If you had a crystal ball that told you the Dow would be at 100,000 in 2050, how would you trade the overall market for max gains?
We'll be lucky if we don't hit Dow 100,000 by 2015. How would I trade that? Get my money out of the USA and move to Asia.
I'm not sure how to interpret this. If a crystal ball said the Dow would be 9x it's current value in 40 years, you would take all your money out of stocks (immediately?) and move to Asia? Or, you think this could happen in the next 5 years?
No, just goofing. If we see Dow 100K relatively soon, it will be because of hyperinflation and currency destruction. Nobody invested in the Dow will escape bankruptcy... so better to have your money AND YOUR ASS out of the USofA. For the Dow to reach 100,000 in 2050 would be a return of 5.59%. Inflation alone will account for that.
I see! Would you consider a 40 year period to be relatively short, thus indicating hyperinflation and currency destruction? Hmm...how did you come up with 5.59%?
1. Our actual inflation rate for the last 40 years has likely been 6-8%. Government lies about the inflation rate to mask their misdeeds. Another 40 years of 5.6% inflation would be a relative blessing. We would likely all suffer significantly, but it wouldn't be catastrophic. 2. 5.59% comes from 12,000 Present Value, 100,000 Future Value, 39 years, solve for "rate"... from my 20 year-old HP BA II calculator. Wonder what the "real" inflation rate has been over the years? When the Toyota Land Cruiser first came out 1970(?), they were $2,795. I remember because I considered buying one. Today, they are $67,370. That's an 8.28% average annual increase over 40 years. Some of that is improvement. MOST is merely inflation and buying power destruction.