well, I just figured once I got out of school I would never have to deal with negative numbers again. To each his own, but I can think of a lot of other things I would rather be long than rates. Apparently, even zero is no floor.
Consider the following. The CB's know what the economic data are. They no longer deny outright "Open Market Operations" as in the fairly recent past. We are in unknown territory, truly, and therefore I think the can gets kicked (hate that term) down the road. We have ups and downs but by carefully navigating the markets and massively supporting the leaks in the dams we continue limping along. What if the IOER (Interest on Excess Reserves) goes NEUTRAL and then NEGATIVE as desperation ensues. There is an awful lot of money stashed at the FED getting risk free return which would have to find a home. Where would the bubble occur? That is the real question. A) 2nd coming of the stock market bubble ala 1999? B) Sovereign Bond Bubble---consider trillions flowing to buy high interest CB guaranteed EUROZONE Debt and secondary market Bonds? C) Best guess here? Crazy Times as always.
Soros says the bubble started back in the Eightys.. i tend to believe him.. unregulated banks.. printing money.. etc.. we are very close to all time highs percentage wise.. and when i look around i do not see prosperity..