e-mini S&P Daytrading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by BenMillane, Jun 1, 2006.

  1. Hi Everybody,

    In the beginning of May we started a daily market commentary about the e-mini S&P.
    In addition, we’re tracking the performance of two e-mini S&P daytrading systems.

    Many traders told us that the daily market comment is very useful and helped them understanding what’s going on in the markets.

    So here we are:
    Every day we will provide a brief comment and an update on the e-mini S&P and an update on the two daytrading systems.

    The beauty of the comments: They’re in plain English (easy to understand) and usually quite short.

    The purpose of the comments is to give you an understanding why the market moved that day as it did,
    and hopefully this will help you predicting the market behavior in the future.

    Enjoy it. :)

  2. <b>Market Commentary and System Update for Jun 1st, 2006</b>

    This morning we had a whole bunch of economic reports: <ul><li>Initial Claims</li><li>Q1 Productivity (revised)</li><li>Construction Spending </li><li>ISM Index and</li><li>Crude Inventories</li></ul>At 12:00pm CST another two reports will be released:
    <ul> <li>Auto Sales and</li><li>Truck Sales</li></ul><p>The <strong>final Q1 productivity</strong> figure came in at 3.7% (consensus +3.9%) while unit labor costs rose 1.6%, below expectations of a 1.8% rise and a prior read of 2.5%, suggesting inflation remains contained. The <strong>ISM index</strong>fell a larger-than-expected 3 points to 54.4% in May. After the release of the <strong>Crude Inventories data</strong> oil prices are now trading at $71 a barrel again.</p> <p>At around noon the market traded off its best levels, but still positive as a tame inflation read and surprisingly good monthly retail sales help extend yesterday's recovery efforts.</p> <p>Then the auto sales were released, and the report was mixed:</p><ul><li><strong>General Motors</strong> reported a 16% drop in total vehicle sales, versus an expected 11% decline.</li><li><strong>Chrysler Group</strong> said total May sales fell 11%, also worse than expectations (consensus -8.6%). </li><li><strong>Ford Motor</strong> reported a 1.9% decline in total vehicle sales, which was better than the consensus of -7.6%.</li><li>As usual, Japanese rival <strong>Toyota Motor </strong>reported strong sales growth (+17%).</li>
    </ul>In the afternoon session stocks moved to new highs, mainly fueled by the Technology Sector, which is posting gains of more than 1.0%.
    <p><a href='http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php' target='_blank'><strong>SmartStart</strong></a> tried to enter the market this morning, but prices didnt' move far enough to reach our entry levels. Therefore the system doesn't have any trades today.</p><p><a href='http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php' target='_blank'><strong>EaglePro</strong></a> went short at 1275.00, and the system exited the trade on a time stop before the stop loss was hit.</p>
  3. <b>Market Commentary and System Update for Jun 2nd, 2006</b>

    <font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">This morning <strong>four employment-related reports</strong> were released:</font></p><ul> <li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Average Workweek</font></li><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Hourly Earnings</font></li><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Nonfarm Payrolls and</font></li><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Unemployment Rate</strong></font></li>
    </ul><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The May <strong>non-farm payrolls </strong>rose less than anticipated
    75K, April and March revised lower; <strong>Hourly earnings&nbsp;</strong>rose only 0.1% and <strong> Unemployment&nbsp;rate
    </strong>fell to 4.6%, leading to increased expectations that the Fed will pause at June 29 meeting.</font></p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Because of these data the stock market started on a positive note, but then Senior Iranian official reportedly said
    that Iran will press on with nuclear enrichment. This news let oil prices surge 2.2% near&nbsp;$72 a barrel and sent
    the stock market down. Later this afternoon there were reports that
    BP found undersea leaks in its huge Thunder Horse production platform in the Gulf of Mexico, giving Crude
    oil prices another push and let them close up 3.4% at $72.70 a barrel.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Shortly before the close there was a modest attempt by the bulls to erase the intraday losses and extending this week's
    winning streak to three days.And they succeeded: Though the e-mini S&amp;P closed 2 points below its open this morning, it's still 2 points above yesterday's close. </font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Early this morning&nbsp; <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php" target="_blank"><strong>EaglePro</strong></a>went short at 1290.50 and closed the trade with a small 0.75 point gain.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php" target="_blank"><strong>SmartStart</strong></a> went long later this morning and did fairly well, but when the market dropped because of the news from Iran our position was stopped out.</font></p>
  4. Thanks for these Ben.

    These can turn out to be a nice journal and track record for your systems. A request that I have is if you can include the $ value or point loss on the stop outs. In order to get a good feel for these, I know I would like to compare the gains vs. the losses. My guess is other ET members feel the same way.

