Duration ratio between the US 30y and the 10y since the 70's?

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by Daal, Jan 16, 2017.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    Anyone has data on that? If there is a chart somewhere of how that relatioship has changed I would appreciate it
     
  2. you can approximate in excel if rough calcs are fine for you with =DURATION(C7, C7+365*30, D7, D7, 2) where c7 = observation date, d7 = 30y yield on the observation date. The ratio will asymptotically decrease as yields go higher. In the below red assumes that 30y yield = 10y yield and blue that 30y = 10y yield + 1.5%
     
  3. Daal

    Daal

    Have you plugged historical data in to see how that evolved?
    I found some data here
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation#analysisResults

    It didn't had yields but annual returns. Looking at the ratio between long-term treasury % changes and 10y treasury % changes (and removing the negative ratios), I'm getting a 1.75 ratio of long-term treasury to 10y treasury
     
  4. pyradius

    pyradius

    I show about 0.907 at present, assuming the above formula with daily yield prices.
     
  5. @Daal
    attached pic with fred2 data.
    @pyradius
    yields as decimals. also you haven't changed 30 to 10 for calculation of 10y duration.
     
    pyradius likes this.
  6. Daal

    Daal

  7. no, nothing, that bit of msg wasn't directed at you.