La Fin Wednesday / October 7, 2020 My only comment is that I have no comments. NPP is no longer in development...
Friday, October 9, 2020 Someone from Alabama recently contacted me by email expressing an interest in having me teach them how to trade Forex—though they were a little cryptic in mentioning how they became aware of what I do. Time will tell if this person is really genuine or no more serious than many others who pursue a dream of riches without having the dedication and commitment necessary to see it become a reality.
Saturday, October 10, 2020 I remember what you said about the two-hour price range being the backbone of your system, and how the 20-minute baseline (or possibly the 15-minute confirmation moving average) is key when it comes to entering and exiting positions and/or recognizing what is going on in terms of "actionable" price movement; but you just made over $300 in two days trading a demo account using the new (hasn't it been over a year now?) possibly better functioning Nadex beta platform, and here is what you suspect you have learned... A while back you concluded that the one-hour baseline was too slow to be of practical use when it comes to intraday trading. So, you began using the 30-minute baseline for gauging "ultimate" price direction instead, and dropped down even further, to 20 minutes, as a trigger for entering positions, a so-called sweet spot. Well, nothing has changed as far as an hour is concerned. But, it might very well be that a more valid measure of the ultimate intermediate intraday bias/sentiment is the 40-minute baseline, which should (I believe at this time) be used as follows: Enter positions when candlesticks pull back behind the slope of the 40-minute baseline. Use the inner 26-minute price range for setting possible take profit targets, and the outer 26-minute price range for stop losses. The minimum "actionable price movement" is tracked by the 3-minute baseline, but if you wish to be extra safe when entering positions, do not do so until the candlesticks cross over the 12-minute baseline. This is all very straight forward and clear cut, so if it works, it should make trading profitably easy as pie, virtually eliminating drawdown, and almost making losing trades a thing of the past.
I don't know bro! I just opened my one-minute chart profile a moment ago and found I had not loaded the new configuration on all the graphs yet. Once I did, I discovered the need to plot a twenty-minute envelope on a number of them, so the twenty-minute measure is looking mighty powerful once again, dude! I'm thinking that maybe the 40-minute baseline gains significance only if its slope is steep enough! I'll evaluate this later, but right now, I'd say you want to be trading in whichever direction the twenty-minute baseline is headed. Perhaps you will find that you only want to be trading when the 40-minute baseline is evidencing a minimum amount of slope and the 20-minute envelope is angled in that same direction. It will be great if you find that this is a recipe for almost guaranteed success! UPDATE: No my friend, I don't think that goes deep enough. To truly understand what constitutes "undeniable" conditions, I think you're going to have to look at the relationship between the 20-minute, 40-minute and 2-hour baseline slopes.
Sunday, October 11, 2020 In adapting NPP for trading Nadex binary options, a variation I’m calling Baseline Bonanza, I’m now thinking of what I’m doing as rejoining the trend after price’s having deviated away from it. A little over a week ago, I typed somewhere that what I was looking at was so simple that it would probably take someone almost no time at all to learn it, and for that reason, I was nixing the idea of a prop firm that trained recruits as a means of "scaling" the system, and that I was planning instead to explore the possibility of coding algorithms to execute trades using my protocols. Well, Baseline Bonanza looks like it has the potential for both. Proprietary traders could come into the office and monitor their assigned asset(s) for any one of the three scenarios pictured below... However, there is nothing that would make it necessary to plot the indicators which generate these lower-panel graphics on the main chart. So, by monitoring the lower panel histograms and oscillator, employees would be alerted to potentially profitable trade conditions without having any clue as to the exact variables constituting the situation—thereby protecting my intellectual property while still allowing others to benefit from it. (If helpful, I could have the main chart paint standard indicators to help guide the traders.) As for programming the algorithms, it would be a simple matter of telling the computer to enter positions as soon as: (1) the oscillator realigns itself with the three histograms after having deviated in the opposite direction; (2) the oscillator and all three histograms go positive, or as soon as they all go negative, within a specified temporal window; or (3) all three histograms hit critical mass, as quantified via designated parameters. My plan for this week is to keep a tally on how often each of these scenarios result in a successful outcome, and then only trade those that evidence the highest success rates, if any.
Note to Self: For insights into fully automating a trading system, check out AmiBroker as well as the thread by ValeryN titled... Fully Automated Stocks Trading
I just watched a video by AJ Monte where I think I might have seen what another trader meant when referring to cycles: If so, then the way I conceptualize cycles is nothing like the way whoever originally came up with the idea thought of it. When I’m looking for cycles, it’s something more akin to the frequency waves created by sound. So, I guess I should simply dispense with the term "cycle" and only refer to "waves" from now on.
So far, adapting the Baseline Bonanza version of NPP to Nadex is going well enough, but unfortunately, the covid-19 restrictions mean that you're going to be delayed in getting all the paperwork in to reactivate your account there.
Tuesday / October 13, 2020 / 8:50 AM PST You were very close before bro, but it wasn't quite "perfection." Wait... now that I think about it, I suppose the "Baseline Reversals" option was spot on, because the new rule is to only enter positions when the (now four oscillators and) three histograms have ALL moved to the same side of the "Price Anomaly Channel." (The four oscillators are all virtually identical.) In any case, this adapting NPP to Nadex has been very fruitful. The instructional materials it is generating on how to trade the system profitably are clear as day, with the decision-making process on exactly when one ought to pull the trigger leaving little room for doubt. Also, when you back out to an hourly time frame, the four-hour baseline really does still have relevance. Yet, the fact of the matter remains that there is an awful lot of room for price to go in all kinds of directions before finally getting back into the four-hour flow. So at best, it is simply something to bear in mind (the larger context). Practically speaking, it's the two-hour flow that serves as the highest frame of reference for intraday Forex trading.