I was wondering what happened to thomas lee, I didn't hear him on cnbc for a few weeks and here he is today, "Wall Street's record run far from over" Earnings could drop off 82% and inflation could surge, corporate profits could collapse and this guy would still be bullish... Thomas Lee: Wall Street's record run far from over Matthew J. Belvedere | @Matt_Belvedere 2 Hours AgoCNBC.com Longtime stock market bull Thomas Lee said Tuesday he sees the S&P 500 adding another 10 percent before the end of the year. (Tweet this) The index on Monday scored its third straight record—closing at 2,129 and bringing year-to-date gains to 3.4 percent. Lee predicts 2,325 for the S&P by the end of 2015. "In some ways, that's a catch-up because Europe has done great this year," he said. "Japan has done great." The Dow Jones industrial average joined the broader market with its own all-time high finish, while the Nasdaq composite closed about 20 points away from a record. As of Monday's close, the Dow was up nearly 2.7 percent for 2015, while the Nasdaq was up 7.2 percent. Read MoreWhy record highs have one mega-bull worried "The U.S. consumer is still one of the most important engines for growth," Lee said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "They're showing signs of employment life, not necessarily spending life yet," he added. "But once that turns, especially we're seeing that in housing, I think the focus comes back to the U.S., and there's a nice earnings story." In the latest earnings season, in which expectations were dim, many domestic companies posted high single-digit growth, he said, noting they benefited from lower oil prices. On the economic front, "good news is good news because everybody is expecting bad news," Lee said. "I'd say this is still the least-loved six-year rally in history." "The market is usually good at predicting changes in [economic] trend," he continued. "I think the market is telling us the cadence in the next couple of quarters is going to be quite good." Another question mark for investors has been the dire debt situation in Greece. Government officials there insisted Tuesday a deal was imminent with international lenders over reforms as a condition for more bailout money. Read MoreGreece 'in crisis' as officials insist deal is near "The good news is the markets don't think there's a systemic risk" from Greece, Lee said. The problems facing Athens have been "well telegraphed." Lee launched his own boutique equity research firm, Fundstrat Global Advisors last year, after leaving JPMorgan Chase as chief equity strategist.
So lets take the PE ratio of the s$p and apply it to the DOW, you get dow 21,700... so thats all we need to do is apply this simple math formula and like magic the dow should be trading at 21,700......wow this is getting better and better by the day....I say forget about all these headlines, what they should do is just open the markets up 20% higher and call it a year...why are we wasting our time with these predictions when we all know dow 20,000 will be here by fall and 22,000 by early 2016...lets just prop up the markets a few thousand points and be done with it.....everyone can go on their hampton vacation and relax for the whole summer and not have to worry about anything because we all know this market is risk free.... This simple math points to Dow 21,700: Analyst The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit yet another all-time closing high on Monday, marking the fifth record close for 2015. And according to Cornerstone Macro's head of technical analysis, Carter Worth, one simple equation could signal another 3,000 points to the upside for the blue chips. It all has to do with the Dow's price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, relative to that of the S&P 500, Worth said. On CNBC's "Fast Money" on Monday, Worth laid out his case for another big leg higher in the Dow by pointing out that the index is inexpensive relative to the S&P 500. "We know that the S&P is trading at 18.8 times and the Dow is trading at 15.8 times," he said, marking a 3-point differential between the P/E ratios of the Dow and S&P 500. "If you were just to put an S&P multiple on to the Dow, you're talking about 21,700." Optimize Advisors President and Chief Strategist Mike Khouw found data consistent with the trend that Worth highlighted. "Looking back a couple decades, when the spread between the price to earnings ratio of the S&P and Dow was 3.5 or higher, the Dow has averaged returns 40 basis points higher than the S&P 500 over the following 90 days." On the flip side, Khouw said, when the two indices traded at parity or when the Dow was more expensive on a P/E basis, it tended to underperform the S&P 500 by a similar margin. Worth identified three stocks that could help lead the Dow higher. One of those stocks was Goldman Sachs, the Dow's most heavily weighted company, which Worth said has "already started to break out." Goldman Sachs is outperforming the market year-to-date and is up around 30 percent in the past 52 weeks. Worth said the stock's chart looks very similar to that of the Dow, and he expected the stock to move another 10 percent higher. United Technologies could also lead the Dow higher in the near future, Worth said. "It's been a laggard this year," he said, but "the presumption is that we in fact break out and exceed the $120 level." Finally, Worth named tech behemoth Apple as another key driver for the Dow's going forward. "It's just a stay long, be long momentum kind of trade," he said. Worth said the chart's technical levels are setting up for another new high. When asked whether it's possible that the S&P is in fact expensive and should really be trading at a multiple closer to that of the Dow, Worth pointed to the lagging performance of "super-cap" names over the "better part of the last three years." That trend, he said, is now starting to change. "If one looks at the relative performance of the largest stocks in the S&P 500, they have started to outperform," he said. "We think that continues, and lends credence to being long the Dow relative to the S&P."
