Dumb luck..........?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by inquiet, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. inquiet


    Ok, so I've been an active trader for many many years, primarily equities and currencies until I had a major account blowup three years ago. I had been holding an equity for several months and was deep in the red. Without all the gory details, a major news outlet erroneously reported one morning that the company was consulting with a bankruptcy specialist firm. The stock dropped 50%, I was on margin, and well I dumped trying to salvage what was left, walked away from the market devastated. I'm talking allot of money to the 99% of us. Anyway, I vowed not to "invest" ever again. If I'm going to be in the market, I'm cleaning the slate everyday before market close. So, I've just started trading futures, ES specifically, trading only 1 contract at a time. On my first attempt, I made 15 round trips during US market hours. At the end of the day I was up a little over $1500 minus commissions. Trading mainly PA and support /resistance. I lost a small amount on 2 trades mainly due to slippage. Now I'm a little concerned. It seemed like it was too easy and was just a lucky day. I'm stepping away and rethinking what happened, but now I'm worried that thinking about my approach will just muck things up. Anyway, some traders are probably thinking....ahhh fresh meat in the ES. But, I'm determined to take some money from the market by being conservative/protective and trading price action. Thoughts?
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2019
    Robert Morse likes this.
  2. p0box4


    The only way to find out is to keep trading and see what the results are after a few weeks/months.

    You can not come to any sort of conclusion after 1 day.
    murray t turtle and inquiet like this.
  3. Robert Morse

    Robert Morse Sponsor

    Sounds like a great start, Don't scale yet. Start each day fresh and don't look back. No such thing as house money.
    krugman25, bullmarket79 and inquiet like this.
  4. MarkBrown


    what i want to know is what was your risk per trade? how much were you down at any one time in a single trade?
    murray t turtle, trendo and smallfil like this.
  5. smallfil


    No matter what you trade, you have to manage your risk or the market is going to do it for you! Luck only goes so far and eventually, your luck will run out! Futures has it own risk and probably, more risky than stocks or options. Before you trade, make sure your risk parameters are set and assume the worst case scenario which is the best assumption. If you take too much risk per trade relative to your total capital, you blowing out your account is only a question of when? Too many take the plunge without accounting for the risk involved.
    inquiet likes this.
  6. Overnight


    Get it while it is hot, but be sure to not limit yourself to just one instrument. I was on the fence about that for quite a while, and tried to limit myself. When October came around, I noticed that the PA became available all over the place.

    But it is like RDK says...A good day makes a great trader not. You gotta' keep on trucking, because the market conditions can change very quickly.
    tommcginnis, inquiet and wrbtrader like this.
  7. wrbtrader


    You made $1500 on day one via price action / s/r...then you lost a small amount on the next 2 trades ???

    You should only be concerned if your trade method was never backtested on Emini ES futures or never simulated traded or you don't keep any real statistics...any of the three will give you "confidence" in what you're doing to minimize the concern.

    tommcginnis and inquiet like this.
  8. inquiet


    Waiting for someone to ask that. I kept all my trades between 5-8 pts. Risking three to four pct. of equity on any one trade. This is what I'm concerned about, I need to be more conservative on any individual trade, I know it was partial luck. Just like one who reads a couple books about gambling, has a good run at the card table, and then believes their on their way to being a professional card player. I'm under no illusions. I may have some skill at reading price action from staring at currency charts for hours on end over the years.
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2019
  9. Overnight


    tommcginnis and inquiet like this.
  10. inquiet


    Well, statistics are limited , 1 day to be exact ...lol. PA imo isn't necessarily something that needs to be backtested if you have enough time invested in watching charts. Support/resistance, congestion of price for entries, while watching volume to create another trading trend. It sounds so elementary. But sometimes the simplest of approaches is all that's needed. Now I'm sounding like the guy that read the book fully deluded...lol . A broken watch is certain to be right twice a day. :)
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2019
    #10     Jan 1, 2019