Hello Traders, I am new to the forum and wish to start a dialog within this thread for Position Trading the E-mini S&P. For the purpose of discussion, chart levels 60 min and above are acceptable. I would like to keep the discussion(s) at a high level and strickly focused upon the Elliott Wave Principle. Attached is my operative count of the market from the daily chart level. I believe that the decline from 1216.5 unfolded as a leading Diagonal rather than a five wave decline. We are currently working minor wave 2 up as a zig-zag. I look forward to reading your comments. Mike Sinibaldi
The diagonal does seem to be the most obvious current count (And I believe it has been since the July low) I guess what are you ideas on where C terminates? I'm not sure what you're looking for here in terms of response and I believe that most of the futures traders in the particular section of the forum you chose trade much differently then discretionary Elliott Waves.
My reasoning for the discussion board is that I have personally found EWT to be useful. For example, I am a Fib trader and EWT fits quite nicely into my trade plan as a compliment. I am looking to discuss entry, exit and stop placements as well as any indicators that other traders find useful when trading. Market direction comments are acceptable as long as they are supported by EWT. My only thought is that Elliott Wave analysis should part of a trader's disipline. I welcome traders who have developed a trading plan that involves other disciplines as long as part of the post allows readers to see how EWT entered into the trade. Feel free to make a post.
This is my current view of the market as well as the anticipated direction moving forward.The Alternate labeling is below. Don't know if either pattern will complete today. If a w-x-y 4th wave correction completes as indicated, a trader may want to look at where wave w=y at 1096 which is also is in agreement with the most common Fib retracement for 4th waves of .382. This also is where the previous breakout occurred at A (red). Should provide support! Any trade above 1113 would most likely indicate that the correction was over. First order of business is how trade reacts to 1102.25. If it is supportive and trade breaches 1113, then wave v of c of wave 2 (blue)up could be underway. Should trade disrespect 1102.25 and continue lower, then I'll be looking carefully at 1096. Best of Trading. Mike
Fib and EWT are usually used by the uninformed and the clueless. But then, we need someone to be the 90+% that loses, so go for it
Tomorrow may bring a break above 1127.5 that increases the odds of alternate counts playing out. Rather than to recreate a lenghtly blog post, you can read more about it in my July 25, 2010 blog post at: http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2010/07/elliott-wave-live-week-in-review-for.html If you don't have time, then one word of caution. The current rally is getting tired as measured by many indicators. It is ripe for failure. Could the market extend further? Yes but 1127.5 is a previous 4th wave, so one needs to be looking for possible failures tomorrow. If the market penetrates 1127.5 cleanly and with upward thrust, then the next target is in the vicinity of 1136. Best of Trading
The ON session tested 1127.75 and failed. The June high was 1129.5 on the continuous contract. Jobless claims jumped by 2,000 and the market sold off. I'm looking for confirmation that a top is in place... meaning 5 waves down, followed by a 3 wave counter trend rally. Traders may want to consider short positions should this occur. Best of Trading
The market finished the week on another low volume affair. When we last spoke, I was looking at what appeared to be a triangle forming on the daily chart. The decline that I anticipated carried well beyond 1118 thus eliminating any further possibility of said interpretation. Corrective waves are always tricky because the pattern(s) and count can be complex in nature. Often, the pattern and count isn't identifiable until the wave structure has completed. Identifying the wave structure from the low of 1006 has been challenging. So stepping back, let's look at the big picture and work or way down to the daily level. The first chart is the weekly continuous combined contract for the S&P. I have identified a possible H& S pattern. The right shoulder (RS) appears to be building in a 3 wave structure. Notice that 1146 is resistance where Wave A = Wave C. This resistance is also chart resistance from the high of the Left Shoulder.