Duxon's Archive

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Feb 1, 2019.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    NOTE TO SELF...
    Consulting Multiple Time Frames

    This is the profile you like as of today, August 24, 2022 (and is not likely to change in that these are your prime charts as you reach the pinnacle of this five-year journey):

    1-Week TRACER
    1-Hour Average... with EIGHT-HOUR BASELINE
    5-Minute CLARITY II
    1-Minute TWO-HOUR PRICE RANGE ENVELOPE
     
    #851     Aug 24, 2022
  2. expiated

    expiated

    Who is Whitney Webb?

    upload_2022-8-25_18-33-46.png

    Whitney Webb is a writer and researcher mostly covering intelligence, tech, surveillance and civil liberties.
     
    #852     Aug 25, 2022
  3. expiated

    expiated

    upload_2022-8-27_19-50-51.png
    Battlestar Galactica (TV Series 1978 – 1979) Film Locations

    You too can relive the destruction of Caprica as seen in "Saga of a Star World, S1 E1" by visiting the
    Beach City Hall and Civic Center Complex.
    (No you can't, because they tore it down.) The Late Modern architecture style provides an otherworldly feel, particularly when it was completed in 1976-1977. For you architecture buffs, the city had commissioned a group of architects called the Allied Architects (headed by Hugh and Donald Gibbs) to design the new Civic Center complex in 1973.

    About 25 minutes into the episode, the bridge of the Battlestar Galactica watches a “simple broadcast transmission” from Caprica. Serina (aka Dr. Quin) reports from the Caprica Presidium on the new era of peace the armistice agreement will bring then the Cylons attack and all hell breaks loose. So please remember the Capricans who died here when meandering around the complex. Pack some Kleenex in your day bag foreven Colonel Tigh cried.

    And, I know this is the wrong incarnation, but I can’t help myself … "So say we all."
     
    #853     Aug 27, 2022
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    The old Galactica series is dead. It was annihilated by the new one Sci-Fi channel created in 2000ish. Especially after that asshole Dirk Benedict, the original Starbuck, said that a woman should have not played his role in the reboot. FUCK HIM! She (Katie Sackhoff) was better in that role than he could ever be, that mother fucking male asshole chauvinist pig! FUCK YOU! HOW DARE YOU SAY THAT!
    '
    When he dies, I will weep not one tear. Mother FUCKER how dare you say shit like that!

     
    #854     Aug 27, 2022
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    The "One-hour Outside of Black" Chart is now the pinnacle of your system!

    ScreenHunter_12380 Aug. 31 16.09.jpg

    Wednesday, August 31, 2022
     
    #855     Aug 31, 2022
  6. expiated

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    Revised Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) Explanation
    Copyright © 2022 Fred Duckworth

    Numerical Price Prediction is a unique and innovative day trading system crafted via the application of five biblical principles:
    1. Test everything and hold fast only to that which proves valid and reliable.
    2. Positive outcomes are typically the result of having made good choices.
    3. Rightly interpreting the signs of the times is an absolute necessity.
    4. The best plans are usually established in the presence of a multitude of counselors.
    5. Systems generally operate at peak performance when the interactions between their component parts evidence strong, healthy relationships.
    The principle of "testing everything and holding fast to that which is good" suggested that I replace the age-old advice to "keep your eyes on the road" with a mandate to "focus on your destination," a subtle, yet profound, distinction.

    Obsessing on the former tends to be constraining—dictating one's movements and limiting the parameters within which one is free to operate, often locking people into notions that are not truly worthy of the reverence bestowed upon them.

    But, emphasizing the latter allows an individual to be creative and take any route desired, so long as it carries one toward that on which s/he has resolutely set his or her gaze.

    Doing so led me to reject many approaches wholeheartedly endorsed by any number of trading gurus, such as Elliott waves, Fibonacci ratios, harmonic patterns, pivot points and the like.

    And when strategies involving moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), stochastic oscillators, the relative strength index (RSI), the commodity channel index (CCI), the average directional movement index (ADX) and other indicators failed to live up to their reputations, I had no qualms about discarding them entirely and searching elsewhere for the "signs of the times" which, if interpreted correctly, would result in market forecasts of unusual accuracy.

    Taking this path led me to a methodology similar to that used by meteorologist to predict the weather—one based as much as possible on statistical analysis and mathematical probability, which is why I call my system "Numerical Price Prediction."

