"...We must confess that we are puzzled as to why the S&P 500 hasn't already seen another big downleg, as technically the index has looked like it was dangling on the edge of a renewed selloff for over a week, with bond yields leading the way. The index had failed to keep above its 200-day moving average and has again broken below its 50-day moving average?with no immediately visible support below._ There is also the obvious de-coupling from the bond market?and while there are concerns that the latest spurt in bond prices has come too far, too fast and bonds are beginning to look like a very crowded trade, there is as yet no convincing economic data that inflationists can hang their hat on..." Source Japaninvestor.com 1,061.75 is 50% of July's trading range, below it is 81 & 100 SMAs magnets. http://www.dormantrading.com/Trader...;SMA(200);SMA(260);SMA(400);SMA(100);SMA(81);
Dow Jones Thread Short Call on DAILY timeframe continues unabated. ---------------------- caveat about my 60-min. Dow chart 3 posts back with the expected rally showing at right of chart .... if Dow goes even a hair below August 20 low, the 60-min. rally expectation is canceled and I'll have to re-think. ------------------------ none of the above interferes with the daily timeframe which is an unequivocal continuing shorty.
-------------------------------------------- yep, canceled. Will re-think tomorrow. Skunker 'n a drunk right now. The 60-min call was canceled with caveat before the market opened, but it still counts as a BAD CALL in my book because the call was made a few days ago. Even though drunk, I'll show you exactly why the expected chart rally is canceled .... See chart below for how I expectd yesterday's clear-cut 3-legged down move to be a "2" as shown on chart. So as per my caveat, if the Aug 20 low is taken out, the wave 2 is eliminated because it cannot retrace > 100% of wave 1. Dig? So, fck it, I'll review tomorrow. But on Thread Call Daily timeframe its a fckin snooze continuation shorty my apologies for being drunk and perhaps incoherent. the canceled chart is shown below ... I've left it as-is from yesterday so its easier to see the logic ........ Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Vix Q: What's the difference between an investment banker and a pigeon? A: A pigeon can still put a deposit on a Ferrari. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Dow Jones Thread SHORT CALL continues unabated and unabashed (still thought-ing about the 60-min. pattern by not thinking about it - the one thing I learned from Prechter that was fckin awesome was just this ... "if you don't see it instantly, don't figure-figure, just walk away"
Nasdaq composite daily is real close to the July low. On 60-min. Nasdaq, Gann's 144 sma has just crossed the 200 sma to the downside for the first time since August 2. On the daily, its a race between Dow and S&P500 for a 144 x 200 - no cross yet, perhaps a few days away, but seems inevitable. When was the last upside cross? .... 1 yr ago.
Markets are closed. see Dow Jones 60-min. chart ..... 2 sets of parallel channels Dow nicely respecting Fibonacci levels, now just a tad above 61.8% retracement support. If a rally occurs it will be so obvious with the trendlines of the channel shown and the fib levels acting as resistance. The Daily timeframe thread call is STAY SHORT regardless what occurs on the 60-min. frame. But it would be interesting if we did get a 60-min. rally to complete my DAILY chart Diamond reversal pattern. Now that would be slcik. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
As I said, if there is a rally on 60-min., it could complete my POSSIBLE Diamond Reversal Pattern. This is just conjecture and its something that the HERD is not allowed to do or tolerate. Dow daily chart below showing the possible Diamond and the rally that must occur for this pattern to even have a chance of working. Then the pattern has to totally breakdown as shown. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
----------------------- adding these now XLF (S&P financial Select spdr:ETF), XHB (S&P Homebuilders:ETF), Japan's Nikkei Korea Index HGX (Philly Housing Sector) not yet but just a hair away