well, im a bear and THINK we should be much lower than we are. but market seems to go up now regardless of bad news. dumb stock jockeys on cnbc have led viewers to believe that horrible news is GREAT as it signals bottom. if tomorrow were -100k jobs it'll just be "ok, no biggie we were expecting down 50, so down 100 not too bad". rally!!! number needs to be really really bad for a big selloff imo.
I agree with you. There is too much optimism for the Dow to be at 12,600 and S&P at 1370. Tuesday's rally really meant nothing for me, as there was no underlying economical reason behind it, other than ISM slightly improving. With all the economic conditions (CPI high, credit conditions still tight) and being in a technical trading range with a double top (and possible triple), it is looking bearish to me. I'm thinking it'll be more like if we do -90,000 or worse we'll sell off at least 100 points at the open. Unchanged or not effected if -40,000 to -90,000 and rally if better than -40,000 or adding jobs.
I can't see anything causing this market to sell off. All the worst case scenarios are out there and have been shaken off. The only thing I could see causing a sell off is if JPM starts looking around for a bailout. The rest of the banks are already expected to fail so that would be a buying opp. The daily and 30 minute charts look like they are pointing up and ready to skyrocket. If there were no such things as fundamentals there would be 100% chance of huge up move. Since some money mangers do pay attention there is only a 90% chance of an up move. Traders rule the markets based on technicals... CNBC tries to explain moves based on news so that retail doesn't get scared off.
SPX is forming a bull flag and the 50 day moving average is turning up. What does that tell you? Technical Analysis says: Bullish move more likely. Now you can keep shorting thinking this a bear market and keep getting your ass handed down to you ...