    The idea is to gather and evaluate precise, up-to-date, quantitative data and use it to calculate the odds of price reaching designated values within a given time period by patterning the system's elements after the equations, wave functions, and computer models used in weather forecasting.

    But, instead of monitoring wind velocity and direction, cloud formations, humidity, temperature, and barometric pressure; I evaluate the synergy between such factors as typical price ranges, reoccurring chart patterns, horizontal support and resistance levels, trend lines, and market structure, all in multiple time frames—with the result being a graphical depiction of current conditions that I can use to help make precise, well-timed trades.

    As it turned out, the absolute best "atmospheric barometer" for predicting the direction in which an exchange rate might ultimately be headed was nothing more than a simple moving average, with a handful of key moving averages evidencing superior accuracy in this role.

    So then, the notion that there is no "best" moving average is one to which I whole heatedly disagree. Yet, the candidates for this role are not the ones commonly used by many traders, such as the 10-, 20-, 50-, 100- or 200-period moving averages.

    In fact, I don't base the moving averages I use on ANY periods at all. One of the main differences that makes my system unique is that all my moving averages are based on TIME, which is something I have not seen used by any other trading methodology.

    This is because trading with the clarity and precision I require demands that a specific temporal value be assigned to each moving average to answer questions like: What moving average best conveys in which direction and by how much price moves every five minutes? Or every thirty minutes? Or every four hours? Or even every day?

    I call these moving averages "baselines," which are defined as moving averages that serve as guides or road maps, clarifying whether a given asset is bullish, bearish or neutral for a specific period.

    Of course the critics and naysayers told me that baselines as I envisioned them "conflict with the findings of just about every independent, objective, systematic, statistically significant research-trial which has ever been published on this subject." This is why I see myself as sort of like an Aristarchus of Samos or Nicolaus Corpernicus of the Forex market. For they too asserted what conflicted with just about every recognized, orthodox, well-established, accredited opinion on the topic (that the sun rather than the earth constituted the center of our local cosmos).

    So then, my goal with baselines was to arrive at something reflective of flight dynamics, where the laws of physics explain how forces act on vessels to govern their performance, stability and control to ultimately determine their velocity and attitude with respect to time.

    Hence, in the same way pilots are aware that a Boeing 747 will lift off the ground by angling upward at two to three degrees per second with a maximum angle of 10 to 15 degrees; I as a retail trader now know the parameters dictating whether an asset is rising or falling from the perspective of a day, swing, or position trader.

    These baselines were identified, in part, by incorporating the idea of cycle theory, which holds that cyclical forces, both long and short, drive price movements, and can be used to anticipate turning points. (The system is also compatible with Edgar Peters' fractal market hypothesis, which views financial markets as fractal in the sense that they follow cyclical and replicable patterns—ones consisting of fragmented shapes that break down into parts which then replicate the shape of the whole.)

    Again, I used cycles to help uncover the corresponding baselines by conducting a thorough analysis to first identify the cyclical waves formed in the wake of price action, followed by the defining of their general frequencies and magnitudes; and then finally plotting centered moving averages that came as close as possible to approximating the zero amplitude of the corresponding waves/cycles.

    But, with all this talk about baselines, I should not fail to mention that, though one often hears traders stating "the trend is your friend," it would surely be more accurate to say that the trend is merely one of several friends.

    For the location of rates within the above mentioned waves/cycles would have to be considered at least equally as important as the trend.

    Accordingly, I've ceased to think of trends as only being represented by lines and have come to conceptualize them as belts as well, with the location of price within the expanse of values constituting the width of these oscillating channels being just as important (when deciding exactly where to enter and exit positions) as the general direction that each "breadth of values" is headed.

    Yet, even after all this, there emerged still another factor impacting the interpretation of price action that proved deserving of my consideration, and that was the concept of "temporal" support and resistance.

    In other words, not only do I believe there is a certain amount of distance beyond which exchange rates will typically resist separating themselves from the central tendencies of key price distributions. It seems to me I have also observed that there is generally a limit to the amount of time exchange rates will advance in one particular direction without deviation.

    I refer to these limitations as temporal support and resistance, and they have proven to be a welcome enhancement to my system.

