Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

Went to 70% long, from 90%.

 

I always find these statistics amusing and quite pathetic.


Cashin also noted an interesting correlation between Congress and the stock market:

“[On Friday,] Congress goes into recess and there’s a study that shows since 1897 to 2004, there’s an annualized gain of 5.3 percent when there’s no Congress in session and an annualized rate of gain of less than 0.5 of a percent when Congress is in session,” he said.

“So we get them to stop helping us, we’ll be fine.”

 

3:17pm


Volume is pathetic

SPY Volume: 111,168,938
Avg Vol (3m): 279,694,000

QQQQ Volume: 32,537,313
Avg Vol (3m): 105,978,000

DIA Volume: 5,211,811
Avg Vol (3m): 14,246,500

IWM Volume: 28,813,723
Avg Vol (3m): 84,823,900


I know there is 40 mins left of trading but these volumes are just sad.

 

Oh man, I got lucky reducing my long exposure yesterday.

 

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the daily chart 61.8% fib is shown in blue on the very same 60-min. chart. Its even more pronounced now since Dow has been dancing on it for some time now.

If that support breaks, its a lion ambush. Be careful, stay alert, next post will tell you exactly why you should be extra cautious now.




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Caution ..... re: Dow and S&P500 HERD collective sentiment analysis flashes red alert

BEAR looks like he's duplicating the April 26 top by fckin with the HERD. The HERD as you know is the general public. By definition they are dumb as they can only react; creativity is almost nil. Its always a good idea to study and watch their movements and emotion AT SUSPECTED IMPORTANT turns. Why? Because they BE always wrong at such turns. But a wandering lion can consider himself lucky to have stumbled into ET, for as I've said in Baron's Feedback forum, the ET HERD is dumber and therefore gives off better = quicker signals.

The lion, of course can be wrong. That don't stop him from taking the shot. Its a question of favorable odds, not guarantees. But the dumbest lion of all is yours truly for talking to the HERD in the first place.


Nothing personal guys; its just the way it is.

The HERD is duplicating the mental sentiment that it manifested at the recent April 26 top, i.e. a surge in excitement into April 15 and then a diverging excitement level in the later higher Price top April 26 . The CRASH then followed. Remember?

You clowns are doing the same thing now. Excitement high on July 27 and then diverging excitement at higher Price high on Aug 4.

Just a thought guys.

 

are you saying the herd is less bullish at the exact top than the week before? i don't know if it is true or not but it does not make sense. how could the herd foresee the slaughter?

 

I wish I could find a broker who pays on such generalities!!

 

I bought da dip and went back to 90% long.

 

I am withdrawing support for the OP's call, sorry Amigo, but you want to be in minority anyway

Just looking at weekly MA magnets & how price retested 100 average, closed above 50 & now 20 points to retest of Longer period averages currently around 1173 & 1210 ES. That's a rather obvious set-up, quite simply there is no failure in price & stocks are expected to "naturally" go up rather than down.

http://www.dormantrading.com/Trader...0);SMA(260);SMA(400);SMA(100);MACD;&type=LINE