DRT Using RSI for what it was designed for can be painful, but I use it for divergence and trendline analysis on the RSI. It is very helpful in letting me know when trends are getting tired.
Hello DRT - having been an ardent follower of "The View Down River", I've been meaning to send out a "welcome back" after discovering your latest thread. But, on the other hand, the practical side of me keeps thinking a trader in your position has no need to hear the accolades from the camp of a wannabe - heheh. Nonetheless, I just feel better to throw out a public "thankyou" for your efforts, as I attempt to usurp any nuggets from your knowledge. I have a question concerning the equity curve, which appears to be heading to the Moon At the risk of sounding like a wet blanket (not my intention), its appearance reminds me of a dot com stock in Dec.,'99. Does not the parabolic rise give reason to ponder the simple law of physics, or ls this just representative of the beauty of compounding and experience? You've stated some of your risk management which surely appears based in prudence - I guess its just the vertical nature of the curve which would scare the hell out of me - lol! Thanks again for your thoughts, comments, charts, newswires, etc - best to ya ...
Mephisto, I can not say that I have not thought that same thought. If you look carefully at the curve you will see pullbacks. These represent those times when I let my risk go way beyond where it should have been. The comforting side of this for me is that there are hundereds of trades in there. I also had two of my best months ever during some of the toughest trading months this summer. I am sure I will have losing days and losing weeks. My goal is never to have a losing month as it signals a much larger issue. Thanks for reminding me of this as I need it from time to time. DRT
I have no bias when it comes to my trades from a "holding period" standpoint. I have held many traders for a few hours. Some through a couple sessions, etc. The key for me is not the holding period, but the acheivement of certain levels with the value curve. I don't care how short or long of a time it takes. That is up to the market. I have a feeling in the last quarter of this year, you will see some rapid price movement through the curves. I am trying to balance accurate posting with my trading style. If I try to be too informative of what I am doing, it affects my trading. This has happened before and my trading comes first before any need to post on this forum. My goal here is to give an overview of my thoughts and some key levels, etc. I will not have time to post every entry in a real time fashion but I will try to do this as much as possible. I really like to help traders with the 'big picture". I hope no one is making entries or exits based on my posts. They should be using their own methodology and not depending on anyone else. It is my hope that something we exchange here will spark that "ah ha" type of thing for each of us. DRT
I will get some updates in early tommorrow. Be very careful jumping on board the $ strength tonight. I see a possible test of the midrange or top of range could be in the works first. Take care. DRT
EURUSD We are still contained within our value range of 2830 on the North and 2580 on the South. With the midrange coming in around 2720. The market will break from these levels. Which way is the question? I would also not be surprised to see us head in a particular direction this week, only to reverse next week for the true direction. So be careful. It may be prudent for some to wait for the break before trading as it will likely be very volatile and choppy getting there. But then again, we may be range bound for a while. I see a good short entry up near 2710/2725 area with the latter being the best entry. If this level gives way, we may head up to the top of the range. If you get short here, target 2580. Use very tight risk control as price could travel thru the midrange quickly. EC Same as above, but our range boundaries come in at 2886 to the North and 2636 to the South. Midrange is 2776. I see a possible short entry at 2759/2766. Ideally a push up to 2766 area and an entry on a selling tail. Again, be very cautious here as a push through this area could see the top of the range being tested. So our theme is....we know the market will break from 2830 or 2580 area. We are currently watching a retest of the midrange. Since we have already moved below this and built limited value, our odds favor the midrange to hold and a test of the Southern border. However, we are cautious at the midrange level as a move through this area could once again test the top of the range. DRT