Daily Trades: 08/18 02:38 GBP/USD BUY 1.8058 1.8050 08/18 03:39 -8 08/18 01:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2614 1.2606 08/18 04:29 8 08/18 01:15 EUR/USD BUY 1.2269 1.2281 08/18 04:31 12 08/18 05:44 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8039 1.8053 08/18 06:24 -14 08/18 04:30 USD/CHF BUY 1.2610 1.2613 08/18 07:12 3 08/18 05:45 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2272 1.2276 08/18 07:38 -4 08/18 07:41 EUR/USD BUY 1.2282 1.2264 08/18 08:32 -18 08/18 07:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2609 1.2609 08/18 08:34 08/18 07:39 GBP/USD BUY 1.8068 1.8052 08/18 09:47 -16 08/18 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2260 1.2230 08/18 10:20 30 08/18 08:35 USD/CHF BUY 1.2611 1.2645 08/18 10:23 34 08/18 09:48 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8047 1.8043 08/18 10:24 4 Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +126 pips
Daily Trades: 08/19 06:01 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7914 1.7911 08/19 08:53 3 08/19 07:21 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2149 1.2161 08/19 09:07 -12 08/19 09:28 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2705 1.2724 08/19 10:40 -19 08/19 09:29 GBP/USD BUY 1.7971 1.7965 08/19 11:43 -6 08/19 09:27 EUR/USD BUY 1.2177 1.2185 08/19 11:54 8 08/19 13:19 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7932 1.7932 08/19 14:30 08/19 13:20 USD/CHF BUY 1.2735 1.2760 08/19 14:31 25 08/19 13:19 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2162 1.2149 08/19 14:32 13 Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +24 pips
Weekly Trades: 08/15 05:38 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2405 1.2382 1.2373 08/15 10:44 32 08/15 05:39 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8126 1.8121 1.8098 08/15 10:46 28 08/15 05:39 USD/CHF BUY 1.2504 1.2521 1.2543 08/15 10:47 39 08/15 13:11 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8082 08/15 13:48 12 08/15 13:13 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2356 1.2361 08/15 13:55 -5 08/15 13:55 EUR/USD BUY 1.2361 1.2355 08/15 15:57 -6 08/15 17:13 GBP/USD BUY 1.8097 1.8116 08/15 18:57 19 08/16 06:02 EUR/USD BUY 1.2353 1.2362 08/16 08:06 9 08/16 07:11 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2549 1.2558 08/16 08:32 -9 08/16 07:01 GBP/USD BUY 1.8101 1.8122 08/16 08:41 21 08/16 09:21 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8097 08/16 10:11 -3 08/16 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2351 1.2328 08/16 10:32 23 08/16 08:33 USD/CHF BUY 1.2562 1.2594 08/16 11:23 32 08/17 05:14 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2577 1.2596 08/17 06:28 -19 08/17 06:31 USD/CHF BUY 1.2600 1.2607 08/17 08:32 7 08/17 06:07 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2308 1.2295 08/17 08:33 13 08/17 08:31 GBP/USD BUY 1.8072 1.8100 08/17 11:14 28 08/17 10:47 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2596 1.2588 08/17 11:15 8 08/17 10:47 EUR/USD BUY 1.2296 1.2298 08/17 11:19 2 08/17 12:57 GBP/USD BUY 1.8111 1.8089 08/17 14:02 -22 08/17 23:39 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2263 1.2265 08/18 01:12 -2 08/17 23:40 USD/CHF BUY 1.2624 1.2617 08/18 01:16 -7 08/17 23:40 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8043 1.8054 08/18 01:18 -11 08/18 02:38 GBP/USD BUY 1.8058 1.8050 08/18 03:39 -8 08/18 01:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2614 1.2606 08/18 04:29 8 08/18 01:15 EUR/USD BUY 1.2269 1.2281 08/18 04:31 12 08/18 05:44 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8039 1.8053 08/18 06:24 -14 08/18 04:30 USD/CHF BUY 1.2610 1.2613 08/18 07:12 3 08/18 05:45 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2272 1.2276 08/18 07:38 -4 08/18 07:41 EUR/USD BUY 1.2282 1.2264 08/18 08:32 -18 08/18 07:16 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2609 1.2609 08/18 08:34 08/18 07:39 GBP/USD BUY 1.8068 1.8052 08/18 09:47 -16 08/18 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2260 1.2230 08/18 10:20 30 08/18 08:35 USD/CHF BUY 1.2611 1.2645 08/18 10:23 34 08/18 09:48 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8047 1.8043 08/18 10:24 4 08/19 06:01 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7914 1.7911 08/19 08:53 3 08/19 07:21 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2149 1.2161 08/19 09:07 -12 08/19 09:28 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2705 1.2724 08/19 10:40 -19 08/19 09:29 GBP/USD BUY 1.7971 1.7965 08/19 11:43 -6 08/19 09:27 EUR/USD BUY 1.2177 1.2185 08/19 11:54 8 08/19 13:19 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7932 1.7932 08/19 14:30 08/19 13:20 USD/CHF BUY 1.2735 1.2760 08/19 14:31 25 08/19 13:19 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2162 1.2149 08/19 14:32 13 Weekly results on Matsys T (2 lots): +604 pips
Dynamic Pivots EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF Average True Range High Band 1.2223 1.8068 1.2816 Matsys Resistance 1.2184 1.8026 1.2785 Pivot Point 1.2155 1.7938 1.2741 Matsys Support 1.2116 1.7898 1.2711 Average True Range Low Band 1.2063 1.7817 1.2641
US Consumer Confidence is due at 14.00GMT, after 103.2 in July, expectations are for a lower 100.5 August data. US Factory orders for July are expected to shed 2.2% while inventories grew 0.6%. This being July figures and recent slowing of growth discounted for, the impact of todays data should be limited. At 18:00 minutes of the August FOMC meeting will be released. As the market expect the next 25bp rate hike at the next meeting in September, we are keen on finding confirmation of such thoughts in todays Fed minutes.
