Sunday 9/24 Update on these postions... Short 50 contracts EC at 2850. Closed at 2843. Up 7 ticks or $4,375 Short 20 contracts CD at 8977. Closed 8970. Up 7 ticks or $1,400 Short 10 contracts BP at 9041. Closed 9023. Up 18 ticks or $1,125. Long 10 contracts USDJPY at 116.19. Closed 116.49. Up 30 ticks or $3,000.
Here's my short term thoughts on the EURUSD and EC as of Sunday 9/24. EURUSD As I mentioned earlier, there are well defined North and South borders for the current price distribution dating back to June 2006. The North border is 2830. With the assistance of CB selling and option related shenanigans, this level held on Friday. The Southern border on the curve is near 2580 and the key midrange area is 2720. The breakout will trigger from this area. Has this already occurred? Maybe? We may very well test the top again before heading into the midrange. If we break thru the 2830 area and settle above here, then the breakout will likely be up. If we test the 2720 area and move below, we will give the 2580 area a test. Settling below this level indicates a move down. EC I trade Euro Futures (EC) instead of the spot market. I like to watch the bid/ask on the globex. You can traslate the values above to this contract to match the levels. Here are some specifics if you trade this short term. At the opening today, 2832 area is a key test. I would not be surprised to see a gap open around this level. If we gap below and this level holds, this indicates a solid move down. Look for 2748 if this occurs, then 2704 area. If we move up from 2832, the 2887 top area is next, then 2943. My trade.... Short EC at 2850...I am looking for continued range trading and a re-test of the midrange resolve before the breakout. I am not sure there is enough willingness by the big boys to take the EUR up just yet but it is certainly getting close with the dismal data coming out of the US. I will continue to post the key levels of the EC that are contained with the broad range described above in the short term. I entered this trade early in hindsight and it was based on a breach of the key 2832 area described above. I will get out and take my lumps on a move and settle up thru the top. Personally, I thought a pretty strong message was being conveyed on Friday or what. With bonds up like they were, I was very surprised to see the late day creep head down like it did. Even the USDJPY advanced with bond yields falling. Not sure if it was just a Friday thing. Also, although there were rumors of CB activity at the top, I could not see it on the bid/ask of the GLOBEX. THere were a few 400's that popped up here and there, but no large numbers like I suspected. I traded the European session early, early Firday morning also and did not see it. I am sure option plays will take us near the 2850, 2800, 2750 levels in spot in any case. Who wins is another story. DRT
A generalization..... I have several longer term studies that point to a major change in October. As I have said before, I do not trade based on these studies, but I certainly use them to help shape my thoughts. If you study this chart, you will see that it is based on the big top and the recent big bottom at the end of last year. At the 61.8 fibo the market attempted to reverse direction and move down but was unable and consolidation has occurred for what seems like an eternity. This study has the first week of October coming in at the 100% line. These time projections are fairly good at indicating change, but unfortunately they don't tell us which way. Normally, each point reverses value. This week will be a key at forecasting the month of August so be alert. DRT
The US Dollar index is clinging to the uptrend line. It was tested once again last week. I keep thinking we are at the make or break point in the currency markets, but they never make or break. One thing is for sure, when they do finally go, it will be ugly. Time to sharpen up, cause Mr. October is coming. I don't think hedge funds trade currencies do they?? :eek: DRT
Canadian Dollar heading into 9/24 This pair is a different animal. I am not going to go into any long discussion on it other then to say I think it represents a tremendous opportunity for profit over the next many, many months. I am anti oil, commods so this is my proxy sort of. Feel free to post any thoughts. I have read some good discussion in the USDCAD thread. From a price distrubution standpoint... North we have 1320. South we have 1110. Midrange is 1250. This pair is set to break and I am leaning towards the upside also. Short term (Closed at 1164 on Friday) 1149 area is a key support area. If this holds, we should get a nice move up. 1209, then 1269 in the near term stand out. If 1149 gives way then 1110 is in focus then 1038. If spot settles below 1110, this indcates further downside to 1030 and 1.0920. CD (CAD Futures) Close at .8970 on Friday. Key level is .8975 area. If this holds then a move down to ..8929, then .8884. DRT
Do you know where your trades are being placed in relation to value? If you are trying to develop a successful methodology, then find out.
EURUSD Things are going to get intense as the EURUSD approaches the 2750/2720 area. Hang on to you mouse. Option players are zapping things. Ideally, you are short from above and can watch the battle from the mountaintop. EC The 2832 area on the EC is being tested. If this holds, we have a chance to move down. Beware of a rocket blastoff to the top though. When I think of the housing data in a general sense....no one is expecting the numbers to be USD positive. So all it needs to do is come in on target or reasonably close. If it fails miserably then the rocket may launch. DRT
Take this babble with many grains of salt... 13:57 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD Talk of a 1.2600-1.2850 DNT In Play] London, September 25. We have been informed that a 1.2600-1.2850 exotic Double No Touch option is in play, having reportedly been bought on Friday. EUR/USD last traded at/above 1.2850 on September 4. EUR/USD last traded at/below 1.2600 on July 26. A 1.2650-1.2850 DNT expires at today"s 10am EST NY cut (14:00GMT), alongside a fair size 1.2800 strike.
If you are trading EC, nothing wrong with taking off some at 2783. I suspect this may hold today, but who knows. Looking up the other way, you could place your stop above 2810 to lock in some profit. DRT