Most options are fairly priced (MM are not stupid) and most holders will not make money. However, tails are usually mispriced especially in special situations so you need to search for special situations, estimate the outcome and calculate the probability (they are not IV). Also, like venture investing, only a small percentage of options will have huge payouts and you need to spread your bets. Good luck.
It is absurd. Google Kelly criteria. If you are looking for home run bets, IMHO, 3-6 months is too short.
Options I trade but ONLY sell puts, I do well with those , don't make much but haven't lost so I like sell puts and when I'm assigned the position I never mind it since I trade the most very popular etfs that of course go up in times like these. Futures I do not touch. Back to futures. New this guy who was trading futures some years ago, he was doing extremely well ...weeks went by and I glimpsed at his account. He had around 150k ...some weeks went by again and I noticed he was down huge, they ended up losing all those gains and I believe stopped taking that risk ever again. I still see him but haven't asked if he got back into the markets since then. I take risk and have lost but never enough risk to lose an entire portfolio. I do take on more risk now since I have my retirement portfolio sitting there making free money as markets rally every single day so in my trading portfolio I put on some dumb risk.
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