Drought Changes Informa Yield Estimate ( Friday 07/13/2012 ).

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kanellop, Jul 17, 2012.

  1. kanellop


    Hello to All.

    Exist the following News:

    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3865298c013882006ea5013d .


    Friday 07/13/2012

    Drought Changes Informa Yield Estimate

    USDA's World Ag Outlook Board wasn't the only widely-watched organization to respond to the drought of 2012 with lower estimates for corn and soybean production. Informa crop watchers did the same thing this week. The Memphis cadre noted that temperatures in late June were well above normal, intensifying to 10 degrees (F) above normal during the first week of July. And, even though we saw a pullback from those excruciating values this past week, temperatures are still above normal. And, as of mid-July, the outlook is for a continued below-average rainfall and above-normal temperature trend.
    With that as background, the Informa experts derived production estimates, with this setup: incorporating the stressful weather we have already had in July, and then assuming the central U.S. corn and soybean belt will have half its normal precipitationh and a temperature trend which averages 5 degrees F above normal over the rest of the month. (We all know what "assume" signifies, but considering the way things have been going, this is a good guess on parameters.) Informa also assumes near normal weather for August--and that would be an accomplishment the way this year has gone.

    Anyway, this is how it works out: corn production potential at the end of July, in this scenario, is pegged at 12.5 Billion bushels. That's 2.3 Billion less than the June WASDE projection of 14.8 Billion bu, which as we all know, featured the now-infamous 166 Bu/A yield. Informa's derived yield is now at 142.5 Bu/A--but also, harvested acres are projected to be 1.2 Million less than the USDA June estimate at 87.65 Million acres. The 142.5 Bu/A yield is, of course, 11 Bu/A below Informa's July 1 forecast.

    As for soybeans, the Informa derived production end of July is 3.0 Billion bushels, down 149 MIllion from the Informa July 1 forecast. This total features a 40 Bu/A yield and maintains the June USDA harvested area estimate of 75.3 Million acres.

    USDA's July WASDE report had corn production at 12.97 Billion bu and soybean output at 3.05 Billion bu.

    What a change. What. A. Change.


    Twitter @BAndersonDTN

    Posted at 3:20PM CDT 07/13/12 by Bryce Anderson


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  2. are you on drugs or something?