Dow 60-min. updated. See Price hugging the trendline? Hehehehe, he knows its there. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Something important I forgot to mention ..... (note: its difficult for the HERD to look ahead, I understand, but try to do it at least this once - if you have difficulty doing this, just picture bright green grasses and herbs ahead and NO LIONS and you'll be OK. ) look again at the dow 60-min. chart in previous post - see the grey and green moving average lines? Those are the 144 and 200 smas respectively. See how the 144 is curling downward like its going to cross? OK, now dig this .... if Dow Jones rallies, he will be running into an aborning 144 x 200, a fckin recipe for disaster. This is foretelling in advance that the rally, if any, will fail and that it will be an excellent short
I answered this already by saying, "My dollars and Yen will become golden paper" ..... The magnificent YEN and yours truly story around year 2007, sheer poetry for this newbie. re:Yen and even though I was only learning and new to the markets, the monthly chart became my home for real life position holding (I'm here to learn realtime and will take as long as it takes) When I look back, how I wish I was like one of those fellows with 40 years experience in the markets - why? because I'd have gotten short USDJPY like somewhere @ 330. We are now @ 84. So the profit would be 330-84 = dig? Hey, maybe next lifetime I'll get a head start. So back to the monthly USDJPY (and yes I looked at EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, CADJPY, SGDJPY) continued ......
continued from prev. post ..... I'm showing the USDJPY (Dollar/Yen)chart in quarterly to be able to show all the data in one view, but the reality is that the analysis was done on monthly. Uploaded with ImageShack.us See the triangle in thick blue lines? That's what I took a chance with as Price approached the "B" point - it was obvious by then it was a triangle and coming up against resistance @ fib 23.6%. The Macd was showing a huge drop in momentum as point "B" was being reached. So I switched to weekly and daily for timing.
The whole idea with the "B" was that a massive decline was going to occur in the killer wave known as "C" - now, even if my wave numbering was wrong and the triangle was a wave 4 it wouldn't change a thing in terms of the expected drop because a "C" wave or a 5th wave would give me the same result. And in currencies, the 5th wave is generally the powerhouse extension. So I started switching to Yen over a period of months .. The rest is HISTORY. Do you see in the news now in 2010 how the YEN is fckin everyone up? (and if you check my posts since I came to ET in October 2009, the yen and $ are pretty much what I talk about constantly) Not me, it ain't. We be friends, dear friends, till we gots to part company.
detour completed, now placing thread back on track ..... Dow Jones Thread SHORT Call continues unabated and unabashed!
Here's the funny thing. Since early 2009 most of the HERD has been either not participating in the market ( eg by holding large cash positions ) or somewhat limiting their investments ( eg avoiding risk to a greater degree then normal ). You are actually part of the HERD by predicting market drops, we hear these predictions all the time since early 2009. The smart money realized this market was a bull market and has participated since early 2009. Anyone who listened to this nonstop bearish sentiment missed out on returns of at least 40-50%. I predict the market will be at today's level or higher in April 2011. So if you are going with the HERD mentality and shorting you're likely not going to do that well in that scenario. Sorry to break it to you there is nothing maverick at all predicting a market drop; CNBC has been talking about "double dip" every month for what seems like forever. I do admit eventually every market can correct at some point so if you keep posting this you will eventually appear to hit something. But how much time and opportunity will pass you by while you wait ? So what we'll do is see where we are in spring 2011. If the market is not hugely down well that makes your whole premise totally wrong, and I expect you'll stop reiterating these theories. If you are even remotely right, I'll be shorting risky companies on the way down, the ones with bad balance sheets ( ie companies someone like Captain Obvious would recommend ).