We get a 456K draw in crude inv. when analysts were expecting a 1000K build. Crude gets a small spike after the report but then sells off again. After that big of an unexpected draw in crude I would think that we would get a solid rally. Is there that much pessimism for the future demand for oil that all up moves in crude will be sold?? I have seen this happen a couple of times over the past months and it doesnt make sense to me. What am I missing??
Crude stocks at the delivery point in Cushing were up 2.4 mln bbls, so depends what way you look at it! Plus there's no demand at all, look at how the spreads have been weakening. Agreed it was just a short term play to use the figures as fodder for a quick gain. Ultimately the market's still bearish isn't it.
Aloha mate. If you trade oil come drop by my journal... i gave live trades calls yesterday on that move with preset targets that were point-perfect, so helped make a lot of people a lot of money. Ive also been posting charts everyday to show where the levels you need to watch for on charts are, and trade calls that have more than doubled capital since last monday.. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=134046&perpage=6&pagenumber=298
I cant believe this shit. Oil trading at $45. This doesnt make any damn sense. Oil markets are way overdone to the downside. Granted they were overdone to the upside at the middle of the year. But this is f'ing ridiculous.... slow steady grind down. At the middle of the year I was kicking myself for getting out of my oil long to soon. Now, I have been averaging in from oil at $75 and am kicking myself for getting in to soon. I think years from now we will look back these prices and consider it the opp. of a lifetime to buy oil at low prices. Imo, I dont see any way that these low prices are sustainable, barring a severe depression......... I believe supply crunch is around the corner as many oil companies are now reducing capex spending and putting new developments on the back burner since they are not profitable at these low oil prices. I believe these low prices are good for the short term consumer relief, but will be a nightmare 3 years out when supply wont be able to catch up with demand.
seriously, To me this is amazing, oil trades $44 level. There is something else going on here.... time will tell.
Every time OPEC cuts production, there's known excess capacity that traders can discount. The reason for the super spike was partly a fear of peak oil. Now, the market can discount each cut into the future. Second, with the talk of more fuel efficient vehicles coming out from automakers around the world, traders can discount lower oil demand in the future.