Discussion in 'ETFs' started by Silentmax, Jan 14, 2009.
any dxo or dto etf traders here?
I do - yes.
I've been watching oil for the past couple of weeks, with the thought that these may be the vehicles to trade.
I find it doesn't track CL that well. I used to trade CL and stopped a year ago.
These ETFs (USO) and the DXO Ive traded but I don't like them as much.
Natural Gas was the hardest for me to trade though.
DXO is a great momentum trade vehicle for me. It bucks like a bronco though.
Funny this question came up now, as I just started to screen the activity on DXO / DTO since a few days with the view to start trading it soon.
Volume and liquidity at first sight looked quite good but the volatility not really mirroring CL or QM. Quite interested to see what the feedback in this thread will show.
I'm trading mainly FX for many years (but increasingly frustrated by it), and since a few months ES, SPY and QID / QLD with reasonable success.
I find this DXO thing strange - like you said it doesn't track CL in the same manner as USO tracks CL. Do you think by any chance it tracks Brent?
Oil has been making lows lately but has anyone noticed the DXO really hasn't been following in the same manner?
I have positions in DXO, but they are kind of 'sitting there'.
becareful with dxo, understand how it works and that its 2x return is on a DAILY basis only. In the current market, you will get whipsawed to death if going 100% dxo. It's a good product in a bull uptrend market.
My oil play is made up of 75% uso 25% dxo. I have been averaging down since the uso was at 40, and will continue to do so. My position is about 70% complete now, meaning i will average down 1-2 more times if uso hits 20. Time horizon is 2-3 years for this trade.
Looking at the chart, right now it seems oil is trying to bottom and trading flat. But in all honesty, it could just be another bear flag for the next leg down to 20s.
In longer term, oil has to bounce back, there is no question about it. The only concerning factor is the strong focus now on green technology, which if materializes will have a big impact on the demand for oil. So i am looking for an exit at around 60-75 in the next 2-3 years for oil, not looking for it to head back up to the 150s.
Remember everyone calling for $200 oil now the opposite is happening, this analyst predicts $17, I agree oil is headed further down due to the economic recession worldwide, I think we see $1.00-$1.25 average at the pump sometime over the next 12-18 months. Gas will average under $1.00 in some states by the time oil touches under $20 a barrel, anyone wishing and hoping for $100 better wait a LONNNNNNNNG TIME, oil will not be $100 + for quite some time at least 5 years, and $200 is certainly out of question for at least a decade or 2.
Charts Predict: Oil Heading towards $17
Sectors:Oil and Gas
By: CNBC.com | 16 Jan 2009 | 09:49 AM
The price of a barrel of oil could slump toward $25 and even lower as the economy continues to falter, Phil Roberts, technical analyst from Barclays Capital, told CNBC Friday.
Ã¢â¬ÅWe're still getting bearish signals, the implication is - this move's not over,Ã¢â¬Â Roberts said.
Roberts' near-term view for the oil price is $29, but his Ã¢â¬Åslightly longer-termÃ¢â¬Â outlook is for $25 a barrel or lower.
Ã¢â¬ÅIn the first quarter of 2009, you're in to the final phase of the down leg in the business cycle. So what weÃ¢â¬â¢re looking for is this to slow, the downtrend to slow. Where it's going to stop Ã¢â¬â best guess would be maybe between $17 and $25 a barrel,Ã¢â¬Â he said.
Roberts said he would even be wary of buying at $17 a barrel.
Ã¢â¬ÅThe downside risks are still very much there and this trend, you've got to respect it,Ã¢â¬Â he said. Ã¢â¬ÅThe deflationary cycle is still in play,Ã¢â¬Â he added.
I really think all of these are a bad substitute for the NYMEX oil.
Are you a futures trader?
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