Yup! This is it. This is how we do it...this is how we roll. Everything is in place and we're firing on all cylinders. I wish I could set my trades and walk away, but unfortunately, the market has a nasty habit of reversing direction at any time, for no apparent reason, so I just can't do that. I have to plan in accordance with the big picture, and then trade in accordance with what is happening at the moment. And since it's time to go to bed, I'll have to close all my open positions now, satisfied with the amount of profit currently available at this time, and then resume trading when I wake up tomorrow (if it's not too late in the morning).
What's going on with the Yen? Five reasons the Japanese Yen could remain weak at current forecast levels: Coronavirus pandemic continues for a longer than expected period of time and the government doesn't have control of the spread, overburdening public health services Coronavirus epidemic in the US is under control, the US economy picks up, US political risks ease, and the Federal Reserve (central bank) increases interest rates, supporting the USD. This may reduce safe haven buying for lower risk currencies like JPY or CHF The Japanese economy falters and inflation only slowly and gradually picks up, increasing the chance of interest rate cuts and other forms of stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) China and US economic growth slows more than expected, reducing China and US trade and lowering demand for Japanese imports (and the Japanese Yen) Economic growth slows down more than anticipated in most countries worldwide
Generally speaking, at the intraday level, the highest temporal measure that demands your attention is the six-hour price range. Most of the time (and ultimately) the general flow of price action will match the direction in which this measure is sloping, yet rates can move against its trajectory for hours at a time, crisscrossing between the bands of its associated moving average envelope(s) at 0.30% deviation under normal circumstances, at 0.45% deviation during periods of heightened volatility/liquidity, and at 0.60% deviation under extreme conditions; and can also continue so long that they eventually reverse this measure. Consequently, the angle of the 2½-hour and 90-minute price range envelopes at 0.17% deviation and 0.9% deviation respectively should be consulted for gauging the general direction of price in the here and now. (The 90-minute price range envelope at 0.19% deviation should also be plotted on the chart to define the limits within which price regularly fluctuates while traversing this general course.) Even so, to follow the intraday trend closely, it is the 47-minute baseline that should be regarded as paramount, with the 42-minute price range envelope at 0.11% deviation revealing the amount of variance one can anticipate observing as price flows along this route. (It also tracks the intraday trend closely, but with a bit more sensitivity.) Potential entry and exit points are suggested by the 14-minute baseline, with the 20-minute baseline helping to confirm if the corresponding short-term trends are genuinely headed in the directions they appear to be traveling, and the 34-minute price range envelope at 0.04% deviation not only conveying intraday reversals inside the 90-minute and 2½-hour price range envelopes, but also short-term reversals between and beyond its upper and lower bands (out to about 0.09% deviation).
I missed ALL the big moves over the last 24 hours and had to result to scalping all morning using the guidelines described in the above post to realize any gains...
I missed ALL the big moves over the last 24 hours and had to resort (not result) to scalping all morning...
Friday / October 22, 2021 / 8:20 AM PST For the last couple of days, your practice has been to just about completely skip all of this stuff... ...and to simply trade in the direction of the 24-hour trend as confirmed by the 48-hour baseline; entering positions as rates come out of pullbacks behind the 24-hour simple moving average—a practice which seems to have pretty much eliminated any losing trades...
Saturday / October 23, 2021 So, after spending a couple of months employing the Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) system from a number of angles, my final recommendation is that I trade in the direction of the 24-hour trend as confirmed by the 36-hour baseline. The easiest way to do this is to use one-hour charts loaded with the 36-, 24-, 16-, 8-, 2- and 1-hour baselines, along with the 24- and 8-hour price range envelopes. Entry levels will vary depending on the strength of the daily trend. When lacking in momentum, reversals with the highest probability of leading to successful trades occur at the outer edges of the 8-hour price range envelope at 0.60% deviation (though less extreme levels which can also work at times are found at 0.45% and 0.30% deviation). This is especially true when the reversals occur on the "far/wrong" side of the 24-hour baseline. However, when an asset is trending strongly, there is little chance the rate will be able to pull back to such a degree, in which case, the best one can hope for is a pullback behind the 16-hour baseline. And yet, when currency pairs are under the influence of monster momentum, pullbacks behind even the 16-hour measure are rare, making pullbacks behind the 8-hour baseline all that a trader is likely to witness. In addition to making these trade opportunities more obvious, working with one-hour charts (as opposed to lower time frames) also helps to minimize any temptation to attempt trading less significant fluctuations in price. (By the way, these particular setups would probably be difficult, if not impossible, to recognize/identify on higher time frame charts). Nonetheless, to enter positions at optimal levels, it is probably a good idea to drop down to at least a 15-minute context, and look for the 15-minute baseline to cross above the 34-minute baseline IF the 34-minute baseline is already sloping or BEGINS to slope in the desired direction (the direction of the daily trend) AND both of these measures are crossing to the corresponding side of the 90-minute baseline (if not the 2-hour baseline as well). Use the bands of the 2-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation to set rational/reasonable stop losses and take-profit targets. (Reversals in the 34-minute price range envelope between and beyond 0.04% out to 0.09% deviation that were referenced in previous posts are too insignificant to be of concern when approaching the market using this particular [longer-term] style of trading.)
No, when I do this, I'm not following price closely enough. Having done so on Sunday and Monday, I am recommending that I trade in the direction of the 6-hour general intraday flow instead, and the 34-minute trend in the immediate short term.
It is when a market becomes highly liquid and volatile that this type of price action comes into play. Also, this is where the 4½-minute trend gets involved.
However, I'm thinking it is better to trade in the direction of the 9-minute moving average envelope at 0.04% deviation rather than in the direction of the 4½-minute trend line, due to the latter measure exhibiting some price fluctuations that are rather fleeting.