**** no financial advice, only for entertainment purpose **** I thought it was a very high probability that bitcoin will hit $100k before eoy 2024 I'm not exiting the mstr calls position until next half of next year 2025 so that the profits hopefully intact will be long term rate I think $500/sh mstr by opex is possible but also always have to wonder how much ATM selling is mstr doing, they did $4.6B of selling last week, crazy mstr did not crash There's supposed to be a possible gamma squeeze due to the too many call options in the money, but I'm not an options expert max pain is $395 so mstr can also crash hard if bitcoin can stay above $95k until Friday, for sure I think mstr over $500/share https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/bitcoin-price-thread.315402/page-610#post-6022326 My current position is risk-capital $160k, part of a 2-bet parlay, collect over $1M of profits next year, buy 1000 shares of mstr to hold for 5-10 years until it's worth $10M $160k in mstr call options --> close to Cash, collect as much fiat as possible, --> 1000 mstr shares --> $10M worth of mstr stock after year 2030 * stock split of 10 to 1 already occurred so all figures are split adjusted as necessary
If you do 1 trade every 4 years this trade so far is returning about 142k per year. However, with 160k you would have returned 294% with MSTY, or 630k in the last 12 months.
Congrats Mr Ted, mstr is showing over $500/sh and it's not Friday, yet, but we do not know if it's going to hold until market opens as long as bitcoin stays up over $97,000 right now...
mstr under $500 again, risky short term.... the mstr convertible debt buyers might be shorting the shares to hedge and also mstr could be selling billions of $ worth of shares to buy bitcoin this weekend again, might be targeting to push bitcoin above $100k over the weekend, good for next week, but could hurt mstr share price this week
What I know: Pnl: $-73,240 MSTR price: $136.20 Date posted: Sept.17 Expiry date: July18 2025 Cost: $160k What I don't know: # of contracts/# of contracts post split Price of calls/price of calls post split Strike price/strike price post split I have to backwards engineer the amount of calls, at what strike, and what price gave you a $-73,240 pnl back on Sep17, for the July18 expiry, at a $160k cost while MSTR was $136.20....and will have to guess what the elevated IV was at the time. I assume you had 1 pre split contract and have 10 now. So the best I can get to is: 10 contracts @ 350 strike for $160 with an IV of 265% = $-74,950 pnl back on Sep17 with MSTR price at $136.20 If this is the case then the position now has a PnL of $-56,966 with the current IV of 96% How'd I do?
I concur it is possible. Just using a flat average for some popular high yield dividends. You guys seriously underestimate the power of dividends...especially high yield dividends...always too focused on capital. You should look at capital as your soldiers and accept that you may lose some in the battle. Like that C64 game, you start with 20k soldiers, and lose 8k of them while raiding the castle, but the conquered land yields 6k annually, so you will rebuild.
good efforts, waxy, but you're not close, the position is not at a loss, which should help you imo, the position will be in profits of $1M+ by end of March or beginning of April, so don't strain your brain cells too much as I'll post an update on ET when it happens Below might be a better starting point for you pre-split? https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...r-asymmetric-risk-reward.379915/#post-5981373