Dur Goods

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dtrader98, May 23, 2007.

  1. Have to go with the dipsters on this one.
    Talk about a divergent indicator--

    New Orders for Dur Goods YOY rate has been dropping at about exactly opposite the rate of S&P 500 rise.
  2. Doesn't look good. Weakest Japanese exports to U.S. in two years.


    Japan Export Growth Slows; Shipments to U.S. Fall (Update2)

    By Lily Nonomiya

    May 24 (Bloomberg) --
    Japan's exports to the U.S. fell for the first time in two years, underscoring the nation's reliance on faster growing markets in Asia and Europe.

    Exports rose 8.3 percent in April from a year earlier, cooling from 10.3 percent in March, the Ministry of Finance said today in Tokyo. Shipments to the U.S. dropped 4.8 percent, the steepest decline since May 2004.

    The slowest growth in four years in the U.S., destination of a fifth of Japanese exports, curbed demand for automobiles. Exports to all other regions increased, with shipments to Asia climbing at the fastest pace in three months, led by China.

    ``Japan's trade is being supported by demand from Europe and China,'' said Noriaki Haseyama, an economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research in Tokyo. ``U.S. consumer spending is weakening, especially in car sales, and we need to monitor how much impact that will have on the global economy.''

    The yen traded at 121.62 per U.S. dollar at 10:54 a.m. in Tokyo from 121.60 before the report. The yield on Japan's 10- year bond rose 1.5 basis points to 1.695 percent.

    Auto shipments fell 7.5 percent, the biggest decline since April 2004 when they slid 15.1 percent. Autos represent about 10 percent of Japan's overall shipments to the U.S.

    Toyota Motor Corp., the world's largest carmaker by market value, expects sales growth in North America, its largest market, to slow to 1.6 percent this fiscal year from 15 percent. The company is building factories in Canada, Russia and China to make up for weak demand in the U.S.

    U.S. Slowdown

    ``The U.S. slowdown is already affecting exports and that's making companies more cautious,'' said Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. ``Should U.S. demand stall further and affect other parts of Asia, that will hurt export demand.''

    Concern about declining demand in the U.S. has already made itself felt in Japan. Machinery orders fell 4.5 percent in March and companies said they expect orders to plunge 11.8 percent this quarter.

    ``Japanese companies are expected to remain hesitant about expanding investment until they see more solid signs of an economic recovery in the U.S,'' said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo.

    The U.S. economy expanded an annualized 1.3 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in four years.

    Recent statistics show growth in the U.S. may accelerate. Consumer sentiment rose in May for the first time in four months as strength in the labor and stock markets helped overcome record gasoline prices.

    Asian Demand

    ``The U.S. economy will probably regain momentum in the third quarter and the same thing can be said about Japanese exports to the country,'' said Kato.

    Even though the U.S. remains Japan's largest country destination for exports, Japan ships more than double the amount of goods to Asia in yen terms.

    Exports to the European Union rose 9.7 percent to 1 trillion yen ($8.2 billion) in April, slowing from a 14 percent increase in March. The value of shipments to the U.S. was 1.3 trillion yen.

    Shipments to Asia rose 11 percent to 3.2 trillion yen after growing 10 percent the previous month. Exports to China surged 16.8 percent to 966 billion yen.

    The trade surplus rose 51.8 percent to 926.7 billion yen. The median estimate of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for the surplus to widen to 953.7 billion yen. Imports climbed 3.5 percent, faster than a 0.1 percent increase in March.

    Both exports and imports rose less than analysts expected. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted exports would gain 11 percent and imports would rise 6 percent.
  3. Since we are making more and not saving, and from the looks of that, we aren't buying durable goods, we must be spending a heck of a lot more on "non-durable goods" or services?

    That year on year chart sure looks like a decline to me....

    Nobody ever mentions the year on year that I recall.

    PS: just saw the post above. The 1.3% number is going to get revised down to about 1%, I think I read a week or so back.
  4. S2007S


    May 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Apr - 0.7% 0.9% 4.3%

    market expects 0.9%,

    I think durable orders could come in at 1%++
  5. I'd imagine that would be good for the market and the dollar, and bad for gold if that's the result.
  6. We'll see

    I'm sure the market will react favorably
  7. Sure, everything makes it go up anymore. I imagine if there was actually any real good news, then it would drop out of rate hike fear.
  8. The actual numbers arent important, its the interpretation that matters.
  9. o.6%

    They can't even lower expectations enough to meet reality.
  10. Nobody cares about durable goods..it's a bubkis number..
    #10     May 24, 2007