I understand you are bored... ...so next time I hope you won't feel the need to post in this thread. Thanks for your consideration...
Today's selloff ended (so far) in a mini-dragon: Height: 4 pts Failure: 2.5 pts (at the SMA) 3rd bottom: 4 pts The bounce was so far 6 points and is still in progress...
I estimate that in this bearmarket we have this pattern about 3 times a week. Since we didn't have one yesterday, the market doubled up, and we had 2 back to back: 1st one: Height was 8, Failure at 5, 3rd bottom 7, with only a 2 pts bounce. 2nd one: Height was 4, Failure at 2, 3rd bottom at 4, ended in a downtrend ending minirally. Now I could theorize that if one dragon's bounce is minimal, the next one's will give a full rally up to the Height at least...
5 days chart dragon failure still in progress: Since the Height is 32 pts and Failure was at 699, it indicates a 667 3rd bottom on the cash...
Pek, what do you consider to be the failure point for this newest dragon. What I am asking is: what price would SPX have to print to declare the pattern (and the price objective) invalid?
Well, generally the failure occurs around 50% of the Height. This time since the Height was 32, and the 2nd bottom was at 678, the Failure was expected around 678 + (32/2)= 694 The SPX overshot it quite a bit, but still it was I think below 70%. The best is if the failure occurs in the 40-60% zone. I would say if it reaches 80% of the Height, it won't fail at that price. Edit: We just hit 672.5 which is getting pretty close to the 667 predicted 3rd bottom
This was one of the best predictions. The SPX bottomed exactly where the pattern said it would, 666.79, then rallied back closing the day in a Doji. Here is the 5 days/15 mins chart: There is a chance that we have put in a temporary bottom here...
Small fish, good fish... Height: 4.5 pts Failure: at 2 pts (SMA line) 3rd bottom: 4.5 pts Bounce was only a small 2 pts, but the dragon was small too....