Dude, Are you still trying to trade trends?

Trends exist, people get too focused on just price data and "charts" and such and don't really understand the mechanics. The best trends are where you have an imbalance that will create a vicious (virtuous) cycle, that as price tries to move to balance it, it becomes more imbalanced.

For example:

The collapse in Oil.
There began a supply imbalance, too much investment, shale, blah blah blah.
Now we have supply>demand glut.
But wait, as prices fall, suppliers actually INCREASE their rate of production trying to keep their heads above water (the correct action would be of course to DECREASE production, but that wouldn't work for them given the structural overbuild/over investment/marginal profitability).

So then you have: Price goes lower, supply goes higher, demand stays the same, and that loop continues until suppliers are blown completely out of the water.

THAT is a trend, it will manifest itself in price action, people with dumb automated systems may catch it eventually, but someone like a Soros understands what drives price and understands how market structure can create huge moves, and then trades accordingly. I doubt he is getting chopped up in a MA crossover or Donchian breakout system on some market where there is no sustainable imbalance.

People who say there are no trends = idiots
People who say there are trends and try to trade them via price action on a 5m chart = basically idiots
People who identify scenarios in which there is a sustainable imbalance = $$$$$$

 

Here we are again, with George Soros. What does he have to do with daytrading again, exactly? He's the guy that bet against the BOE or something, made a ton of money? Billions? That was not daytrading. Stop bringing him up since it is irrelevant?

 

Plus G.S doesn't mention "Trends" in any of his book. What he talks about is reflexivity. But he admits that it's not his theory that made him money. But its ability to adapt.

There is a world btw positive feedbacks and someone buying the price nearing a trendline.

 

Day trading and trends don't belong in the same sentence. I merely mention Soros as other people were discussing him earlier in the thread, and I believe he is someone who understands trends quite well, whatever term he happens to use for them.

Daytrading is about order flow and program trading, that's it. If you aren't HFT, and if you don't have some edge related to order flow, and your timeframe is short, you are going to get smoked. Not if but when. Come back to me in 10 years and prove me wrong.

 

So if one does not fit your parameters above (underlined by me), they cannot trade a trend? Why does a trend have to be really long-term? Can't it be short?

 

Can someone please show TD yesterday's CL chart starting at 10:30 AM ET, and show the short-term down-trend and then up-trend that occurred within 2 hours? Trend-channel breaks and whatnot? I would but my trading PC if off, and I am le' tired.

 

???????

 

How did you even prove to yourself that charting works but not just you imagine it works?

 

Is this a trick question? And I'm not joking either... You will know if something is working when you start to see profits.

 

????