e-mini S&P Daytrading Journal

BenMillane · Jun 1, 2006

Hi Everybody,

In the beginning of May we started a daily market commentary about the e-mini S&P.
In addition, weâre tracking the performance of two e-mini S&P daytrading systems.

Many traders told us that the daily market comment is very useful and helped them understanding whatâs going on in the markets.

So here we are:
Every day we will provide a brief comment and an update on the e-mini S&P and an update on the two daytrading systems.

The beauty of the comments: Theyâre in plain English (easy to understand) and usually quite short.

The purpose of the comments is to give you an understanding why the market moved that day as it did,
and hopefully this will help you predicting the market behavior in the future.

Enjoy it.

Ben

BenMillane · Jun 1, 2006

Market Commentary and System Update for Jun 1st, 2006

This morning we had a whole bunch of economic reports: <ul><li>Initial Claims</li><li>Q1 Productivity (revised)</li><li>Construction Spending </li><li>ISM Index and</li><li>Crude Inventories</li></ul>At 12:00pm CST another two reports will be released:
<ul> <li>Auto Sales and</li><li>Truck Sales</li></ul>The final Q1 productivity figure came in at 3.7% (consensus +3.9%) while unit labor costs rose 1.6%, below expectations of a 1.8% rise and a prior read of 2.5%, suggesting inflation remains contained. The ISM indexfell a larger-than-expected 3 points to 54.4% in May. After the release of the Crude Inventories data oil prices are now trading at $71 a barrel again. At around noon the market traded off its best levels, but still positive as a tame inflation read and surprisingly good monthly retail sales help extend yesterday's recovery efforts. Then the auto sales were released, and the report was mixed:<ul><li>General Motors reported a 16% drop in total vehicle sales, versus an expected 11% decline.</li><li>Chrysler Group said total May sales fell 11%, also worse than expectations (consensus -8.6%). </li><li>Ford Motor reported a 1.9% decline in total vehicle sales, which was better than the consensus of -7.6%.</li><li>As usual, Japanese rival Toyota Motor reported strong sales growth (+17%).</li>
</ul>In the afternoon session stocks moved to new highs, mainly fueled by the Technology Sector, which is posting gains of more than 1.0%.
<a href='http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php' target='_blank'>SmartStart</a> tried to enter the market this morning, but prices didnt' move far enough to reach our entry levels. Therefore the system doesn't have any trades today.<a href='http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php' target='_blank'>EaglePro</a> went short at 1275.00, and the system exited the trade on a time stop before the stop loss was hit.

BenMillane · Jun 2, 2006

Market Commentary and System Update for Jun 2nd, 2006

This morning four employment-related reports were released:<ul> <li>Average Workweek</li><li>Hourly Earnings</li><li>Nonfarm Payrolls and</li><li>Unemployment Rate</li>
</ul>The May non-farm payrolls rose less than anticipated
75K, April and March revised lower; Hourly earnings rose only 0.1% and Unemployment rate
fell to 4.6%, leading to increased expectations that the Fed will pause at June 29 meeting.Because of these data the stock market started on a positive note, but then Senior Iranian official reportedly said
that Iran will press on with nuclear enrichment. This news let oil prices surge 2.2% near $72 a barrel and sent
the stock market down. Later this afternoon there were reports that
BP found undersea leaks in its huge Thunder Horse production platform in the Gulf of Mexico, giving Crude
oil prices another push and let them close up 3.4% at $72.70 a barrel.Shortly before the close there was a modest attempt by the bulls to erase the intraday losses and extending this week's
winning streak to three days.And they succeeded: Though the e-mini S&P closed 2 points below its open this morning, it's still 2 points above yesterday's close. Early this morning  <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php" target="_blank">EaglePro</a>went short at 1290.50 and closed the trade with a small 0.75 point gain.<a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php" target="_blank">SmartStart</a> went long later this morning and did fairly well, but when the market dropped because of the news from Iran our position was stopped out.

brownsfan019 · Jun 3, 2006

Thanks for these Ben.

These can turn out to be a nice journal and track record for your systems. A request that I have is if you can include the $ value or point loss on the stop outs. In order to get a good feel for these, I know I would like to compare the gains vs. the losses. My guess is other ET members feel the same way.

Thanks!

