CL and QM are simply too volatile for my liking. You need to full time trade and specialise in these markets/products in order to build an edge and even stand a chance. Timing has to be perfect here. I'd rather daytrade the equity indexes and fx markets as main activity and trade oil on the side with less leverage and a medium term view, hence the oil ETF's looked like a good alternative for me. They let you scale into positions without being stopped out despite having the right medium term view.
As long as the $ strengthens, oil will trade lower in tandem if the economic crisis worsens. If the $ resumes its downtrend, oil will rise much faster than the usd drops. The arab world grinds to a total halt with oil at these low levels, so opec + the arabs will do something about this at some stage. It has always been a heavily manipulated market...
Could not agree more - in addition, consider that just to get 55gal out of the ground and to the gas station it costs ~$50... crude at $40 just isn't profitable
This bothers me. Not your comment but the numbers. BAC CEO said his company was fine, slight profit decline yes but in no need of TARP and... etc... oh... wait... now BAC is $5.00 Do you guys really know what the break even / profit point is in U.S. $ to get one (1) barrel of Mideast oil sold in the U.S.? I don't mean what Iran says, or Saudi Arabia says, or OPEC says, etc... I mean true independent research? For some reason I'm remembering $25 to $29 per from 4 or 5 years ago being a more than reasonable profit for that region. Any recent research/studies?
I heard $50 from a pretty reliable source - I've also heard it from CNBC - and CNBC speaks the truth!!! PM me or email me for more info - or google where I work and who shares office space in my building.
I was sarcastic about CNBC speaking the truth. I could be totally wrong but I heard this from someone while oil was at $140+ they were eitehr BS'ing me or maybe there are different variations of being profitable. Also the dollar has taken a big hit since now and then - but again I could be totally off base here. Oil isn't something I've studied extensively
WTF...crude up, energy stocks up, DXO flat to down. I'm beginning to think this is all a bunch of shit.
just keep buying it.... this is my retirement plan. if oil goes to 10$ this is .50 - buy 100,000 shares and sometime in the next 10 years you will be retired.