Overbought? Why? because you think it is? Picking tops is one quick way to the poor- house. BEWARE THE PERMA BEAR!
Only if you are actively shorting. If you resist a market rally because you believe it's unsustainable, your maximum loss is opportunity loss minus the gain on the alternative use of your money. So, if the market rally causes you to miss out on a 8% gain, yet you get 5.5% in another vehicle, your loss is 2.5%, and that's assuming you're able to successfully pick winning stocks rather than losing ones (i.e. you're not simply indexed, and the 8% gain is not an indexed one).
Our calculation of past dates is as accurate as the calculation of future dates ... just like how we exactly calculated how long we will be stuck in Iraq The slope of this market going up is in no way similar to the slope in a bubble market ... compare with QQQQ 1999-2000 ... but the only weird thing about it is that the economy is not really growing at the pace the indexes are moving upwards at ... most moves seem to be only due to one company buying another ... like someone mentioned before I think it really is the oil money being cashed in into the stocks and futures market ...
They said the same thing in 1995 and the market went on a moon shot for 5 more years. Put up all your stupid little toys and buy some dips, if we take out a swing low on a daily chart then you can get bearish until join the fun FREE MONEY FOR ALL WHO DARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What you really mean is that volatility increases near the end of cycles. It is because weak hands are fully invested at that point. Big players do not jump in and out like weak hands and pikers.