After the markets closed today, I coded a trade signal for gold, one for silver, another for crude oil and yet another for natural gas. However, these signals do NOT tell me when to enter positions, but rather, merely alert me as to when conditions are perhaps setting up potential structures for possibly entering the market. GOLD SILVER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS Even so, I have yet another idea for crude oil that I will probably code and compare by the end of tomorrow.
ORIGINAL CRUDE OIL ALERT SIGNAL ALERT SIGNAL II ALERT SIGNAL III It looks to me like if I want to catch the vast majority of crude oil trade opportunities, I'm going to have to load BOTH Version I AND Version III on the chart, and then decide whether any give alert is valid at the time the signal sounds the alarm.
So... based on everything I've tried since I established this thread about three months ago, I think what I've pasted below is likely to be my culminating strategy for day trading gold (or something extremely close to it). I'm hoping it performs as anticipated next week 'cause if it does, it will mean completely abandoning ALL activity directed towards "research" (with respect to gold) and the maximized use of my time simply taking advantage of the financial benefits this method of buying and selling the precious metal has to offer. Given the profitability of (successfully) trading gold via the NADEX platform, such an outcome would (hypothetically) greatly accelerate my getting to where I eventually would like to be, God willing.
Synthesizing Trade Instructions... (Should you get an inkling, go back and compare what you think now to what you thought on 05/22/2024.) Today I began a more concerted effort to begin memorizing the details of the parameters and settings of my various chart configurations than I ever have before, which I hope is a possible sign that, at some level, I'm recognizing that my most recent observations/opinions have found their way to their true targets in terms of the measures that will serve me best now and forever when it comes to day trading the five assets I currently have under consideration. They are very similar at the micro level, but not so as one moves out to get the bigger picture. In the context of intraday trading, the "global bias" for gold is conveyed by three-hour price flow, but for silver, it is the consensus option of the six-, nine- and twelve-hour measures. For crude oil, it is six hours, for natural gas, it is four hours, and for the foreign currency pairs, it is five hours.
Who employs a 4¼-minute price flow channel as the fastest measure one can reasonably argued it makes sense to monitor? Gold uses the somewhat "wobbly" medium purple and pale violet-red 4¼-minute baseline along with its associated price flow channels at 0.02% and 0.07% deviation to represent the precious metal's fastest actionable trend, as confirmed by the aqua nine-minute baseline. Natural gas also uses what is, for this fuel, a wildly unstable medium purple and pale violet-red 4¼-minute price flow channel at 0.20% deviation to track fluctuating price action, as confirmed by its yellow ten-minute baseline. However, the foreign currency pairs jump to the cornflower blue and light coral six-minute price range envelope at 0.05% deviation, as confirmed by the yellow ten-minute baseline. Contrast this with crude oil, which fills this role using a rather erratic dark blue and firebrick 8½-minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation. So then, silver is the only one of these assets that goes with a faster measure, using an unreliable navy and maroon three-minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation, along with a more stable steel blue six-minute price flow channel at 0.07% deviation (a measure it shares in common with the Forex pairs, though with a different deviation level)—both confirmed by a yellow baseline. Hence, silver, natural gas and the Forex pairs all look to the yellow ten-minute baseline for guidance/confirmation, with gold doing essentially the same thing via its aqua nine-minute baseline. (Crude oil's dark blue and firebrick 8½-minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation is already slow enough that it doesn't really need a ten-minute confirmation measure.)
IMMEDIATE VS. INTRADAY REVERSALS Gold might be maneuvering an immediate reversal when the (trailing band of the) 4¼-minute price flow channel at 0.02% deviation crosses over to the opposite side of the nine-minute baseline—especially once the baseline reorients its trajectory. However, such U-turns should be regarded as momentary/temporary until and unless candlesticks ALSO begin painting on the contrarian side of the 40-minute price flow channel at 0.14% deviation, which is going to begin pulling this channel in the opposite direction, constituting a fully-fledged intraday reversal. Silver is likely to be executing an immediate reversal when the three-minute price range envelope and six-minute price flow channel cross over to the opposite side of the ten-minute baseline AND the baseline begins sloping in that same direction. Such a turn will take on greater significance (become an "intermediate" change in bias?) should candlesticks breach the 26-minute "yellow fog" at 0.30% deviation, causing this price flow channel to ALSO reverse direction. Nonetheless, to reach the status of a wholesale, fully-fledged intraday reversal, the candles must additionally "violate" the contrarian band of the 60-minute price range envelope at 0.55% deviation, causing this measure to begin sloping in the new direction. The immediate bias of natural gas is suggested by the a "proper positioning/alignment" of the three "fanning" measures: the 4¼-minute price flow channel, the ten-minute baseline and the twenty-minute baseline. Even so, action should probably NOT be taken if the 90-minute price range envelope at 1.20% deviation is neutral; and if trending, trades should probably ONLY be made in the direction of the slope of the 90-minute measure. In my opinion, crude oil does not really have an intraday bias, and given the crazy nature of its price action—constantly bouncing up and down—I would regard structure as being equal in importance to the trajectory of the 8½-minute price range envelope, entering long positions ONLY when candlesticks are exiting the region between the lower band of the ten-minute price range envelope at 0.20% deviation and the lower band of the two-hour price range envelope at 0.45% deviation; and conversely, entering short positions ONLY when candlesticks are exiting the region between the upper band of the ten-minute price range envelope at 0.20% deviation and the upper band of the two-hour price range envelope at 0.45% deviation. Moreover, it appears to me that the statistical probability of one's actions resulting in positive outcomes is increased significantly if trades are ALSO only made in the direction aligned with the slope of the six-hour baseline. As for the Forex pairs, they are considered to be maneuvering an immediate reversal when (five-minute) candlesticks begin painting on the opposite side of the ten-minute baseline AND the baseline begins sloping in the new direction. On the other hand, intraday reversals are suggested by a transition in the trajectory of the forty-minute baseline. So in brief, gold and Forex pairs both use a 40-minute measures (the first an envelope and the second a baseline), silver uses an hour, natural gas uses 90 minutes, and crude oil uses two hours in tandem with ten minutes.
