As I said, you can figure out the ndx bid and ask (by using not the last price but the last bid/ask update of each second) and compare that to the nq bid/ask (which is what I did.) The only way you can make this more exact is by going sub-second, don't know of any data providers that have time stamps in milliseconds. None of this is that important. I did this to see if knowing the difference between the ndx and nq could tell me something about where both are going, and couldn't really find anything usefull (might have missed something of course.) And of course if you are watching the NDX ticker distributed by NASDAQ, then yes the nq will lead that, as that is calculated only once every 15 seconds (or is it 10?) Voodoo
voodoo_invest regardless of delays in the cash indicie or the futures, ( which is also delayed as it is traded in the pit, so therefore there is a delay from the pit to the data distribution), or whether the cash is arbitraged to the big or mini, or whether the mini is arbitraged to the big, or whether the moon is full of not - the futures lead the cash
DblArrow i dont think it would make a difference to world poverty- but it would cetainly have an impact on me getting a porsche or not!
I have to agree here....we teach to have the spot and the futures numbers right next to each other so you can see which is leading. If the spot price is leading, then there is something happening in the underlying stocks (i.e. IBM or INTC the other day), which is important when you have a "weighted basket" to use for your futures "pre indicator"... If the futures are leading the spot (which is more common), then you are more likely to read the next few seconds movements correctly.
I might habor a thought of "cash lead future" sometime but all successful trade I know agree on "future lead cash". So future lead cash it is.
don i guess you are looking at it from a stocks perspective - which may make sense - although i dont know, as i have not traded stocks but it is an important point to understand that futures - as you yourself say - mostly lead the cash - regardless they are always trying to move the cash and thats what causes the cash arbitrage
Yes, the futures do lead the cash (spot) most of the time. Looking at it from a futures trader in the pit standpoint, it makes sense this way. When we can buy futures under fair value, great, and hopefully sell tham back....but if we cannot, then be "hedge" them with stock baskets (or the whole S&P 500 if need by). The initial momentum is usually coming from the institutions who are "leaning" on their own internal orders, or creating "inventory" for their customers. When a firm gets a large stock order from an insitutional customer, they will often buy futures in anticipation of having to buy and provide the shares for that customer, and then simply sell the futures back (most likely with a profit). This type of activity is ongoing during the trading day, but is more prevalent right at the opening of the market.