to follow. It would certainly help if I could just post the link to the blog when I have multiple charts but certain forum members are sensitive to using any outside links. Any other thoughts?
Insight: What a zoozer of a day. The ES_F traded in a 5.5 point range and closed within the previous day's range making it an inside day. For tomorrow... be on your toes looking for a possible trend day. I would like to spend some time speaking about gold since I was preoccupied with it for most of the day and many of my blog readers have shown an interest in my updates on the subject matter. Gold initially looked like it had topped. A potential trade presented itself with a very small amount of capital exposure and the potential for large returns. I was hoping to go short and take advantage of the opportunity but the trade never materialized. Lucky for me ... as a new recovery high was reached. But it really wasn't dumb luck that keep me out of the trade. It was the knowledge of the wave principal and the fact that IF my wave count was correct, (which it wasn't) then the personality of the trade would have developed in a 5 wave decline of greater magnitude. That's not what a saw developing. Those of you who follow my Tweets were aware that I grew cautious and decided to look for further confirmation that indeed a top was in place. Elliott Wave Analysis: Given the inside day in the ES_F an the high wave consolidation that transpired today, I'm still looking higher. Nothing else has changed in my forecast and price targets as indicated in my "week in review" that I posted on Sunday within this forum. With regards to gold, the new recovery high is a game changer. My previous interpretation was that XK_F was working a w.2 corrective pattern. According to EW rules, w.2 can't exceed the origin of w.1 so that interpretation is null and void. So it's time to embrace an alternate count and be nimble. Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that further upside potential exists targeting the upper channel line. An interim target is 1459.8... a common wave relationship within w.(5). I've also place other upside Fibonacci extensions on the chart but reaching those levels would involve interpreting w. (5) as an extended wave. Currently w(5) is approx. equal to w.(3). So any further advance makes w.(5) an extended wave. Keep in mind that in commodities, fifth wave extensions are common so I'm not surprised that the train kept on going. I will continue to monitor the wave count in gold and add commentary as warranted. Best of Trading
Insight: The rally in the ES_F appears to have ended, albeit temporarily so. Yesterday's advance to 1235 came within 4 points of the 1.232 RF that I mentioned in my week in review. The subsequent sell off that developed after the first hour of trade was on high volume and therefore a distribution day. Gold reversed off it's high of 1432.2 and followed through to the downside. The US Dollar rallied but it doesn't exhibit the price action that one would expect of a third wave. Elliott Wave Analysis ES_F: If w.b circle had ended at 1235, then w.c circle should trade to a minimum of 1195-1203 in w.c circle. Both values represent the .50 and .618 retracements respectively. Should the expanded flat interpretation win out, the decline for w.c circle would be well below 1171. A rise above 1235 would raise serious doubt that wave 4 was still in progress. Note: I have labeled the possibility of w.4 ending at 1171, where the operative count is labeled as w.a circle.
Gold ( XK_F): At the daily chart level, gold has either completed in five waves or the decline from 1432.4 is unfolding in a three wave structure as I have depicted on the ALT (alternative count) line. Either interpretation should result in further downside pressure.
US Dollar (DX_F): The rally from 75.23 to 81.44 has so far unfolded in only three waves. That's a corrective structure that implies that the larger downtrend may remain down. I have been working a series of 1-2's and this interpretation is running out of time and price. What I mean by that is that any further decline below critical support negates the interpretation. Also, if the wave structure is truly unfolding in a 3rd of a 3rd wave, then this rally should be much stronger than what I have observed since the bottom was put in. Bottom line, I'm not giving this interpretation much more latitude and admit that I may be wrong. Best of Trading
Let's keep this simple. I hate making a post that I have to break up and ask everyone to interpret what the *** is going on. So when I make coments that contain more than one chart I will be using my blogsite on a moving forward basis. It's easier on all of us. Of course, single chart posts will still be made w/o any linking to an outside source. If you are interested in my comments, the link is: http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2010/12/heard-on-street-weekly-perspective.html
A multi-chart commentary can be found at http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2010/12/market-pulse.html for todays market action.
As a reminder, I'm making posts to this forum when the discussion warrants the use of a single chart. For multiple charts, I'm using my blog for simplicity so readers can fully understand my material, rather than jumping between pages trying to piece my thoughts together. I have just make a multiple chart post on the ES_F at http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2010/12/market-pulse-daily-perspective.html Best of Trading
I have just posted some detailed analysis that I have been working on during the month of December. Charts and comments include: US, Europe, Asia-Pacific markets, Currencies, Metals and Energy. If you are interested go to: http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2010/12/global-gains-monthly-perspective_20.html Enjoy. Best of Trading
ANNOUNCEMENTS The market is closed tomorrow in observance of the Christmas holiday. This will be my last post of the week but I'll be back at my desk on December 26, 2010. To all my readers across the globe celebrating either Christmas or Hanuka, I wish you and your family a joyous holiday season. Elliott Wave Analysis There isn't much to discuss as trade surrounding the Christmas season is typically dull. Volume is null as most larger traders are in full holiday mode. The ES_F market is putting the finishing touches on the w.5 of the w.(2) advance. Another sign of a top is that a divergence is occurring as price makes new highs while momentum fails to confirm price. This signature, although not required, is often found with a topping market. One thing that caught my eye was the most recent decline of COT Commercials positions (not shown). Previously commercials were adding to their positions throughout this rally. Possibly this is just position squaring or is it a "tell" as the seasonal trend for equities ends in mid January. I'll be watching this data carefully. Best of Trading