Forecasts for July NFP Employment +200k vs. +146k, median est 180k - Unemployment Rate 5.0% vs. 5.0%, median est 5.0% - Avg Hrly Earnings +0.2% m/m vs. +0.2%, median est +0.2% - Work Week 33.7 hrs vs. 33.7 hrs, median est 33.7 hrs
German Factory Orders for June are expected at 10.00AM GMT, provisions are for an unchanged monthly performance, due to the strong rise in May, YoY change is expected up strong at 3.7%. Everybody will be waiting for the Rate announcement at 11.00GMT by the BOE and after the much talked minutes and vote at the previous MPC meeting it is fair to expect a quarter-percent ease to bring the UK short-term rates to 4.5%. Such a move should be priced in by the market and not pull any sellers, Iâd rather expect a short-term spike of the currency after the announcement. The ECB is also holding its meeting today and any rate-announcement is expected for 11.45GMT. I think European Central Bankers have made it rather clear in June, that political pressure alone will not be sufficient in changing their stand on stability, expect rates to be left unchanged at 2%. US Weekly Jobless Claims are due at 12.30GMT. With July Non-farm payroll on the agenda tomorrow, markets may react sensitive to any strong deviation from the expected 315k for the final July-week.
MATSYS-R or Reversal Triggers This is a Reversal System, is a Trading System that we normally donât use, because we only use the normal system, like with Stop Loss (SL) and Target Price (TP), but with MATSYS-R we don't use SL, because we are always in trading, how? For example, we Buy 1 lot at 2848, and don't put SL and we only wait for the next new signal, always one Short signal after one Long (buy), and this signal comes, we will Short 2 lots, so this way we will stay with one lot always, and wait again for new signal, in this case, will be again one Long. Example: Buy 1 lot - Sell 2 lots - Buy 2 lots - Sell 2 lots and at 21:00 GMT (or before) we close all signals. MATSYS-T or Trend Following This is the Trend Following, is the Trading System with a Stop Loss, but never with Target Price. We think that is a interest Trading System, is easy to use, and we only change SL to protect our position, until the sell or Cover signal come to close our position. Example: GBP/USD: SHORT AT 1.8452 STOP LOSS AT 1.8481 GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8432 GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8426 GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8421 GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8418 GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8409 GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8400 GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8394 GBP/USD: COVER AT 1.8378 (Closed)
Daily Comment Fibo talk Yesterday we showed our subscribers a chart with Fibonacci retracement lines. We don't do that often. We just don't believe that there is a natural or even divine order that is governed by these simple ratios. However, they are ok to use as a reference, and if enough traders believe there is resistance at a certain line, there just might be so. On the eur/usd chart below we have added retracement lines to the trend line from April high to July low. See how nicely it fits the theory: strong resistance at 1.2340. Just as we have seen since last night today. Asians tried to break it, but it will take more than one attempt. When the day closes above 1.2350 we will assume the 38.2% fibo line is broken and the next target is the 50% line at 1.2490.
EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.2375 after a brief foray above 1.2400 to trigger the latest flurry of barriers. Dealers see an afternoon of modest position adjustment ahead of tomorrow"s payrolls. Heighten terrorism fears in the wake of the Zawahri tape this morning are adding to USD woes as his appearances are generally followed by major attacks against US interests or those of its allies in the weeks following its broadcast. 1.2410 is next technical resistance in EUR/USD though most are more focused on 1.2490. Markets are approaching overbought status after a strong break to the upside following the break of 1.2250 yesterday. 1.2350 is intraday support on dips.
Matsys T trades: 08/04 12:42 USD/CHF BUY 1.2645 1.2632 08/04 13:00 -13 08/04 14:36 GBP/USD BUY 1.7784 1.7801 08/04 15:47 17 08/04 15:51 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7787 1.7806 08/04 16:58 -19 Daily resul on Matsys T (2 lots): -30 pips
New voices on Euroland This sound picture of my little French town has changed compared to the same period last year. To the delight of us residents, the organizers of the music festival "Nuits de Sud" have learned that their public can hear the so-called music quite well at 120dB. The 220dB they broadcasted last year probably cost them ticket sales. Why, the public could hear the concert more than five miles away without paying. But the sound picture has changes in another way. New languages are mixing with the usual Dutch, English, Japanese, Scandinavian etc. in the little streets here. Czech, Hungarian, Slovak and Slovine are echoing along the walls of the narrow streets. For the past ten years venture capital has traveled east. Judging by the brouhaha of Slavic voices I hear now through my open window some of that money is now returning. If this begins to show up in the statistics this fall, the Return of the Euro may come with force when it comes. So far it seems to have found good support at 1.2350 as we predicted. In 30 minutes NFP numbers and more will be published. Traders are holding their breath (or rather the finger on the mouse button). Let's see what happens. Have a good week-end.
Eur comment: Dealers are getting a bit nervous as the market adopts a near-universal buy-the-dips mentality. Talk of Middle Eastern bids on dips have been heard already but real money accounts are predominately sellers so far. Dealers are marveling at the post-data price action as EUR/USD fell t0 1.2362 immediately after the release before bouncing to 1.2390 before selling off in earnest. Another nervy bounce to 1.2365 was seen from the low 1.2340s. Dealers see buying interest still in the 1.2230/40 window with more toward 1.2310. 1.2300 has contained dips since the Middle East kicked off the buying frenzy on Wednesday. Stops lie below.
DYNAMIC PIVOTS (DAILY,WEEKLY,MONTHLY) updated MR3 12506 MR2 12465 ATR HB 12428 MR1 12427 DPP 12363 MS1 12324 MS2 12274 ATR LB 12261 MS3 12222 WMR3 12556 WMR2 12491 WMR1 12355 WPP 12258 WMS1 12201 WMS2 12134 WMS3 11988 MMR3 1.2723 MMR2 1.2512 MMR1 1.2302 MPP 1.2142 MMS1 1.1932 MMS2 1.1772 MMS3 1.1562
DYNAMIC PIVOTS GbpUsd (DAILY,WEEKLY,MONTHLY) updated MR3 17939 MR2 17894 ATR HB 17873 MR1 17849 DPP 17781 MS1 17738 MS2 17668 ATR LB 17657 MS3 17623 WMR3 17961 WMR2 17778 WMR1 17595 WPP 17434 WMS1 17251 WMS2 17090 WMS3 16907 MMR3 18934 MMR2 18591 MMR1 18247 MPP 18059 MMS1 17716 MMS2 17528 MMS3 17186 By ***********