Duxon's Archive

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Feb 1, 2019.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    In November of 2015 I developed a successful multiple simple moving average envelope recipe for trading the Forex market that I have been tweaking ever since. As of yesterday however, I suspect that this 3-year endeavor essentially came to an end, so the purpose of this new journal is to simply provide myself with a convenient location to informally archive my activity going forward, which I believe will facilitate any attempts I might make to recall past thoughts or whatnot at various points in the future.

    In this case, the five-minute chart setup I’ve currently labeled “Shadow Display” appears to have detected weakness in CADJPY’s push north, so I’m curious to see if the exchange rate continues to fall from 83.64, or if it is able to get its second wind and climb even higher (which I’m not anticipating).

    CADJPYM5.png
     
  2. expiated

    expiated

    It was recently suggested to me that I should try adding price action rather than simply stay with indicators, as price is faster than indicators, plus indicators change the reality of what’s going on with a chart.

    However, I do my trading based primarily on statistics (I trust the math and the objectivity of data a lot more than I trust my eyes) and have every intention of continuing to do so.

    Though I was anticipating that it wouldn’t happen, CADJPY did indeed get a second wind, and given that I trust/like the indicators I am now using and am therefore set on sticking with them, I analyzed the numbers in an effort to design a statistics-based lower panel oscillator that would provide me with a data-generated graphic for detecting weakness in an asset’s push north or south as opposed to how I tried doing it this morning.

    The result (Shadow Oscillator) is pictured below…

    CADJPYM5.png

    Besides, there is no shortage of analysts who are more than happy to provide a daily or weekly wrap-up summarizing what already happened…but before I would be willing to try a system other than one I developed myself, I would have to see the person making the recommendation calling out trades BEFORE the fact, as I do, and as I've seen done by folks like James Roof, Nick McDonald, Stephan Whiteside, Christopher Lewis, A.J. Monte, Cristian Moreno, and Harry Boxer, whom I respect because of their boldness in making pre-market analyses.

    I would also need to see that the trades called by such an individual typically turn out better than the ones I myself forecast using my own Numerical Price Prediction system.

    ScreenHunter_3339 Feb. 01 13.57.jpg
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2019
  3. expiated

    expiated

    Using this new set of criteria, I am waiting to see if AUDJPY falls from 79.75.

    AUDJPYH1.png
     
  4. expiated

    expiated

    I'm going to go ahead and pocket my gains right here...

    AUDJPYH1.png

    That took two hours.
     
  5. expiated

    expiated

    The same criteria suggested I should buy EURAUD...

    EURAUDH1.png

    So, I'm hoping the pair will keep climbing.
     
  6. expiated

    expiated

    Thankfully, EURAUD did indeed continue to climb.

    This morning the numbers gave me buy signals on GBPUSD and GBPJPY, and a sell signal on EURGBP.

    GBPJPYH1.png

    This time it should only take about an hour for my targets to be hit.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2019
  7. expiated

    expiated

    I’m no longer changing any of the settings or parameters I use, but my chart configurations change as I work at striking the ideal balance between maximizing the frequency of my trades, with the amount of profit I’m able to realize per trade, with my daily success rate.

    I could essentially achieve a virtual 100% daily success rate where I willing to limit myself to an average of between zero to three trades per day. But on the other hand, I could maximize the frequency of trades executed on a daily basis by limiting myself to around four to seven pips per trade.

    It simply depends on which relationships between reoccurring price patterns, horizontal support and resistance levels, typical price ranges, and short-term & intraday trends I intend to use to plot the graphics for mapping out the dance steps I take as I frolic with price.

    Currently, I am leaning toward the setup below:

    evaluation.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2019
  8. expiated

    expiated

    Camera Ready.png

    As of the above configuration, I think I'm just about there.

    ScreenHunter_3413 Feb. 07 10.43.jpg
     
  9. expiated

    expiated

    Note to self: You like Andrew Lockwood, but he's not one of the traders you learned from, so you are not going to remember his name unless you note it somewhere...hence this "note to self."

    I have not done any trading at all within the last 24 hours due to working on another project, and to spending whatever time I could carve out here and there working diligently on how I might automate the kind of results displayed in the previous post.

    I normally focus on the main chart and almost totally ignore the lower panel, but to my surprise, it looks like my solution to coding an MT4 expert advisor (EA) lies within a simple oscillator. If I use the configuration that appears below, instructing the program to buy whenever the white oscillator crosses above the dotted yellow line and sell whenever it crosses below it, I believe the results will approximate my performance on my best days of trading.

    Algo Chart.png

    (I have also reintroduced the authorization channel, but rely on it more for context now rather than for deciding when to enter or exit positions.)

    I will want to test the trade alerts manually first before I pay someone to write the code by simply executing trades myself in accordance with the lower panel signals. If that works, I'll write a "fake" formula for the coder to use when creating and testing the EA for me to protect my intellectual property.

    Then I'll substitute the fake formula with the genuine code myself after the coder sends me the working EA.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2019
  10. expiated

    expiated

    The configuration looks a little bit different as of today, but the automated trades are still made in the exact same manner.

    new look.png

    I'm still looking for a coder though.

    ScreenHunter_3522 Feb. 11 23.59.jpg

    ScreenHunter_3521 Feb. 11 23.59.jpg