  5. <b>Market Commentary and System Update for June 5th, 2006</b><br>
    <font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">This morning there is just one economic report:
    The <strong>ISM Index</strong> was released at 9:00am CST. The index dipped to 60.1 from 63.0 in April, still showing solid expansion
    but nevertheless it fell and the market remains extremely sensitive to any signs of weakness in economic data. </font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Crude oil prices surging 1.7% to their highest level (above $73.50 a barrel) in more than three weeks after
    Iran warned the U.S. yesterday that any action against its nuclear facilities would disrupt oil shipments. </font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">At around noon the major indices are trading near their worst levels of the day&nbsp;on heightened geopolitical concerns and a mixed economic report. </font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the afternoon Fed Chairman Bernanke participated in a panel discussion at the American Bankers Association
    International Monetary Conference and was talking about international monetary policy. Bernanke said consumer
    spending has "decelerated noticeably" in recent months and that core inflation has reached a level that, if sustained,
    would be "at or above the upper end of the range" that many economists and himself would consider consistent
    with price stability. Due to such "unwelcome developments," the Fed must anchor long-term inflation expectations.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">And oups - he did it again: This statement let the bottom fall out of the market and drove all major indices at least 1.5% lower.</font></p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Both our trading systems <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php" target="_blank"><strong>SmartStart</strong></a> and <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php" target="_blank"><strong>EaglePro</strong></a> try to enter the market this morning, but prices didn't move
    far enough to fill our orders. Therefore we didn't have any trades today.</font>
  6. <b>Market Commentary and System Update for June 6th, 2006</b>
    <p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">There were no economic reports today. Many refer to today's date (6/6/6) as an &quot;evil day&quot; or even &quot;devil's day&quot;,
    and maybe that's the reason why the stock market tank again this morning.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">As there were no notable earnings and or economic data to be released today, traders still sift through yesterday's
    comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke; trying to find more hints whether the Fed will raise interest rates on
    the FOMC meeting on June 28-29 or not.

