comparing with crash '87.... second falls started in around late '89. depending on markets, so 2 years after the crash. Nikkei 1/1/90, ASX oct 89, FTSE sep 89, hkse may 89... SP strong but US still had recession. We are about that time right now. Considering that real recession strikes on average 2 years after initial burst.... US should do better than others as it is way ahead in deleveraging. Which one will be equivalent of Nikkei is a 1M question. US nope. Largest hype china is already way down from the top. Second tier emerging markets BRA, India, Thai etc seem good candidates on the surface.
Money is flooding the market from all over. Japan going crazy producing Yen. All of this money will be on the sidelines looking for a place to go....and that would be equities, not bonds, not commodities which are way overpriced. Shorts beware. We'll need some sort of crisis to precipitate the next big move down.
Attaway DB you've attracted a bunch of newbies to the thread! Ayyyyyy. This is a shore sign of eminent closure. I'm upset about that. Listen Good News my review of the EELS has been posted on the net! 5 / 5 EELS JAM NYC! Posted 09/27/2010 by stonedinvestor Location: NYC The EELS took to the stage looking like a cross between a revival country band, a folk tripy band and most importantly the Blues Brothers or ZZ top. A Very fashionable band. e's voice is gravel magic... No less than 8 guitars are played by e and each one well. the EELS have become a guitar hero band, the fingerwork by everyone is just so good. The NYC cover of HOT CHILD IN THE CITY was the best they have ever done. They slowed parts of the song down to a crawl while e got a drink and dabbed his beard and then they brought that crazy hook jam in- I didn't even know the song had this relentless beat. The EELS have enough songs now to put on a really great show. I would not hesitate to see them again. EELS are a band to watch.~ stoney Favorite moment: Arriving 5 minutes before the start! All in the timing.
Dow Jones daily ... see prev. post chart for comparison .... Dow rallied to the underside of the broken uptrendline, but here is what I'm going to do. Since we did get a higher close I'm going to move the trendline to cover the Oct 4 low. In doing so we have 2 items to watch (1) the blue trendline is cracking. As stated yesterday it has not yet broken but it does look like it will give way. But we need proof from Price. (2) If the modified trendline breaks decisively, that's it. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
DB seem to be one of these nicely talking people, like priest or something, driving sheep over the cliff with a smile stopped out, spent so far 15% of my budget for this particular short idea. Will continue to take short signals and increase size as shorts now ready to admit defeat which is where reversals occur.
Now that bothers me more than you'll ever know. Unanimously the sentiment here has been that if anyone at ET traded this way, they'd be broke. Haven't you read the thread? Almost everyone has made it clear that they are not interested in my way. Why didn't you at least come out and say you were taking the plays? Before you commit further to shorting can you wait till we get a solid downside bar or more that takes out the 1H closing low of October 4th?
Hey DB if you like I can trawl through this mess of a thread and find my eloquent piece that predicted all the moves of the market up until this point. We are now in that race for performance that I warned you about. However never fear we are closing in on that 11,200 level which I feel we will flat line at. I am continuing to sell high beta names and this morning I let loose my CAVM. That's another loss for you DB! Now I want to sort of explain to you what life could be like for you I have purchased a new mattress & boxspring with the $2,700 some odd dollars I have skimmed off this trade from $27.00 - $29.70. Some may argue that I should of stuck it out looking for those huge returns I have become famous for but market dynamics here have filed me with caution heading into earning's season. Anyway me and the Mrs. have been sleeping terrible for a long while. Our old mattress was 15+ years old. Due to this trade and bet against you DB, I now have an amazing new non spring mattress! The back feels better this morning and I awoke to smoke and take on the day! I encourage investors to do this-- to take profits and actually buy something not just to spur the economy but to reward yourself for taking the risk. I also ordered two pairs of sneakers! So I'll be sleeping tight and walking pretty thank's to Cavium Networks, I just wish you had turned your charts upside down DB and seen the light... you could be living large too. Think about it. ~stoney