I thought you left ET after the love affair with Nine_Ender. She got you the same way they get every man, "Hold my purse" ------------------------------------------ >>>>>> warning of another Black Swan that came out of nowhere and nobody could have foretold . . . <<<<<< The NOBODY part is incorrect, but the developing pattern itself is open to interpretation when it is viewed on MONTHLY, monthly being the key timeframe here due to the vast expanse of the rising TREND from the British Stock Prices aka 1700s. If you don't have the data I can provide it I was only 4 days old when I outlined the TOP (am currently a mere 1 year 7 months old) page 1, the first 2 posts are adequate ... in present time I need to make an addition to that assessment and will do so soon. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=179613&highlight=lambda
Reviewing the Dow Jones TOP on Daily and Monthly .... Daily ... TOP alert Defcon 3 watch few days before May 2 TOP. Then 60-min. analysis nailed the actual TOP perfectly. Daily now looks like this with the exact same analysis as before ... As everyone ought to clearly see, if one takes away Wave Analysis, there is not a single trendline broken nor any important low taken out. And Dow Theory has NO violation yet. So, on this basis there is NO TOP that can be called. Only if the dashed line marked as "b" is taken out, do we have high good odds that a Top is in. So it is Wave Analysis that provides the far superior and vastly exterior view of the whole affair - but Wave Analysis is fraught with peril, right? It surely is, and if you consider that Prechter can't time worth a damn and that he has the audacity to name Waves according to Ralph Nelson Elliott, it is even more bizarre to think that the market cares about what he has named the waves. Yet, the most fundamental rules of Wave Analysis still work well and it is from there that ONE must walk the road alone and build therefrom. That's why I said it is a lonely road. Being wrong? Fck, that's an occupational hazard. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Waves are fractals - as one increases the timframe they become easier to spot, as long as there is sufficient DATA. The Dow Jones has the data and to me it has always been THE barometer. The Transports are important, less now than back then, but the Industrials are the King. On the YEARLY it is clearly obvious the magnificent 5 waves up from THE GREAT DEPRESSION LOW of 1932. As thou canst see all Fibonacci levels will be respected - why because the numericals calculations are deeply embedded in the implant within the HERD's subconscious mind, the mind that drives them as a collective - as opposed to the analytical mind which is the territory of INDIVIDUALITY and creative powers. When 5 waves are over, all Hell breaks loose. That's just the way it is, if you don't heed it you neither live nor win. To the dead and broke one there is NO MESSAGE of greater import than just this one fact, "progress and regress occur in a 5-3 wave. Its the 3-wave structure that confounds folk, but not the dead one. The dead one can and has confidence to know how a triangle might evolve out of a "3" - but confidence is itself a 5-wave rise, so the dead one is perhaps only in the early stages of Wave 1 up - an infant so to speak. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Therefore, based on the yearly chart of the Dow Jones shown in previous post, the trillion dollar question is ... How will the fckup aka the corrective wave evolve? Will it be a straight down a-b-c or will it be a triangle? Ahahaha, if its just a correction, then by definition, the larger TREND is still UP and therefore when the correction is over, the bullmarket continues. The dead one is of this opinion. If the dead one is wrong by one major wave, then ET poster, GrandSuperCycle has chosen his name aptly, for Armaggedon would be underway. More on this as time progresses and the dead one gives it more thought.
So when looking at patterns and topping formations, megaphones et al, these are long drawn out slow processes that need time to develop on the long-term frames. Ditto for the patterns known as Head and Shoulders, Double-Top etc. And this is why WAVE ANALYSIS flogs them all - it reveals the TOP months and years before any discernible pattern appears. The patterns that do appear, so slowly only allow slowpokes and latecomers to the party wayyyyy after the fact. The correct stance is SHORT from the 2007 TOP and KNOW that any countertrend move is a bear rally - and know this with relative certainty although CERTAINTY is a luxury that only dirtbags can afford. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
CALLED arrival in the Target Box is now accomplished. DEFCON 3 alert status for SHORT preparation is now on. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOEXOBx9eVc
sorry, forgot the chart ... Breaking the last black trendline (thick) will see me SHORT instantly. Still flat EurUsd as I have been for days and days. and although my eyes are open they might just as well be closed http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mb3iPP-tHdA for I'll be damned if I can figure out the current wave count - need a few more bars although suspect that a correction will only be a wave 4 and that we go higher into the Target Box. Just guessing until I get Price's code - I already tried bah ram you but my dark mane was showing so they told me to fck off. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFWiqhMJzvs Uploaded with ImageShack.us -------------------------------
HUGE MISS!!!!! Chicago PMI Index at 56.6 in May Vs. 67.6 in April (story developing) Between todays housing numbers and PMI number just out moments ago bulls are lucky for the latest rumors out of Greece.... Over the past few weeks economical numbers coming out have been down right nasty, between the miss on GDP last week and todays housing numbers seems like Bubble ben bernanke is do to release QE3 sometime in the next week or so!