I can think of stronger words than just "nice", but, heck, that's just me. DRT, this "study of value" you've referred to a few times, both in this thread and your Successful Trading - Advice and Guidance thread. What sources would you recommend to learn more about that?
BRITISH POUND FUTURES TRADE THEME I am not sure if there are any other traders of British Pound Futures in this hemisphere, but I a looking to re-establish a short position on a move back up thru 1.8954 area. The theme of the trade would be to have a profitable short position as we move down toward the 8890/80 area which is key in the distribution. After the battle is waged in this area, intial targets are coming in around 8749 area this week. CAUTION: Obviously BP is bullish now. If you are more comfortable, wait to see if the 8890 area is breached. Wait for a setup here and get short. Looking up, if you enter on a sell extreme or surge thru the 8954 area, I would cancel the theme of this trade on a move back above 1.9000 or before. DRT
Canadian Dollar Trade Overview CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES TRADE (CD) I am still hanging in on my Canadian Dollar Futures Trade but I need a move down soon or I will get out. Below is a MONTHLY distribution. The magenta line marked "M River" around the 8979 area is the key here. I need a solid move down thur this level and then a price auction on down to the bottom of the curve. This distribution will end with Friday's trading. The fact that we are still climbing the top of the curve is not good and is cause for extreme caution. If we get thru here, I think we have some strong CAD weakness coming next month. If you are looking to get short this contract on a daily basis. Look for a move down thru .8975. You can enter short near here (not above though) or wait for a pullback to this level and set up for .8929 and .8884 near term. USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING THIS PAIR. DRT
12:19 USD/CAD: 1.1120/25 Holding the Line] Boston, September 27. Pressure remains on the 1.1120/25 area support with dealers reporting the usual M&A flows as well as quarterly portfolio rebalancing helping keep the CAD firm. US hedging was spotted earlier this week at those lows, but recent bids have been more elusive to identify. Momentum player are seen jumping on any break of 1.1120, opening the way for 1.1095 followed by 1.1045. US durable goods and home sales data are the main movers on the calendar at 12:30 and 14:00 GMT respectively. Offers start at 1.1175 and extend through 1.1200 near-term, dealers report. USD/CAD trades now at 1.1142.
Many times I consider a day like today a positioning day. US Data at 8:30 and 10:00 will shove prices to extremes and the options related flows help move things also.
When trading price distribution it is important to understand that A NORMAL day occurs 62% of the time A NORMAL variation day occurs about 20% of the time These two types of distribution on the curve make up 82% of all your trading days. Do not forget this. A TREND day only occurs about 6% of the time. Understand the curve and learn to take advantage of this understanding. Especially if you are a day or session trader. Look at the curve below. It seems as though the curve needs to trade up to balance. My guess is that we will head up to test the top 2715/20 maybe more and then settle back down near value. If you are a session trader, watch this develop. You do not have to be a Market Profile genius to benefit from this understanding. If nothing else it will caution you when placing a buy or sell order on an extreme. I do not subscribe to MP. BTW - The box around price represents 2X standard deviation from value. Sound familiar? DRT