Quite true....though sometimes a sniff can be an irresistable clue to what lies beneath the covers... Bruce
Hope you keep posting here.. as I have been swing trading for years. Will follow and contribute if you do. Look forward to it. Ice p.s. Jaime Paris
04/03 trades SEPR The stock gaped up. I did not take my profit and now it is a loss. In the future when a stock will gap I will move my protective stop to lock profits. I still hold the stock but I am now down -19.99. CERN Yesterday I closed my short position and today the stock gaped down. I missed a 1000$ profit oportunity. GRRRRR!!!!!!! ICN I was stoped out for a total loss of 112.99. This should not happen anymore since I will use tighter stops now. New positions ACS I sold ACS today and was stoped out with a loss of 63$. If I had kept the stock I would be profitable now. I was stoped out because the market was going up. I will try not to short sell stocks moving up when the overall market moves up. others -100 ESI @ 26.99 : +49 and STOP=27.46 +100 LGND @ 7.46 : +22 and STP=7.29 -100 CNF @ 29.40 : -5 and STOP=29.71 From today, I will use tighter stops, take profit after gaps and follow market moves.
NOW closing CERN is something that requires some serious soul searching!!!!!! Trades like that can make a quarter. Did it have anything to do with Hambrecht's insane upgrade/analyst note from April 1st, and 45 price target? If not what compelled you to exit? Maybe you need to re-think stops. Why not (next time) buy some inexpensive calls to get you through earnings... and define your risk on said shorts thereby allowing you to stick with your conviction? This is what I did on BBY. Took it short up to 31.20 from 29.50, added more... and then rode it like a carnival ride down to mid- 25s. In swing trading to capture the big fish... you have to exercise more patience imho, be a little more flexible in stopping out with not too tight a rein. Ice
Hi Bruce, I agree with that. I expect my stocks to gap in the right direction the next day. It happened a few times. I made big money on these times but I lost a big part of this money not controling my risk on loosy position. I definitely have to focus more on my risk on each trade. As of now I will use tighter stops. This also means that I will also have to have good entry points... not easy when swing trading. How do you guys do? Once you chose a stock, when do you get in and how do you set up your stops? Thanks for your help, DT1
I don't agree with a plan to "not short sell stocks when OVERALL market moves up". That is too broad a generalization to make for a valid trading rule. IMHO. If you --were-- short ACS... consider looking at the sector itself first... and it's relative strength to the broader markets. Then IF the chart yells short.. and the intra-day is diverging from the broad markets... or underperforming... you gotta re-think holding the position. Also what about key S/R areas. IF it has not breached said levels then it should be held regardless of what the broad market is doing. A rising tide lifts all boats, even the (shorts) dogs sometimes. Ice
Hi Trend Fader, I still hold it. I agree it is quite risky but I like this kind of set up. It moved up on higher volume , I expect it to gap up tomorrow... time will tell. What kind of patterns do you trade? Do you look for stock consolidating? DT1
Primarily I will play 2 types of setup... Stocks in a strong trend pulling back and I would buy/short the moment the trend resumed.. I play flags and pennants in strong markets... and sometimes I play cup and handle setups... Sometimes a breakout of very tight consolidation. My exit strategy is kinda mechnical/ discretionary.. and that is the key to my profitably.. All of my entries and setups.. are just trying to pick stocks moving up or down at a good risk to reward point.. the exit is where I focus most... For a trend stock.. I will initially use an moving avg as a stop... for breakouts... I would use something like a trailing 2bar low... For each setup I have a different exit strategy... As I enter the trade.. I write down the exit strategy I will use on paper.. and execute it... I never change or tinker it... because that is dangerous. this thead has some of the stuff I trade... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=15554&perpage=6&pagenumber=1 --MIKE