Downward Spiral: We will hit 12%+ Unemployment, Japanese Style Deflation & Crash

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ByLoSellHi, Dec 17, 2008.

  1. Let's see how close (or far I get):

    We will see 12% to 15% unemployment within 12 months, a 'Japanese Syndrome' whereby no monetary policy can stem deflation as cash is hoarded, AND the equity markets will fall another 12% to 28% within 4 months (from today's levels).
  2. W4rl0ck


    There's probably already 12-15% unemployment. The gubmint reporting just covers it up.

    The market prediction should be easy enough - still waiting on EWT wave 5.

    Have to say this isn't as prescient as your "darkest" prediction. :D

  3. spersky


    That is a pretty optimistic prediction IMHO.
  4. Japan is a more homogeneous culture than the USA. The Japanese may have been able to "keep it together" better and not revolt in the streets when things fell apart in the early-1990's. I don't believe you can say the same thing about the USA. :cool:
  5. MattF


    well, keep up the 500K/month job losses, and we'll soon effectively wipe out the past 4-5 years or so in less then 2 years.
  6. capmac


    New jobless claims drop slightly to 623,000

    Thursday February 12, 2:48 pm ET

    By Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer

    New jobless claims dip to 623,000; continuing claims remain at record level over 4.8 million

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- Nearly 5 million Americans continued to draw jobless benefits late last month, and new requests again exceeded 600,000 as companies lay off scores of workers amid a deepening recession.

    In slightly better economic news, retail sales rose unexpectedly in January, reversing six months of decline and following a dismal holiday season. But analysts said the jump was unlikely to last, partly because of the weak job market.

    The Labor Department said Thursday that the number of initial jobless benefit claims dropped to a seasonally-adjusted 623,000, from an upwardly revised figure of 631,000 the previous week. The latest tally still was above analysts' expectations of 610,000 claims.
  7. we could be at the tail end of this shallow recession. numbers are improving. 13 month recession.
  8. Ah, yes, turder, you're winning this argument so far.

    Imbecilis Supremis. That is your genus and species.