Duxon's Archive

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Feb 1, 2019.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    The above does not exist. Rather, it is the five-minute expanse, zero-lag, proprietary indicator...my mistake.
     
    #801     Jun 29, 2022
  2. expiated

    expiated

    Tuesday | June 29, 2022 | 7:30 AM PST

    At this point, here is what I believe is required of me if I wish to finish each 24-hour cycle with more money than I started with, every single day I am active in the market…

    Numerical Price Prediction Bias Overlap is a hands-on, labor-intensive approach to trading. There is no sending in orders and then walking away. Rather, all positions should be monitored, and in some cases, managed/modified as necessary in response to unfolding price action.

    First of all, the 40-minute price range envelope(s) serve two purposes. One is to give a good idea as to the direction in which price is ultimately headed from an intraday perspective. However, because it is not sensitive to less significant price fluctuations, it lacks the precision required to assist in deciding exactly when to enter and exit positions.

    However, the 40-minute measure’s second job is to give traders an indication as to when the odds of intraday reversals taking place (due to mean reversion/regression toward the mean) begin to rise significantly/substantially (from 0.10% to 0.37% deviation).

    The 20-minute baseline conveys the intraday bias/sentiment. Traders should be extremely wary about entering positions that are not in harmony with the slope of this crucial measure.

    The 10-minute baseline is an intermediate measure that primarily works in tandem with other measures. For example, an asset is deemed bullish when this moving average AND the 20-minute measure are positioned in the top half of the 40-minute price range envelope; and bearish when they are located within the bottom of the range. (Of course, this does not hold true in those instances when the general, overall intraday trend is reversing direction, which is why it is important not to enter positions before the two-, five- and 12-minute [not yet mentioned] measures signal doing so.)

    The 10-minute baseline also (sort of) confirms the direction of the immediate, short-term trend, which is conveyed by the two-minute baseline in partnership with the "Five-minute Expanse" zero-lag proprietary indicator.

    And finally, perhaps the most important factor in deciding when to enter positions is the 48-minute temporal support/resistance channel, which reveals the key levels where intraday reversals are most like to occur.
     
    #802     Jun 29, 2022
  3. expiated

    expiated

    Wednesday | June 29, 2022 | 1:45 PM PST

    upload_2022-6-29_13-45-3.png

    Just noting that everything typed out yesterday still looks good...

    ScreenHunter_12074 Jun. 29 13.39.jpg
     
    #803     Jun 29, 2022
  4. expiated

    expiated

    Thursday | June 30, 2022 | 11:30 AM PST
    upload_2022-6-30_11-16-51.png

    So then, it is not the 30-, 40- and 50-minute baselines that I need to regard as the "fanning moving averages," but rather, the 5-, 10- and 20-minute baselines instead.
     
    #804     Jun 30, 2022
  5. expiated

    expiated

    Focus on the most extreme level (i.e., 0.37% deviation) and look to execute mean reversion/regression toward the mean trades. Also, do the same thing with the 2⅔-hour price range envelope at 0.50% deviation. Try to find instances where the two measures converge.

    USDCHFM5.png
     
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2022
    #805     Jun 30, 2022
  6. expiated

    expiated

    Friday | July 1, 2022 | 3:30 PM PST

    upload_2022-7-1_15-31-28.png

    The eight-hour temporal support/resistance level is extremely useful in identifying key levels for entering profitable positions. Start incorporating it into your Bias Overlap activity!
     
    #806     Jul 1, 2022
  7. expiated

    expiated

    Tuesday | July 5, 2022 | 1:35 PM PST

    upload_2022-7-5_13-33-21.png

    Since I have ceased making any significant changes to my charts, let me go ahead and summarize the views I hold at present...

    If there is any measure I would characterize as "noise," it would have to be the one-minute trend, since I don’t think it is possible for a retail market participant to trade it profitably via any standard Forex trading platform.

    However, price movement DOES become actionable once it reaches the three-minute mark, which tends to move in tandem with the five-minute baseline, plotted alongside it due to its often being prone to the influence of more insignificant price fluctuations.

    These two measures are used in deciding when to enter positions, with the idea being to do so as they reverse direction on a course that is realigned with the trajectory of the ten-minute measure, especially if the slope of the latter matches the slope of the 20-minute baseline.

    (The ten-minute baseline is the lowest "actionable" day trading measure, recognizing reversals in the intraday trend as they are unfolding. However, it is susceptible to head fakes, sometime suggesting that an asset is changing direction only to have it fail to follow through. The 20-minute baseline does not fall victim to such "false positives." But unfortunately, it is behind the curve it terms of picking up reversals in a timely fashion. So then, it is best to use the two of them together to recognize and then verify when the intraday trend is changing its sentiment.)

    The other way to verify in which direction price is headed and whether there is enough volatility in the market to justify participation is to look at the relative positions and widths of the 10-minute, 48-minute, 2-hour and 8-hour temporal support/resistance channels; and where price is located within these measures.

    (See Post #802 for the role played by the 40-minute price range envelope, and Post #805 for the role played by the 2⅔-hour price range envelope.)
     
    #807     Jul 5, 2022
  8. expiated

    expiated

    Today's one-minute EURJPY chart is a great illustration as to why a trader MUST monitor and manage his or her positions when implementing the Bias Overlap version of Numerical Price Prediction...

    upload_2022-7-8_13-12-3.png
     
    #808     Jul 8, 2022
  9. expiated

    expiated

    ScreenHunter_12089 Jul. 09 11.53.jpg upload_2022-7-9_11-44-29.png

     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2022
    #809     Jul 9, 2022
  10. expiated

    expiated

    ScreenHunter_12091 Jul. 09 12.53.jpg
    The chart template you were looking for with the Rorschach inkblot looking indicator is the One-hour Weekly Tracer + configuration...

    upload_2022-7-9_12-43-59.png
    The idea behind this is that when the gray symmetrical-contour indicator is above and below the 3.86849 and -3.86849 levels, there is enough liquidity and volatility present to justify entering the market. When the indicator is inside or within the channel, the market is in consolidation and NO trades should be attempted! When activity IS justified, the direction in which trades should be executed is dictated by whether the bold black oscillator inside the channel is rising or falling, and whether it is positioned above or below the gold dotted line in the center of the channel.

    This is your own personal version of an average directional movement index (ADX) for representing trend strength, and its positive (+DI) and negative (-DI) directional indicators.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2022
    #810     Jul 9, 2022