    Investors put the focus on next week's influential<strong> PPI and CPI data</strong>. If the May core CPI comes in at 0.3% for a third
    consecutive month next Wednesday, the Fed Chairman will be pressured to <strong>raise rates for a 17th straight time</strong>
    at the June 29 meeting, regardless of the incoming economic data. </font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the afternoon session prices moved in a wide range between 1256 and 1266:
    Prices bounced back around noon, headed south again and rallied into the close.</font></p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php"><strong>SmartStart</strong></a> went long this morning and <strong>realized a 3.5 point winner ($175).</strong><br /><br />&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php"><strong>EaglePro</strong></a> went long, too, and the system tried to realize a 10 point winner (=$500). During the range-bound trading
    in the afternoon our open equity moved between -$300 and +$250. Since prices didn't seem to go anywhere
    we closed the position at 2:00pm CST with a $175 loss.</font>
  7. <b>Market Commentary and System Update for June 7th, 2006</b><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Today we had a bunch of Fed guys testifying before the Senate committee today:</font></p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">At 8:00am CST former Fed Chairman Greenspan started testifying on oil and the economy.
    His remarks were fairly balanced and in the end had little impact on trading: He said that
    recent data indicate consumers finally exeriencing some impact of higher oil prices.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Be that as it may, more hawkish commentary later today, this time from Atlanta Fed President Guynn,
    coupled with an early-afternoon Anthrax scare in the U.K (the House of Commons has been locked down
    after Anthrax was found), provided the perfect excuses to get back to doing what a nervous market
    has done for several weeks - SELLING. The e-mini S&amp;P closed at its session low.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Our trading system<strong><a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php" target="_blank">SmartStart</a></strong> went short this morning and <strong>realized a 3.75 point profit (=$175)</strong>.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Our trading system <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php" target="_blank"><strong>EaglePro</strong></a> went short, too, looking to realize a larger profit goal of 6.25 point
    profit target (=$312.50). At around 2:00pm the market didn't want to go much lower, and therefore
    the system closed the position with a <strong>profit of 1.75 points (=$87.50).</strong></font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">
    The past two days have been great days for <strong><a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/combo.htm" target="_blank">&quot;The Combo&quot;</a></strong>, too:<br>SmartStart compensated Eagle Pro's loss yesterday, and today<br>both systems achieved a <strong>combined profit of 5.50 points (=$262.50).</strong></font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">For more information regarding all three trading systems please visit:<br><a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com" target="_blank"><strong>http://www.rockwelltrading.com</strong></a></font></p>
  8. <b>Market Commentary and System Update for June 8th, 2006</b><br><br><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>What a rollercoaster ride!</strong> First the e-mini S&amp;Pwent down 25 points and then shoots back up 27 points
    to close only 2 points higher than it opened today.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Let's take a look what happened:</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Two economic reports</strong> were released this morning:</font></p><ul><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Initial Claims </strong>(at 7:30am CST) and</font></li><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Wholesale Inventories</strong> (at 9:00am CST)</font></li></ul><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong> Initial claims</strong> fell&nbsp;35K to 302K (consensus 330K) and this larger than expected drop gave the stock index market a slight boost.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">But overall there's a negative tone: Investors worry that the Fed is going too far with its tightening efforts
    and that another raise of interest rates might slow the economy significantly, which poses a threat to economic
    and earnings growth around the world.&nbsp; In fact, not even confirmation of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's death
    and subsequent spike in oil prices below $70 per barrel has been enough to improve the underlying negative tone for the market.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Today the ECB raised interest rates 1/4% to 2.75% and South Korea's central bank unexpectedly hiked
    its key rate to 4.25%. Worldwide the markets are reacting nervous to the uncertainty
    regarding interest rates:</font></p>
    <ul><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Japan's Nikkei 225 index </strong>plunged 3.1% to its lowest level in six months, </font></li><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica,sans-serif"><strong>Hong Kong </strong>declined 2.3%, </font></li><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>India </strong>dropped 4.7% </font></li><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Korea </strong>fell 3.5% to a seven-month low and</font></li><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">all of the <strong>major European bourses </strong>are down roughly 1.5%. </font></li></ul><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">And of course the Fed guys don't want to shut up: Today Fed Governor Kohn, who served as Greenspan's top strategist
    and largely reflects the former Fed Chief's thinking, has become the fifth central banker this week to say he's found recent
    inflation data somewhat troubling. Thanks for helping to send the markets down.</font></p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the afternoon the stocks got a push from optimistic White House economists and rallied into the close.
    President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers said the U.S. economy will accelerate from last year's pace
    of 3.2% to 3.6% in 2006 and inflation will remain tame, with CPI now expected to rise 3.0% this year, down from 3.7% in 2005.
    Well, let's see....</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Our trading system<strong><a target="_blank"href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php"> SmartStart </a></strong>established a long position this morning and got stopped out with a $412.50
    loss when the market dropped like a rock. So our&nbsp; <strong>two-day winning streak</strong> stopped today.</font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><a target="_blank"href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php"><strong>EaglePro</strong></a> went short with two contracts this morning, and we realized a <strong>total profit of $400</strong>.</font><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br /></font></p>
  9. <b>Market Commentary and System Update for June 9th, 2006</b><br><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Three economic reports </strong>this morning, all out at 7:30am CST:</font></p><ul><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Export Prices</strong> ex-ag.</font></li><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Import Prices</strong> ex-oil</font></li><li><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Trade Balance</strong></font></li></ul><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The <strong>trade balance</strong> widened to $63.4 billion in&nbsp;April from $61.9 billion last month and <strong>import prices </strong>rose 1.6% in May,
    versus a forecast of 0.7%. This is causing inflation concerns a bit, but next week's <strong>PPI</strong> and <strong>CPI</strong> remain the main
    focal point for the market. <strong>Fed Chairman Bernanke</strong>, who rattled the market earlier this week with tough talk on inflation,
    was speaking today at the commencement ceremony for MIT, but he didn't offer any new monetary policy insight. </font></p><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Overall it has been a typical summer Friday today, and there hasn't been a whole lot of conviction on either side of the aisle.
    Until noon the markets moved down, then they rebounded in the afternoon but sellers were in control in
    the last 30min before the market closed. So we finish the fifth down day in a row. Next week will be an exciting week again,
    since we're having a bunch of important economic reports coming up. </font></p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php"><strong>EaglePro</strong></a> was on a roll this morning: <strong>One short trade</strong> followed by <strong>a long trade </strong>a few minutes later.
    Both trades are closed with a&nbsp; <strong>total profit of $362.50</strong>. These trades boost <a target="_blank" href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php"><strong>EaglePro's</strong></a>
    profits to a whopping <strong>17 points (=$850) per contract </strong>in the past three days. </font><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><p><font size="2">Our more conservative trading system<strong> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php">SmartStart</a></strong> didnt' place any orders today.</font></p></font><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Have a great weekend. :)</font></p>
  10. <b>Market Commentary and System Update for June 12th, 2006</b><p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Another down-day today, as again sellers were in total control of trading towards the close.
    The Cleveland Fed President Pianalto, a voting member of the monetary policy committee,
    said the rate of inflation &quot;exceeds my comfort level&quot;. This spurred fears that policy makers
    will go too far with their tightening efforts. The main focus of investors is on Wednesday's CPI data,
    since this report is&nbsp; the only &quot;incoming data&quot; on consumer inflation prior to
    the next FOMC meeting on June 29.</font></p><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">It started very quiet in the morning: <strong>No economic reports </strong>were scheduled today, no notable earnings reports
    and no major announcements. For most of the day the market was wiggling around, unable to find any direction.
    But then in the afternoon sellers took control and sent the market down.</font></p>
    <font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Both our trading systems <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php" target="_blank"><strong>EaglePro</strong></a> and <strong><a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php" target="_blank">SmartStart</a></strong> went long this morning and did fairly well for most of the day.
    But when the market started to fall in the afternoon we got stopped out and realized a loss of $400 and $450 respectively.<br/>
    #10     Jun 12, 2006