DYNAMIC PIVOTS GbpUsd (DAILY,WEEKLY,MONTHLY) updated MR3 12756 MR2 12709 ATR HB 12694 MR1 12633 DPP 12598 MS1 12537 MS2 12521 ATR LB 12502 MS3 12441 WMR3 12918 WMR2 12833 WMR1 12711 WPP 12683 WMS1 12543 WMS2 12476 WMS3 12411 MMR3 1.3341 MMR2 1.3166 MMR1 1.2991 MPP 1.2701 MMS1 1.2526 MMS2 1.2237 MMS3 1.2062
Weekly trades: 08/01 06:30 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2169 1.2182 08/01 06:56 -13 08/01 07:03 EUR/USD BUY 1.2189 1.2173 08/01 07:57 -16 08/01 07:59 EUR/USD BUY 1.2190 1.2189 08/01 08:09 -1 08/01 07:02 GBP/USD BUY 1.7626 1.7666 08/01 08:40 40 08/01 07:03 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2814 1.2780 08/01 08:41 34 08/01 10:38 GBP/USD BUY 1.7679 1.7673 08/01 11:31 -6 08/01 10:38 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2757 1.2758 08/01 11:33 -1 08/01 11:31 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7671 1.7677 08/01 11:47 -6 08/01 10:39 EUR/USD BUY 1.2228 1.2219 08/01 11:53 -9 08/02 01:30 GBP/USD BUY 1.7706 1.7712 08/02 02:37 6 08/02 01:16 EUR/USD BUY 1.2207 1.2209 08/02 02:41 2 08/02 00:33 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2771 1.2764 08/02 02:57 7 08/02 04:12 GBP/USD BUY 1.7723 1.7711 08/02 04:28 -12 08/02 05:52 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7698 1.7697 08/02 07:26 1 08/02 07:08 USD/CHF BUY 1.2779 1.2761 08/02 07:29 -18 08/02 07:35 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2745 1.2741 08/02 08:19 4 08/02 07:35 GBP/USD BUY 1.7711 1.7722 08/02 08:53 11 08/02 07:34 EUR/USD BUY 1.2217 1.2221 08/02 09:19 4 08/02 12:31 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2207 1.2221 08/02 12:37 -14 08/02 12:32 USD/CHF BUY 1.2748 1.2730 08/02 12:42 -18 08/02 12:31 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7718 1.7734 08/02 12:48 -16 08/02 12:48 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2718 1.2724 08/02 13:05 -6 08/02 12:43 EUR/USD BUY 1.2226 1.2221 08/02 13:06 -5 08/02 13:06 USD/CHF BUY 1.2732 1.2768 08/02 17:06 36 08/02 21:26 GBP/USD BUY 1.7722 1.7710 08/02 22:16 -12 08/03 06:24 GBP/USD BUY 1.7682 1.7697 08/03 07:39 15 08/03 08:43 GBP/USD BUY 1.7734 1.7801 08/03 10:50 67 08/03 06:21 EUR/USD BUY 1.2178 1.2308 08/03 10:58 130 08/03 06:24 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2781 1.2668 08/03 11:04 113 08/04 12:42 USD/CHF BUY 1.2645 1.2632 08/04 13:00 -13 08/04 14:36 GBP/USD BUY 1.7784 1.7801 08/04 15:47 17 08/04 15:51 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7787 1.7806 08/04 16:58 -19 Total weekly results (2 lots): +604 pips
how are you using these pivot points to determine your entry and how are the pivot points calculated?