BenMillane · Jun 5, 2006

Market Commentary and System Update for June 5th, 2006 
This morning there is just one economic report:
The ISM Index was released at 9:00am CST. The index dipped to 60.1 from 63.0 in April, still showing solid expansion
but nevertheless it fell and the market remains extremely sensitive to any signs of weakness in economic data. Crude oil prices surging 1.7% to their highest level (above $73.50 a barrel) in more than three weeks after
Iran warned the U.S. yesterday that any action against its nuclear facilities would disrupt oil shipments. At around noon the major indices are trading near their worst levels of the day on heightened geopolitical concerns and a mixed economic report. In the afternoon Fed Chairman Bernanke participated in a panel discussion at the American Bankers Association
International Monetary Conference and was talking about international monetary policy. Bernanke said consumer
spending has "decelerated noticeably" in recent months and that core inflation has reached a level that, if sustained,
would be "at or above the upper end of the range" that many economists and himself would consider consistent
with price stability. Due to such "unwelcome developments," the Fed must anchor long-term inflation expectations.And oups - he did it again: This statement let the bottom fall out of the market and drove all major indices at least 1.5% lower.Both our trading systems <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php" target="_blank">SmartStart</a> and <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php" target="_blank">EaglePro</a> try to enter the market this morning, but prices didn't move
far enough to fill our orders. Therefore we didn't have any trades today.

BenMillane · Jun 6, 2006

Market Commentary and System Update for June 6th, 2006
There were no economic reports today. Many refer to today's date (6/6/6) as an "evil day" or even "devil's day",
and maybe that's the reason why the stock market tank again this morning.As there were no notable earnings and or economic data to be released today, traders still sift through yesterday's
comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke; trying to find more hints whether the Fed will raise interest rates on
the FOMC meeting on June 28-29 or not.

Investors put the focus on next week's influential PPI and CPI data. If the May core CPI comes in at 0.3% for a third
consecutive month next Wednesday, the Fed Chairman will be pressured to raise rates for a 17th straight time
at the June 29 meeting, regardless of the incoming economic data. In the afternoon session prices moved in a wide range between 1256 and 1266:
Prices bounced back around noon, headed south again and rallied into the close. <a target="_blank" href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php">SmartStart</a> went long this morning and realized a 3.5 point winner ($175).  <a target="_blank" href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php">EaglePro</a> went long, too, and the system tried to realize a 10 point winner (=$500). During the range-bound trading
in the afternoon our open equity moved between -$300 and +$250. Since prices didn't seem to go anywhere
we closed the position at 2:00pm CST with a $175 loss.

BenMillane · Jun 7, 2006

Market Commentary and System Update for June 7th, 2006Today we had a bunch of Fed guys testifying before the Senate committee today:At 8:00am CST former Fed Chairman Greenspan started testifying on oil and the economy.
His remarks were fairly balanced and in the end had little impact on trading: He said that
recent data indicate consumers finally exeriencing some impact of higher oil prices.Be that as it may, more hawkish commentary later today, this time from Atlanta Fed President Guynn,
coupled with an early-afternoon Anthrax scare in the U.K (the House of Commons has been locked down
after Anthrax was found), provided the perfect excuses to get back to doing what a nervous market
has done for several weeks - SELLING. The e-mini S&P closed at its session low.Our trading system<a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php" target="_blank">SmartStart</a> went short this morning and realized a 3.75 point profit (=$175).Our trading system <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php" target="_blank">EaglePro</a> went short, too, looking to realize a larger profit goal of 6.25 point
profit target (=$312.50). At around 2:00pm the market didn't want to go much lower, and therefore
the system closed the position with a profit of 1.75 points (=$87.50).
The past two days have been great days for <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/combo.htm" target="_blank">"The Combo"</a>, too: SmartStart compensated Eagle Pro's loss yesterday, and today both systems achieved a combined profit of 5.50 points (=$262.50).For more information regarding all three trading systems please visit: <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com" target="_blank">http://www.rockwelltrading.com</a>

