Hi, DRT I just wonder where these statistics come from? Here's my picture with "synthetic" MP (based on spot-price). I also like to see the VolumeProfile along with MP. Sometimes it shows if price is/isn't supplied with volume. BR, Igor.
I am not sure I understand your question?? When you say "where do these stats come from?". My charts are just a graphical representation of the price distribution of the currency or futures discussed. Be sure to look at the charts I post closely. Some are monthly, some weekly and some daily. Can you be more specific on your question and I will do my best to answer it. DRT
You wrote: " A NORMAL day occurs 62% of the time A NORMAL variation day occurs about 20% of the time These two types of distribution on the curve make up 82% of all your trading days. Do not forget this. A TREND day only occurs about 6% of the time. " Where did you get those numbers: 62%, 20%, 6%? I mean you could take 100 days of EC history and see 62 normal days, 20 nv-days and 6 trend days. Is that the way you got those %%s?
I will have to go back and find the referene for this. I made a copy of this and it either came from Dalton's, Mind Over Markets, the CBOT intro course or Steidlmayers books. I can not remember exactly but this is all I have ever read on MP. Here is the entire text Days Normal Day â Normal days occur 62% of the time with prices trading within the Initial Balance 90% of the time. Normal Variation Day â Normal variation days occur about 20% of the time and are very much like normal days but the Initial Balance is 50% of the day's range. Neutral Day â Neutral days occur about 5% of the time. The Initial Balance is about 70% to 85% of the day's range and there are range extensions on both sides of the Initial Balance. This type of day is caused by long-term buyers and sellers and often signals the tail activity of a distribution curve. Non-Trend Day â Non-trend days occur about 6% of the time. They usually have a small initial balance that is 95% of the day's range, with good volumes traded considering the small range. Non-trend days signal either trend continuation, or possible changes that a market will be moving into a new or different distribution curve. Trend Day â Trend days occur about 6% of the time. They have a small Initial balance and build little or no value. The initial balance is about 25% of the day's range. Trend days are also known as liquidation days and signal either the Long-term buyers or Long-term sellers liquidating positions. Personaly I am not hung up on the numbers as much as the message which is that "the bulk of the time, you are trading the normal value curve. So if you think price is going to run away North or South every very often, you will likely get stopped out alot. Today is a great example in the EURUSD
Downtheriver, How do you adjust for day type when currencies trade 24hrs and how do you calcualte the IB, which openning half hour?
Ok, i see. You just use the basic message. i thought you went deeper and calculated stats for different instruments. This phrase "the bulk of the time, you are trading the normal value curve" is just a parallel to a problem of differing "flat" from "trend" on different timeframes. Anyway, i appreciate your market philosophy much. But in this topic particularly i have another view. Thanks and keep on posting! Igor.
I do not use Market Profile. I simply watch price distribution for a normal daily session in 30 minute increments. It is not the same thing. No volume stats, etc. If I was using MP. I would open with Asia and close it at 11:00 AM US session. Clear as mud I guess. DRT
Glad you asked. Now we can talk about something I understand. We had a decent day yesterday, but not what I expect on a beautiful fall day on the Chesapeake Bay. Well now, if you have ever fished up (down, sideways?) this way you would get a laugh out of this. We were all set up chumming (this is where you grind up Menhadden, Alewives, old fingers, etc and float it out of the back of the boat). The goal here is to create a "chum slick" and the rock will come to feed. Then they just jump in the boat We were all set up near a spot we call the Target Ship. Old above water wreck that military bombs and practices on. Well, all of the sudden this 50-60' long metal star wars thing with machine guns and the like comes flying into our chum slick telling us to move away for safety because they were doing "range evolutions". Well, I was in no postion to argue with the captain and his heavily armed contingent. Especially when the guns were spinning around on remote control. Soooo...I moved on and we didn't catch much after that. But it was another great day on the Bay. Nothing like it. Now something I will never understand.... CAD - I think you made the ideal entry form a risk reward standpoint. On the spot side I have 1.1110 as the bottom of the current distribution. If we move below here to test 1040 and settle below the 1110 level, then I am going to get out as it is a signal of more downside. As I have been saying since 1974, the upside from here looks promising. Good luck on your trade and keep us updated. DRT