One thing I have noticed after staring at price action for so long is that when an "00" number is breached, value will be tested on either side for approx 15 points. So lets say you trade down thru 1.2800, many times 2785 will hold and value will build around 2800, back up to 2815 until a new price is accepted and we move in one direction or the other. Obviously, it doesn't always happen this way, but it is a fairly often occurrence. DRT
A check on da bonds has them not cooperating again today, so anymore downside is unlikely. I am going fishing. It is rockfish season here on the Chesapeake. Or striped bass for you Northern folk. Try to let this 2720 (spot) midrange play out if you can. If we get down below here it will mean more downside to the 2580 area possibly in spot. If this holds though, it could set up the breakout to the top so adjust your loss accordingly. I will check back in later tonight. Tight lines. DRT
Monday evening update..not making much traction which is not a good sign. Short 50 contracts EC at 2850. Closed at 2805. Up 45 ticks or $28,125. Short 20 contracts CD at 8977. Closed 8974. Up 3 ticks or $600 Short 10 contracts BP at 9041. Closed 9019. Up 18 ticks or $1,375. Long 10 contracts USDJPY at 116.19. Closed 116.60. Up 41 ticks or $4,100.
Reminder for all you early risers in the Eastern US.... German IFO Data is due at 4:00 AM EST (8:00 GMT). Not sure if I am going to rise and shine for that one or not. See you tommorrow. DRT
Euro May Drop on Concern German Business Confidence Is Waning By Kosuke Goto Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may weaken for a second day against the dollar and yen on expectations a survey today will show business confidence in Germany slipped this month. The report may convince traders to reduce bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates twice more by year-end. Europe's single currency yesterday snapped a three-day rally against the dollar after a government report showed Germany's inflation rate dropped to its lowest in more than two years. ``Weak business confidence data in Germany mean the planned ECB rate increases may not come true, especially a December hike,'' said Masashi Kurabe, a currency manager in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's largest lender by assets. ``The euro has a downside risk with the report.'' The euro traded at $1.2746 as of 8:01 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.2745 in late New York yesterday. The 12-nation single currency bought 148.47 yen compared with 148.62. The dollar fetched 116.48 yen from 116.60. The euro may move between $1.2680 and $1.2780 against the dollar, and 147.80 yen and 148.80 yen today, Kurabe said. The Ifo institute's index of business optimism slipped for a third month to 104.4 in September from 105 in August, the Munich- based institute report may show today, according to the median estimate of 44 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Consumer prices in Germany rose 1.1 percent from a year earlier after increasing 1.8 percent in August, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said yesterday, using a harmonized European Union method. Economists expected an inflation rate of 1.2 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. From August, consumer prices fell 0.4 percent. The Frankfurt-based central bank has increased borrowing costs four times since December to 3 percent. It next meets Oct. 5