when good news comes out, I am not fooled, but I think you probably will be so I cover my shorts and go long. When bad news comes out, I know it has nothing to do with the market, but I take my profits and go short because I know that's what you will do. The market is in very weak hands right now. Aint nobody but just you and me trading it. I've been long for years in my conservative account, and no news good or bad can make me buy more or sell. So you can't touch it, even if you wanted to. But if things stay the same economically, easy fed, low p/e, low rates, low inflation, low growth (as opposed to rapid growth) I will buy some more on a decent correction. But what's that got to do with trading? You can't guess where I will buy, so all you trade is the news, because that's the only thing moving the market until something fundamental changes.
The Euro is irreversible. -- Draghi Subprime is well contained. Titanic was unsinkable. Gotta add this:
The guy never follows through with anything he says, but THIS TIME "he was stern and resolute"! how can you not believe a guy who is stern and resolute???
ECB and US Fed reserve are now living on borrowed time. The game is over. ECB and US Fed reserve are becoming the 'london whale' of sovereign debt. When they want / have to unload all of it, it will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Right now all the talk the last few days is sort of stimulus in itself. They are telling the market what they want to hear, nothing else. I wish they would just leave it alone and let the system deleverage on its own, should have done this in 2008. In the long run it will make a stronger system instead of just delaying the inevitable.
Don't fight the FED (s) We could see 1400 in the spoos. This market WANTS to go up. We're in for some volatility though. As a Trader I appreciate that aspect. QE to infinity. The way I currently envision is the following: We are in a plane with enough gas to go 5000 nautical miles. We are over the ocean. We have passed the turnaround point. That is to say, if we turn around we WILL go down. So it's full speed ahead with some glimmer of hope that a small airstrip somewhere in the vast expanse of ocean will allow us to CRASH LAND without killing everyone on board. FAITH. That's what this and every market runs on. Take home. We are gonna zig, zag, and wag. But interest rates to zero and monetization, printing are not going away. The tough part is timing the purchase of tangibles during wicked bouts of deflation. Not an easy game.
When the tape says sell, u sell. When it says buy, u buy. Never trade on what u think or what u hear cause it is all noise. It seriously is that simple. We as traders just make it hard.
You are NOT smarter than the market. How many threads have to be started about how the market is irrationally going higher before you finally understand this? Let's make this real simple: it's an election year. Do you really expect the economy to tank in such a year? Yes, it did under Bush, but he was a drooling idiot. Exceptions prove the rule, remember?