You should know this first- Crocs ( CROX - news - people ): 52-week high of $14.00. The producer of plastic clogs forecast third-quarter net income of $0.22 a share, which exceeds average analyst estimates of $0.15 a share, helping shares of the underlying stock higher. The firm posted second-quarter earnings of $0.37 a share after the closing bell yesterday, which was substantially higher than the average consensus view for its earnings of $0.22 a share. Some options traders initiated near-term bullish bets on the shoe maker by buying calls and selling puts in the August contract. It looks like investors sold approximately 1,000 put options at the August $12 strike for an average premium of $0.14 each. These puts may have originally been purchased to hedge an earnings disappointment. Bulls hoping shares will continue to appreciate picked up about 1,000 now in-the-money calls at the August $13 strike for an average premium of $0.72 a-pop. Call buyers make money if CROX shares trade above the average breakeven price of $13.72 through August expiration. Finally, it looks like other investors expect Crocsâ shares to go no higher than $14.00 by expiration day. Roughly 1,500 calls were sold at the August $14 strike for an average premium of $0.25 apiece. Traders could be closing out previously established long call positions, or may be selling into the rally to pocket inflated premium on out-of-the-money calls. If the latter is true, call sellers keep the full $0.25 premium per contract as long as the price of the underlying stock fails to rally above $14.00 at expiration. Post-earnings the overall reading of options implied volatility on CROX plunged 28.1% to 52.26%. >> Held to $14 until options ex?? Or convincing break up from $13.72 which attracts more buying? It's a win win DB....Then what?~si
Actually between 16.84 and 18.4 is a possible fibo target area ... IF she survives the current trendline break and can rally. So this is a wait and see.
Thanks for the info. Will continue tomorrow. MY prelim. thoughts on CROX are a few posts up. Will review tomorrow and see if there's anything to add. I'm working strictly the daily timeframe. See you manana
Did I mention they are using a new substance for the shoes which you can't tell by the fit but which LOWERS cost? I guess I should add First, our revenue growth was broad bases, all markets and all sales channels reflecting the renewed strength of the brand globally! Second, the performance of our customer direct channel reflects solid growth in both â both through expansion and same store comp sales. As an example, same store comp sales for Q2 in the U.S. market was 8%. Third, our operating margins in all regions reflect the efforts of our very talented global operations team to evolve our business model while continuing to develop our unique in-season auto replenishment system. And fourth, our SG&A cost aligned to our business model. We increased our marketing spend in the quarter by $7 million to $15.5 million to drive brand awareness, new product introductions and channel sales with our key wholesale customers globally. We are striving to develop a balanced business globally and are working to minimize the seasonality of our product portfolio. Revenue increased by 31% to $228 million over an adjusted revenue of $174 million recorded in the second quarter of 2009, which excludes $23.7 million in previously impaired product sales reported last year at this time. Our international sales accounted for 61% of total revenue and we continue to believe this is a key strategic strength for Crocs. We are encouraged with the development of the BRIC and Middle East markets. We are very pleased with the resurgence of our wholesale business channel. We have invested significant management time and efforts to methodically rebuild our wholesale business, especially in the U.S. market. Sales of Crocs products with our major retails partners and department stores, family channels, sporting goods, and with our independents are all up consistently through Q2 and into early Q3. We hear customers are returning to retailers actively looking for the brand. Over the past two years, we have seen significant diversification of our product portfolio and collection, all building on our core design fundamentals of comfort, casual fun and colorful. Today, we have over 250 models of shoes across a diverse range of sales channels. While our core products are still up 21% of our overall sales, we continue to bring relevant and exciting new products to market. Which brings me to my kid-- I scoffed at the Crocs when he had a Yankee pair they seemed flimsy, but he's got a really cool looking shark pair now with the face of a shark and see the possibilities here are pretty endless. You know fads are real interesting in investing. I can remember buying an golf swing indoor pre IPO thingy that wiped me out and an in line skating stock or two! Well, here time is our friend. Crox has peaked fallen and comeback as a stable shoe for kids... they still like em, costs are under control now and growth in the international and on the wqeb is strong. Not a lot of storefronts a young retail idea still. Similar in many ways to Under Armour which I recentltly purchased as well.~si
Now DB by geographic region. Sales in the Americas rose 23% to $104.8 million from $85.85 million. Asia sale increased 11% to $88.6 million compared to $80 million and sales in Europe increased 7% to $34.6 million versus $32.2 million a year ago. For Q2 2010, 61% of our sales came from outside the United States. Each of these are in the MILLIONS DB- this is better than most semi conductor companies. 70% of our second half wholesale business is pre-booked.~si
DB I know you know times are tough. But what's great is as kids need some shoes this is an affordable luxury for the youngster don't you think? How nice to have this many sales and be able to RAISE prices in such an environment and STILL be a damn cheap pair of shoes.... Our average selling price for the second quarter 2010 increased 12%, or $1.96 to $17.76 from $15.80 one year ago. Yea under $20 bucks... hello Brazil! Did I mention the secret work your calf's while you walk shoe to be unveiled in 2011! If you wanted to be nit picky all you can say bad about Crox is their margins can't possibly be as high next qtr and there was for the second quarter, an effective tax rate was 17% versus guidance of 30%. The lower tax rate resulted in a $0.06 per diluted share favorable impact versus guidance.... Of course most folks won't dig for that! It looks like a huge beat and that's the way I like it! Shoe stocks are in fashion!!! DB what you got again? A Daily Butterfly Suture With A Hammer??? ADBS w/H? Do hammers sometimes miss nails? And hit thumbs.... ~stoney
http://www.dormantrading.com/Trader...;SMA(20);SMA(200);SMA(260);SMA(400);SMA(100); Another test of 50 from below this time. It was rejected, so that is good news for sellers. Quite important time now IMO as further rejection of 50 average ought to provide enough evidence to increase likelihood of 100 average re-test. I do have a short position on, not a substantial one, my reverse order is @ 1130 ES x2 size.
Taking your last 3 posts, that's some power info there, Stoney. Thanks. Will need to read it again. Re: hammers and nails ... "It take many nails to build crib but one screw to fill it" Here's my take on CROX: Close out the LONG right away = take full profits and go to sidelines