Dynamic Pivots EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF Average True Range High Band 1.2244 1.7955 1.2818 Matsys Resistance 1.2208 1.7901 1.2766 Pivot Point 1.2169 1.7871 1.2714 Matsys Support 1.2133 1.7819 1.2664 Average True Range Low Band 1.2109 1.7766 1.2611 Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer MACD - slow-fast-smooth EUR/USD 10-08-04 GBP/USD 06-09-07 USD/CHF 08-03-06
Market comment: After yesterday"s perfect storm of spiraling gasoline prices and weak Chicago PMI swamped the greenback, the market awaits confirmation that that energy prices are infacxt taking a severe toll on the US economy. Today"s ISM survey will be the barometer used. If it confirms the weakness seen in Chicago yesterday, look for a run at 1.2500 as the market continues to price out further moves from the Fed. If ISM holds in the high 50s than a set back is likely for EUR/USD with the market mindful of Santomero"s comments just yesterday reiterating continued tightening despite the Katrina- effect. The ECB press conference will likely see Trichet stick to a hawkish line after the ECB staff forecast another year of 2.0% HICP. No action is likely to accompany the rhetoric, as has been the case for the last two-years. 1.2345/55 is good support on dips this morning. Hourly charts are quite bearishly divergent, favoring a pullback near-term. 1.2405 is resistance. Stops are eyed at 1.2410/15 but offers are arrayed from 1.2450 through 1.2500.
The euro appreciated vis-Ã -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2415 level and was supported around the $1.2325 level. Technically, todayâs high was above the 76.4% retracement of the move from $1.2485 to $1.2125 and chartists are now eyeing the $1.2485/ 95 levels as the next upside target, representing the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.3480 to $1.1870. All eyes remain focused on the aftermath of hurricane Katrina in the southern U.S. and its economic and financial impact on the domestic economy there. Gasoline prices have skyrocketed in the U.S. and for a country with a savings rate near zero per cent, escalating energy prices could eat into final private demand. Some market participants are thinking the Federal Reserve will not move interest rates higher by 25bps at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting and instead opt to assess and survey the financial implications of Katrina. Philadelphia Fed President Santomero yesterday said he believes the economy will slow as a result of Katrina but added the U.S.âs economic expansion âis strong enough to withstand (the impact).â Many economic data were released in the U.S. today. First, it was reported that July personal income was up +0.3% while personal savings printed at +1.0% with Juneâs total upwardly revised. The PCE deflator moved higher to 2.5% from 2.2% while core personal consumption expenditures â a favourite Fed measure of price pressures â was up +0.1%. Weekly initial jobless claims climbed 3,000 to 320,000. Other data released today saw the August ISM manufacturing index came in at 53.6, down from 56.6 in July. The new orders sub-index fell to 56.4 from 60.6 while the employment index fell to 52.6 from 53.2. The marketâs preoccupation with hurricane Katrina has resulted in the U.S. dollar being largely unable to gain ground from positive U.S. economic data, an asymmetric effect. Most, if not all, of the economic data being released now were calculated and compiled before Katrina struck the U.S. and the data generally paint a picture of an economy that evidenced some deceleration in economic activity over the past one or two months. In eurozone news, European Central Bank voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.0%, as expected. The ECB has not changed rates since June 2003 and traders are curious to see what ECB President Trichet will say in his post-meeting comments today. The recent increase in the eurozoneâs M3 money supply has some dealers believing the ECB has become more hawkish while others believe the ECB will tread cautiously given the current spike in energy prices. Most traders believe the ECB will not change policy until Q1 2006 and that is likely to be a monetary tightening. Data released in the eurozone today saw August EMU-12 manufacturing PMI recede to 50.5 from 50.8 in July while the EMU- 12 July unemployment index fell to 8.6% from 8.7% in June. Germanyâs manufacturing PMI rate contracted to 48.7 from 49.8 in July. All eyes are on tomorrowâs U.S. August non-farm payrolls report. Weakness in todayâs U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the employment sub-index could evidence a pullback in employment. Euro offers are cited around the $1.2495/ $1.2645 levels.
is this your indicator? if so, could you explain how the levels adjust? is it a time factor? i can't quite understand the value of these pivots if they constantly update. if they are relatively fixed by a given time, then it would be a scalpers dream. looking back over the last years charts, selling resistance and closing at the pivot would make most of us rich. curious about the name you've chosen and the correlation, if any to this very intriguing indicator. =)
Market Comment: The market is not reacting favourably to the increased chances of a grand coalition in Germany. Opinion polls suggest the main parties are neck and neck ahead of Sunday"s voting. The bottom line for the market is the risk to the vital reform process. The Germans under the Schroeder administration have struggled to push ahead with reforms and the economy has been the laggard of Europe as a result. As the global economy moves through its cycles the Germans have failed to benefit from upswings and now that the world economy is facing fresh challenges from the energy crisis the lack of reform will again be telling. The EUR has been sold across the board and EUR/USD has fallen steadily from a 1.2590 peak at the start of the month to 1.2245 last session. Wednesday action has been tight but the bear bias is holding through early Europe. A 1.2260 test seen before a bounce back to 1.2285-95 but expect offers to be tight to market and limit furthrer corrective rebounds. Talk of Russian and Central European demand but heavier interest on the sell side from funds and intraday traders. peter.stoneham