WHEN IS IT "SAFEST" TO ENTER THE MARKETS? GOLD: When the slope of the 40-minute price flow channel is greater than 0.291 or less than -0.291 SILVER: When the slope of the 60-minute price range envelope is greater than 0.933 or less than -0.933 NATURAL GAS: When the slope of the 90-minute price range envelope is greater than 1.2867 or less than -1.2867 CRUD OIL: When the slope of the two-hour price range envelope is greater than 0.628 or less than -0.628 (at which point, any "bouncing" is likely to become less pronounce—if observed at all) FOREX PAIRS: When the slope of the 40-minute baseline is greater than 0.0179 or less than -0.0179
Another way of looking at gold is if the upper or lower band of the 20-minute price flow channel at 0.10% deviation keeps pace with or even outstrips the corresponding band of the 40-minute channel at 0.14% deviation, you are looking at what is potentially an arguable justification for entering a position... Go ahead and code an indicator/alert for this scenario later today when you have opportunity.
The white sections of the chart below highlight how even though the slope of the 90-minute baseline might have been greater than 1.2867 (or less than -1.2867) this did not automatically suggest it was a good time to be trading. On the other hand, it turns out that when the bars on the 20-minute histogram extended beyond the 0.8828 or -0.8828 threshold, it WAS INDEED a time when price was finally moving—especially if the 40-minute indicator was simultaneously clearing 0.9524 or -0.9524. The process of removing indicators from the chart revealed that this essentially corresponded with price action (the five-minute price flow channel at 0.20% deviation) breaching the upper or lower band of the 20-minute price range envelope at 0.45% deviation. Another angle from which to look at this is to see if the lower band of the five-minute price flow channel at 0.20% deviation has climbed above the 20-minute baseline, or conversely, if the upper band of the five-minute channel has crawled below the 20-minute baseline. These conditions roughly approximated the previous alert I coded for natural gas (which I left on the chart) but not exactly. So, it should be simple enough to code a new indicator in accordance with what I just observed over this last 24-hour market cycle. No...for foreign currency pairs, use 0.0083 and -0.0083 instead. Also, ADD the slope of the 20-minute price flow beyond 0.0135 or -0.0135 as an even more important condition. This will pretty much correspond with THE UPPER OR LOWER BAND OF THE EIGHT-MINUTE PRICE RANGE ENVELOPE AT 0.05% DEVIATION OUT PACING THE CORRESPONDING BAND OF THE 20-MINUTE PRICE RANGE ENVELOPE AT 0.06% DEVIATION.
Use six hours instead...it's smoother, which will work better for what I'm about to attempt to mentally process on the fly, right now... Ultimately, you expect currency pairs to go with the two-hour flow...eventually. But, longer term, six hours suggests the end goal/destination. And given that the six-hour envelope at 0.10% deviation defines the typical range of price action when the two-hour trend is neutral, anything above that when the six-hour trend is bearish and the two-hour envelope is below it should constitute a potential sell zone. Conversely, anything below this range when the six-hour trend is bullish and the two-hour envelope is above it should constitute a potential buy zone. These numbers also recommend watching for reversals in the two-hour trend near the six-hour 30% deviation level. Wait... "Anything above that when the six-hour trend is bearish and the two-hour envelope is below it (or even MORE so if it is above it?) should constitute a potential sell zone. Conversely, anything below this range when the six-hour trend is bullish and the two-hour envelope is above (or even MORE so if it is below it?) it should constitute a potential buy zone." By the way, should you ALWAYS be prepared to sell if rates are near the upper band of a neutral or bearish six-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation, and prepared to buy if rates are near the lower band on a neutral or bullish six-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation? Since you expect currency pairs to go with the two-hour flow...eventually, also be prepared to enter positions (in the appropriate direction) from the contrarian side of a sloping six-hour baseline—especially behind the contrarian band of the one-hour envelope at 0.07% deviation. (Evaluate how all of this fits with with the directions at the end of the previous post.)