BenMillane · Jun 8, 2006

Market Commentary and System Update for June 8th, 2006 What a rollercoaster ride! First the e-mini S&Pwent down 25 points and then shoots back up 27 points
to close only 2 points higher than it opened today.Let's take a look what happened:Two economic reports were released this morning:<ul><li>Initial Claims (at 7:30am CST) and</li><li>Wholesale Inventories (at 9:00am CST)</li></ul> Initial claims fell 35K to 302K (consensus 330K) and this larger than expected drop gave the stock index market a slight boost.But overall there's a negative tone: Investors worry that the Fed is going too far with its tightening efforts
and that another raise of interest rates might slow the economy significantly, which poses a threat to economic
and earnings growth around the world.  In fact, not even confirmation of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's death
and subsequent spike in oil prices below $70 per barrel has been enough to improve the underlying negative tone for the market.Today the ECB raised interest rates 1/4% to 2.75% and South Korea's central bank unexpectedly hiked
its key rate to 4.25%. Worldwide the markets are reacting nervous to the uncertainty
regarding interest rates:
<ul><li>Japan's Nikkei 225 index plunged 3.1% to its lowest level in six months, </li><li>Hong Kong declined 2.3%, </li><li>India dropped 4.7% </li><li>Korea fell 3.5% to a seven-month low and</li><li>all of the major European bourses are down roughly 1.5%. </li></ul>And of course the Fed guys don't want to shut up: Today Fed Governor Kohn, who served as Greenspan's top strategist
and largely reflects the former Fed Chief's thinking, has become the fifth central banker this week to say he's found recent
inflation data somewhat troubling. Thanks for helping to send the markets down.In the afternoon the stocks got a push from optimistic White House economists and rallied into the close.
President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers said the U.S. economy will accelerate from last year's pace
of 3.2% to 3.6% in 2006 and inflation will remain tame, with CPI now expected to rise 3.0% this year, down from 3.7% in 2005.
Well, let's see....Our trading system<a target="_blank"href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php"> SmartStart </a>established a long position this morning and got stopped out with a $412.50
loss when the market dropped like a rock. So our  two-day winning streak stopped today.<a target="_blank"href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php">EaglePro</a> went short with two contracts this morning, and we realized a total profit of $400.

BenMillane · Jun 9, 2006

Market Commentary and System Update for June 9th, 2006 Three economic reports this morning, all out at 7:30am CST:<ul><li>Export Prices ex-ag.</li><li>Import Prices ex-oil</li><li>Trade Balance</li></ul>The trade balance widened to $63.4 billion in April from $61.9 billion last month and import prices rose 1.6% in May,
versus a forecast of 0.7%. This is causing inflation concerns a bit, but next week's PPI and CPI remain the main
focal point for the market. Fed Chairman Bernanke, who rattled the market earlier this week with tough talk on inflation,
was speaking today at the commencement ceremony for MIT, but he didn't offer any new monetary policy insight. Overall it has been a typical summer Friday today, and there hasn't been a whole lot of conviction on either side of the aisle.
Until noon the markets moved down, then they rebounded in the afternoon but sellers were in control in
the last 30min before the market closed. So we finish the fifth down day in a row. Next week will be an exciting week again,
since we're having a bunch of important economic reports coming up. <a target="_blank" href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php">EaglePro</a> was on a roll this morning: One short trade followed by a long trade a few minutes later.
Both trades are closed with a  total profit of $362.50. These trades boost <a target="_blank" href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php">EaglePro's</a>
profits to a whopping 17 points (=$850) per contract in the past three days. Our more conservative trading system <a target="_blank" href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php">SmartStart</a> didnt' place any orders today.Have a great weekend.

BenMillane · Jun 12, 2006

Market Commentary and System Update for June 12th, 2006Another down-day today, as again sellers were in total control of trading towards the close.
The Cleveland Fed President Pianalto, a voting member of the monetary policy committee,
said the rate of inflation "exceeds my comfort level". This spurred fears that policy makers
will go too far with their tightening efforts. The main focus of investors is on Wednesday's CPI data,
since this report is  the only "incoming data" on consumer inflation prior to
the next FOMC meeting on June 29.It started very quiet in the morning: No economic reports were scheduled today, no notable earnings reports
and no major announcements. For most of the day the market was wiggling around, unable to find any direction.
But then in the afternoon sellers took control and sent the market down.
Both our trading systems <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/eagle_pro.php" target="_blank">EaglePro</a> and <a href="http://www.rockwelltrading.com/system/smartstart.php" target="_blank">SmartStart</a> went long this morning and did fairly well for most of the day.
But when the market started to fall in the afternoon we got stopped out and realized a loss of $400 and $450 respectively.