Dynamic Pivots EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF Average True Range High Band 1.2461 1.7934 1.2703 Matsys Resistance 1.2409 1.7866 1.2643 Pivot Point 1.2353 1.7818 1.2578 Matsys Support 1.2301 1.7753 1.2521 Average True Range Low Band 1.2276 1.7701 1.2462
Daily comment Sun 7 Aug 2005 The longer term Thursday, the euro closed at 1.2388. We assumed then that there would be good support at 1.2350 for further gains. We also thought this level to hold through the announcement of NFP and initial claims. But the numbers were much better than expected, and it triggered some euro sell-off -- maybe corporate profits returning to the USA. However, persistant buyers stepped in on the scene whenever the price went below 1.2320, and the week ended at 1.2360. Friday's fight between the bulls and the bears may continue Monday, but we think it will be short-lived, and we are in a period of euro retracement since the low in early July. On our web at we show three long-range Matsys-T charts. For the most parts the forex community does not have the patience to wait 3-4 months or more, so it is not interesting to publish long range signals. However, you will notice that we have closed eur and gbp short and usd/chf long, and a new position on eur long has been opened. There may be more opportunities to buy into eur at dips below 1.2320 for a longer term strategy.
Market comments With the broader market fixated by the FOMC meeting tomorrow the JPY attracted much of the attention overnight after the postal vote defeat for PM Koizumi meant [EUR/JPY] flows dominated the direction. Into Europe and with no key data the USD was initially favoured and trading eased towards 1.2315 before more Middle-Eastern accounts again bought in good size. The pair rallied and removed stops above 1.2360 before selling at 1.2375 capped the move. After a period of consolidation the next leg higher was put through on the back of cable triggering stops and trading ran up to 1.2390 before the next layer of offers were found. The market reaction to the much hyped 25bp hike will be key but bulls are still looking for the EUR to get a boost from the EZ Q2 GDP data due Thursday. Stops are noted above 1.2400 while there is also talk of a possible expiry at the price at the NY cut (14:00 GMT). If the EUR rally can extend to above 1.2400 then the option barriers at 1.2420, 1.2450 and 1.2500 will continue to draw speculation as to the size of the protection that is noted ahead of them.
The CHF took no initial comfort from the Swiss data released this morning, Swiss Unemployment for July was reported at 3.5% to match expectations, as the overnight news from Japan kept the USD underpinned on the back of JPY weakness. Into Europe and USD selling across the board was again the theme and more Middle-Eastern buying of the EUR helped [USD/CHF] offers at 1.2675/80 to cap. Spot was then sold-off back to 1.2590 as the higher levels offered better levels to sell. With trading now holding near 1.2600 after stops were taken out the next layer of sell-stops are noted below 1.2580. Offers are seen at 1.2615/20 with good bids 1.2575. Dealers suggest that until the 1.2565/2675 range is broken the short-term direction maybe sideways. Much of the focus is directed at the FOMC rate decision tomorrow where another 25bp hike is expected. [EUR/CHF] trading has pivoted around 1.5600 in Europe after the failure last week at 1.5625. [GBP/CHF] Early two-way between UK names worked a Franc weakness angle and trading ran up to 2.2530/35 where better sized offers capped emerged to cap.
NY opening August 8: High and rising interest rates, widening rate differentials, a significant growth differential over the Euro zone, none of these are helping the USD much is this morning as the market focuses on reserve diversification by oil producing nations. With oil trading close to $63, that trend is likely to remain with us for a while. EUR/USD stalled at Friday"s post-payrolls high of 1.2390, but pullbacks have been shallow. 1.2360 should provide support on dips near-term while barriers at 1.2420 should provide some supply on rallies as the holders defend them. The US calendar is empty so expect oil prices to dominate the early action with higher oil leading to a higher EUR.
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Small stops are eyed EUR/USD is modestly easier, trading just below 1.2370. Dips are shallow as oil maintains its strong gains, trading just a dime shy of the $63 level. Prospects of continued Fed tightening and perhaps even an acceleration in tightening in the months ahead are helping push interest rate differentials to the widest level in years today. Two- year spreads favor the USD by 185 bp, a new high for the move while ten- years are at 108 bp, retesting recent highs. Small stops are eyed in the 1.2355 area but the market retains an overwhelming "buy the dips" mentality.