Also, a better example to support his thesis is actually China. They may be hiding new cases today but can't hide if the epidemic is still raging. The fact that China's back in business indicates the virus' effects are not as dire as predicted. We are traders, we retail traders make $ only when our view is different than the market, so, if this guy is correct and we agree, it is a tradable event. In all fairness, isn't this what @dozu888 was saying all along.
I agree the Chineese have bought it under control and made it look almost like a nothing burger, but our markets dont seem to currently have the confidence that our governments will be able to contain it as quickly as the Chineese did. If that changes then the markets will rise. There will be some sort of rally as soon as the daily death rate in the US peaks and then starts to drop. But even in Italy the daily death rate is still going up. So who knows when the US will peak? And how much damage to the economy and jobs will be done in the meantime.
I just made a post about this. the Chinese market is driven by the party policy... the 'national team' has a huge influence... therefore once it reopened down 10% after the spring festival it's been going up straight only to be dragged down by the global market a bit now they are about 5% down from the pre-corona level.... it's now about on par with the estimated 5% GDP loss for the year... and I have written about the 5% figure extensively. now the US market, I just wrote about the shake up needed after the 2019 rise. and corona is here conveniently. this is a massive shake up operation.. notice how they control the media.... 24/7/360 bombardment just to make sure any weak hands who were in the money from the 2019 rise get shaken out.... after recent market actions... can you imagine who is left... right, only the real hard core bulls, and the blind buys from 401ks, from those who haven't changed their contribution allocations anyway. and again, notice why oil is not mentioned anymore? surely it was a big deal for a couple of days? this is how market cleanse the excess.... after a big run there will always be some lucky bastards dreaming about free virgins.... the bastard was in there for a quick buck, but found himself in surprise profit after the 2019 big run.... my boyz will not carry these bastards to heaven...these people must be kicked out before prices race higher. that's how you make sense of this whole thing.... bulls bears are not what drive the market.... it's the same group of guys doing this up down up down... collecting chips. stimulus is gone be $2t... already double the 5% worst case GDP drag.... so where does the SP 1/3 drop come from. them boyz are trying to wreck your nerve to give up the chips!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/ can anybody say 'down tick' ? actually why doesn't even matter... peaking is only a matter of time.
Even if the stimulus works it still going to take a few years to recover back to new all time highs. It is going to take people a few years to forget all this and for it to work itself out of the system.
Keep an eye on italy, there are have two days in row where the death rate has dipped, only to rise again: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
you only need to look at China to see how fast they recover... people are already going out in restaurants enjoying themselves again... once summer comes and no more corona people are gonna go out spend like mad again.