Duxon's Archive

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Feb 1, 2019.

  1. expiated


    My need at the moment is not to archive thoughts I might want to retrieve later, but to highlight and coordinate correlated aspects of (and features between) my final set of chart configurations in an effort to come up with a protocol for meshing them all into one cohesive overarching forecast model...

    In getting started on this I am finding it is a major undertaking. I don't have time to complete it right now, so I'm just going to start with AUDJPY and evaluate one pair at a time, as I have opportunity.
    #41     Jul 9, 2019
  2. expiated


    Tuesday, July 9, 2019 / 11:45 a.m. PST


    The pair is bearish from a four-hour perspective, but it is also sitting on local support. Other than that, it is essentially positioned in in the middle of nowhere. It will not hit substantial support until it drops down to at least 74.627, and will not run into substantial resistance until it climbs to at least 76.57.

    From a daily perspective, the pair has been vacillating between 75.10 and 76.40 for the last nine days. Statistically, the odds that it will ultimately fall are greater than the odds that it will ultimately rise. However, this is not terribly significant at the moment in that I don't see much resistance on the daily charts until up around 76.15 to 76.40. There is a lot of room for it to climb between those levels and where it is now at 75.37.

    Given that the pair is in essentially the same place it was since May 15th, is climbing just a tad (from June 20th) for the first time since April 22nd, is sitting on local support from a four-hour perspective, will run into a bit of support from a daily perspective just 26 pips below at 75.10, has gone virtually nowhere over the past nine days, and is bullish in the context of the day-to-day environment, I would be inclined to enter a long position as soon as the hourly trend line reverses north.

    I expect AUDJPY to climb north from 75.40 over the next 24 to 48 hours.
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2019
    #42     Jul 9, 2019
  3. expiated


    Tuesday, July 9, 2019 / 4:00 p.m. PST


    From a daily perspective, the pair is in the middle of nowhere. It has been dropping four days straight, but at a rate the is sustainable indefinitely. It won't hit a significant support level until 0.6830. The first significant resistance is up at 0.7066.

    From a four-hour viewpoint AUDUSD has been riding local support southward for the last 16 to 20 hours. So theoretically, it could reverse north at any time. The first encounter with "serious" support given this context will take place at 0.6904, just 23 pips away.

    On my 60-minute charts, 1st level support is at 0.6918, just 10 pips (approximately) below where the pair is currently located at 0.6927.

    From an intraday perspective, it would make sense to buy the pair upon confirmation of a bona fide reversal north in the hourly trend line.
    #43     Jul 9, 2019
  4. expiated


    Tuesday, July 9, 2019 / 6:00 p.m. PST


    This pair is bullish from the perspective of all my charts—daily, four-hour, one-hour, and five minutes. Intraday stop loss is at 82.92 and take-profit target is at 83.04.
    #44     Jul 9, 2019
  5. expiated


    Tuesday, July 9, 2019 / 6:00 p.m. PST

    EURAUD came down to 1.6023 and gave me more than 100 pips in a single day yesterday, so I would not expect to see it climb any more than 50 pips today, to about 1.6230 (the top of the projected day range).

    On my daily chart, the pair is bullish. On my four-hour chart, the pair has stalled for the last 8 hours (after riding local resistance north for the previous 12 hours). The asset is bullish on my 60-minute chart, but range bound for the last 11 hours. The intraday price range stretches from 1.6164 (stop loss) up to 1.6190 (the first/next take-profit target).
    #45     Jul 9, 2019
  6. expiated


    AUDJPY reversed south at 75.48—there was no follow through. I have another moving average I can use to authorize this kind of a trade, so I'm going to try buying the pair again when this alternative line gives me the go ahead and see how things turn out if I operate in this manner instead.
    #46     Jul 10, 2019
  7. expiated


    Beyond the alternative line I just mentioned above, I have a whole slew of moving averages that convey to me when the day-to-day trend has (possibly) made a full-fledged reversal. When the candlesticks begin forming on the opposite side of all these lines, for now at least, I'm going to call it "clearing the field," which is what CADJPY is poised to do. So I set my stop loss at 82.86 based on the lows from the last 12 hours, and my take-profit target at 83.14 based on the most recent local high. What I'm anticipating is that the pair will remain above 83.00, a bullish signal, and then go on to generate a return.
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2019
    #47     Jul 10, 2019
  8. expiated


    I've been taking pieces of EURAUD as it climbs...

    ScreenHunter_5678 Jul. 10 00.39.jpg

    ...but it seems to be picking up some momentum and might not experience any more pullbacks for awhile. Besides, I'm about to go to bed, so I'm setting my take-profit target at 1.6224 based on a resistance level from June 19th, and I'll check in the morning to see where the rate is after I wake up.
    #48     Jul 10, 2019
  9. expiated


    Wednesday, July 10, 2019 / 1:00 a.m. PST


    If the asset remains below 0.9921, it will have cleared the field on my 60-minute charts. The pair has been falling overall since the end of April on my daily charts, but I would have been much happier shorting it from 1.0035 rather than 0.9921. It is what it is however, so if this is where it wants to resume its southward trajectory, so be it.

    Of course, it is currently bearish on my intraday charts, and has cleared all but the last (authorization) moving average on my four-hour setup.
    #49     Jul 10, 2019
  10. expiated


    Wednesday, July 10, 2019 / 1:15 a.m. PST


    This asset has been stuck between 1.1120 and 1.1545 for eight or nine months now. At 1.1222 it is currently located in the lower half of this range. It just cleared the field on my one-hour chart, so I'm setting my take-profit target at 1.1262 due to the fact that I see quite a bit of congestion from July 2 to July 5 just above that level.
    #50     Jul 10, 2019