    Accordingly, my final decisions on when to buy and when to sell are always made based on the consensus of various input data, sampled in multiple time frames—data which includes baselines, market structure, temporal support/resistance, horizontal support/resistance, price ranges, and reoccurring chart patterns.

    It is the consensus opinion of all these various factors that determines what I will decide to do in the final analysis. The moves I make depend on what each of these determinants means in light of all the others and how they all will affect and impact on one another. It is the interpretation of each moving part individually—and of all these assorted components as a whole—that constitutes Numerical Price Prediction.

    Chief among these measures are: the two-hour price range envelope at 0.50% deviation; the 80-Minute price range at 0.25% deviation; the 40-minute price range at 0.10%, 0.35% and 0.45% deviation; the 40-minute baseline; the 20-minute baseline; the 6-minute baseline; and the 15-hour temporal support/resistance level.

    The most important measures from a more long-range point of view include the eight-, 16- and 24-hour baselines, the two-, five-, six-, 12- and 42-day price range envelopes, and the weekly price range.
     
    #856     Sep 4, 2022
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  8. expiated

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    It will be interesting to me to see if what these folks are saying about where the leaders of the nations are taking this world turns out to be true or not...

     
    #858     Sep 13, 2022
  9. expiated

    expiated

    Why does higher education cost so much in the United States of America?

    The Federal government's infusion of untold trillions of dollars in higher education is what has led to the vast escalation in educational costs. You give colleges and universities the opportunity to participate in these loan programs and they begin to double and triple their budgets. Then, you have a pernicious cycle, whereby students have to take out more because the costs are going up.

    The federal government never takes responsibility for the fact that it's flooding of the economy of higher education with so many trillions of dollars is what has led to the higher costs that the administration now claims are the justification for expanding student loan opportunities, flooding the economy with even more student aid money, and what the White House calls forgiveness of student loans that were voluntarily taken out," but I want to go further than that and point out something that many people don't think about. By flooding higher education with all of this money and the name of Pell Grants and student aid funds, federally-insured, student borrowing, and all the rest, let me tell you what the Federal government did.

    It tightened the ideological control of the federal government around the institutions that participate in that federal funding. You have Title IX, you have other things that have come in, and the higher educational institutions that receive those funds by government-controlled student loans and Pell Grants and all the rest, they come under all kinds of jurisdictional authorities in the Federal government, and make no mistake, that means right now, when it comes to, say LGBTQ issues, if you are taking that money, then if not compliant with those issues, you have to claim that you have some kind of religious exemption.

    Let me be clear, Boyce College and Southern Seminary receive none of that money and we claim no exemption because we aren't participants in the program in the first place, precisely because I and the governing board of this institution are not going to give the federal government any kind of access to set the policies, say on sexuality and marriage and other issues for this institution. We're just not going to do it. Yes, when it comes to those who have taken out these loans, there is a sense in which many of them were actually victimized by a system that enticed them into taking out loans, and many of them took out loans that simply aren't justified.

    By the way, it is arguable that the loans benefited the institution and not the students, and that's a part of the perversity of all of this, and it's true that many people who are taking out those loans didn't know all that they were doing, but again, who's responsible for that? Well, two parties in particular, the Federal government that offered this program and colleges and universities that played the game, and I promise you, we'll play it still, because here's another thing. How long will it be until there has to be yet another student loan forgiveness? Once the government has set the principle, or the precedent, that what it will do under political pressure is forgive these loans, then why wouldn't you take out such a loan tomorrow with the assumption that if you bring just enough political pressure, well, the government will have to do the same thing again? After all, at one point, President Biden had said that he didn't have the legal authority to do this, and yet, now he's done it, and if he gets away with it, what president in the future won't be under continual pressure to do the same thing? Just two other things to consider here.

    For one thing, government often creates problems, and then it comes back and claims that it's going to have to spend untold amounts of money in order to fix the problem that it has created. That's exactly what we see here. It is the cycle of the pernicious effect of a government that spends this kind of money and distorts an entire economy. If higher education had to live within the bills of what people, who are sending their young people, or young people who are buying education, if the institutions had to live within those constraints, you would see the cost of higher education come down, but trust me, the cartel of higher education will find a way to make certain those costs never come down.

    ~R. ALBERT MOHLER, JR.
     
    #859     Sep 13, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. expiated

    expiated

     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2022
    #860     Sep 17, 2022