Is it me, or is the greatest scalping strategy in the universe just fading every single move up in one direction? Basically if you look at a 1 min chart and look at all the 1 min bars that have moved up 7-10 ticks in 1 min, if you just fade that move for 7-10 ticks, you're making money like 90% of the time. Is it just me? I mean even though the market keeps going up, there's absolutely no point in ever buying a new high, it comes back 99% of the time. Obviously ignoring economic releases here.
I've observed the same thing on many instruments from index futures to stocks to forex. Big, sudden moves always correct. Sometimes 100% of the move is corrected.
its unbelievable how hard you have to fight and how long you have to sit there and how much heat you have to take if you actually want to capitalize on momentum on one direction, ESPECIALLY IF ITS BREAKING ANY KIND OF "LEVEL".
I should just set up a hedge fund to automatically fade all of my trades. Buying new highs is the dumbest thing you can do.
Trust me, the fade never ends. Then you have to set up a limited partnership with your father-in-laws money to fade the hedge fund. etc etc... Its easier looking back. On some days, it makes new highs all day long. Like 35 new highs... But, being able to see if it is going to be such a day and adjusting accordingly would be the optimum way to trade.
ok seriously, im just doing some random backtesting right now looking at 1 min data over the last 2 years. This strategy is so simple its pretty pathetic, so obviously I'm a little leery of it, there must be a reason why it doesn't work. Just look at any day doesn't matter...if the market goes up 10 ticks in 2 min or less, you just sell it. Your target is 10 ticks and your stop is 10 ticks. You're winning there like 75% of the time at least, are you not? I suppose a good filter would be if you get stopped out like 3 times in a row just quit for the day, you don't want to get screwed on big up days. And then you can set a trailing stop if it moves say 7-9 ticks in your directions, just get out at break even. Someone please tell me why this strategy doesn't work, I'm skeptical.
that's true, obviously you're going to have big moves up, but a lot of them are slow creepers where you could be shorting and covering lower all day.
don't look for reason why it shouldn't work, look for reason why it should, believe in yourself, trust your institution, think outside the box etc..