Redzuk-- I don't know if this will help or not, but it's how I feel. If I blowup my acct., I will be back even if I have to wait tables to build up a grubstake again. If I blowup with that, I will clean toilets if I have to in order to build another grubstake. I think you have just as good a chance as anybody to make it. Persistence, I think, is a big part of the key. Just keep at it bud. Goodluck and keep us posted.
Are you looking to short rising wedges and buy falling ones as the TA textbooks say? Or are you looking to short breakouts after a rising wedge (fading the slow grind up then climax) and buying breakdowns out of a falling wedge (catching the eventual panic after steady price deterioration)? The reason I ask is that there is a big difference in philosophy between the two strategies, even though they seem to be along the same lines. Also, are you trading purely off formations on the NQ 3min chart? I once attempted scalping the NQ a few years back, and paid my broker 4x my equity in commissions before finally blowing that account out (so take any advice I post here with a grain of salt! ) I've only recently looked into re-funding my futures account because of a greater understanding behind movements in certain sectors vis a vis the NQ. Some people adhere to the K.I.S.S. principle of trading, yet in this case I think you will need as much of an edge as possible in sniffing out the direction of the next move; ie, which stocks are the current leaders/laggers on the nasdaq? Which sectors? These change almost every week if not every day. Especially with market direction so fragmented as it is now (Dow tumbling as Nasdaq barely dribbles, then DJ skyrocketing and holding steady while NDX pukes up its gains), IMO it's more important than ever to be in tune to factors beyond the direct chart at hand. Not trying to rush you if you've decided on taking it one step at a time, but keep in mind Trend Fader's and others' posts on entries vs exits; if you can manage to be flexible on entries and rock-steady on the exits, you should eventually be able to find a surprising number of setups while keeping the "tuition costs" to a minimum. Good luck!
illiquid-- I'm looking to buy on the breakout or sell the breakdown of the wedge. Come to think of it, I may be talking about triangle patterns. In any case my definition is that of having one horizontal leg and another leg with either lower highs or lower lows leading into point. No, I don't trade primarily off chart formations. In fact I use it mostly as a reference. Price action is what I mainly base my decisions on. There were a few times in the past where I used no charts at all and did OK but I felt a little naked. I definitely look to market conditions for some kind of bias while trading. Something as simple as being leery to breakouts on down days or, more esoterically, looking for "bubbles" within my stock blotter for clues. Bubbles not in the way you might think.
trend fader: I am a slave to the actions of the markets. **************************************************** so am i. trend fader: The point is that I like to think of the markets as a function of randomness that still can be played to make money. Test some random entries into the NQ with strategical exits (ie. S/R, volatility, whatever). Then test some strategic entries with random exits. Then please let us all know what happens. I almost guarantee you that after a few years of trading your account will be wiped out on random exits. **************************************************** maybe you misunderstood something. i don't deal with random exits. i have an entry based on a specific setup - i have a fixed stop loss - and a fixed trailing stop (->strategic exit). i guess you try to make this a science (or whatever) - i try to keep it simple (still). trend fader: You are trying to say that if you don't have an ideal entry than your exit will automatically be poor. I say nonsense. What is an ideal entry? I have seen traders that were up 20 points in the less than 5 min give away all the profits and take a loss. At the same time.. My entry was later then there's yet I managed to make a tidy profit? **************************************************** i say having a random entry is gambling. and giving away a 20 point gain would be pure stupidity.
Overall financial goal in trading ? Sum of profits coming out of your winning trades (minus) sum of losses coming out of your losing trades (minus) commision > 0 Sum of losses: hit rate and average loss are correlated, means, if you try to lower your avg loss/stop/risk, your hit rate will be infected and vice versa. but the SUM of losses will stay the same, you cant lower it beyond a critical level. so, to work on your hit rat (entry), especialy by lowering your stop might not be that rewarding IMO. Sum of profits: thatâs the field to work on IMO ! and it deals with exits.
i LIKE to think/dream of the markets as a never ending process of evolving pattern ("trend" is the greatest pattern of all). take a look at the USD/EUR chart over the last 2 or 3 years. isn't it great ? trading
Trending days give me a headache. When there's also a gap, it turns into a migraine. All my plays go out the window and I'm left in kind of a limboland, always looking for a reversal. I don't think I'm mature enough as a trader to play these days to their full potential. One of these days I'll figure it out. Hopefully. Thankfully I ended in positive territory, so I won't bitch too much. I'll post a chart in a bit. +5 points / 4 RT's / acct: $4017.60
Bronks, regarding big gap days: Most experienced traders will tell you that they usually continue in the direction of the gap. Pick an entry, set a stop (and keep moving it up) , and ride the trend until you are stopped out by lower prices. None of the indicators work worth a damn on trending days. And when you get a big gap suspect a trending day. Good luck. ~EC