Tom Lee is back again saying this time housing stocks are going to DOUBLE!!!!!!! You heard it here first....housing stocks are going to rally 100%%%% Buy now and make free money.. Tom Lee: Housing stocks set to double-here's why CNBC – 33 minutes ago ShareTweetPrint Companies: SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF RELATED QUOTES SymbolPriceChangeXHB36.25-0.28 RELATED CONTENT Global Advisors' Tom Lee says the key to the rally will be young people buying homes.The news that housing starts rose 20 percent in April serves as just the latest evidence that housing is set to roar back in a big way, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee. But the real key to the rally will be young people buying homes.Lee notes that household formation numbers compiled by the U.S. Census have recently started to break out. But the usually bullish strategist says they still have a long way to go. Based on unusually low household formation numbers, "there's a ton of people living in basements," Lee said Tuesday in an interview with CNBC's "Trading Nation." "Two quarters of pretty decent household formation isn't getting everybody out of the basement. I think this means we have multiple years where household formations are well over 1.3 million, 1.4 million."Of course, if many more young people start buying homes, that's a natural boon to the companies building them."I think housing and housing-related stocks are all buys," Lee said. "If housing starts go to 2 million, which is where we think they're going to go, the builders are going to rise almost 150 percent from here."And this all has very positive ramifications for the broader economy and market.Read More First crowdfunded real estate project paying off "I think it's a very bullish sign because when you look at housing cycles... there's so much revenue and activity generated by housing that if starts go to 2 million, it's several hundred billion dollars of incremental revenues for that sector."Lee isn't the only bull crowing about the housing market these days.Read More Retirees say there's no place like their own home Canaccord Genuity equity strategist Tony Dwyer made a similar point Tuesday in a note to clients, writing that the "acceleration in the number of millennials turning 30 over the next six years ... could ramp household formations," particularly given the "positive employment outlook" and "low household debt service ratio."If young people develop a taste for houses, then, the outlook for homebuilders (NYSE Arca: XHB) could begin to look very bright indeed.
HEY guess what TOM LEE is back again today....this guy is on cnbc now probably once a week.... Why the bull rally will continue: Tom Lee Fred Imbert | @foimbert 1 Hour Ago Despite a batch of mixed economic data, investors should expect a 10 percent rise in stocks this year, Tom Lee said Tuesday. "Stocks are reacting positively to inflation. For instance, stocks that are outperforming this year are the ones raising capex for the first time in four years," Fundstrat Global Advisors' head of research told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." Lee added that he believes the rise will be led by housing, technology and financials. "[Home builders] broke out of a three-year range, hit an eight-year high, so we said that housing starts should break out into an eight-year high. Now, they've broken out into new highs, but an eight-year high would be 1.34 million [housing starts], so I think there's still room for housing starts to rise." Earlier on Tuesday, fresh data showed new U.S. single-family home sales rose more than expected in April and the median price surged, suggesting the housing market recovery was gaining traction. Read MoreEl-Erian: Correction in stocks could happen if … The Commerce Department said sales increased 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 517,000 units. March's sales pace was revised up to 484,000 units from the previously reported 481,000 units. In addition, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index gained 5 percent year over year in March, matching February's pace of appreciation, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Tuesday. Fed distracting markets Adam Jeffery | CNBC Tom Lee Lee also said he believes investors have been too focused on Federal Reserve rate policy. "I think we're spending way too much time worrying about the Fed. We're ignoring the things that are turning positive," he said. In fact, Stanley Fischer the central bank's vice chairman, said in a speech Monday that investors shouldn't be so concerned with the timing of the first interest rate increase. Read MoreThe stock that has sneakily risen 89% this year "What we are thinking about is raising the interest rate from zero, which is an ultra-expansionary monetary policy to a quarter percent, which is an extremely expansionary monetary policy. This will be a gradual process," Fischer said. U.S. stocks were lower late-morning Tuesday, with all major indexes down nearly 1 percent. Fred ImbertNews Associate
A drug user needs more and more drugs to keep the illusions going. Although a quarter percent is small, it is not small for those teetering on the verge of insolvency. Artificial boosts lead to busts when that artificial support is weaned off, not when it's entirely removed. Gringo
Whenever markets are falling cnbc is sure to bring on the bullish super hero, MR LEE yes he was back on the waves Tuesday to say that "THIS MAY BE ONE OF FEW BUYING OPPORTUNITIES LEFT" Amazing, this market can fall thousands of points and he would still come on saying its the greatest opportunities to buy right now, so that means according to his headline that there is no way at all you will be able to buy the dow under 17,500 or the s$p under 2050, hmmmm, I wonder what his thoughts on the market are going to be when the dow breaks 17,000 and liquidity is drying up and china is cutting interest rates under 4% to keep its GDP from falling off a cliff.....was this guy trading back in 1999 or during the financial crisis or did he just start trading and start learning about the markets in March of 2009??? Lee: This may be one of 'few buying opportunities' left Amanda Diaz | @CNBCDiaz Tuesday, 30 Jun 2015 | 6:00 AM ET The Dow and S&P 500 turned negative on the year as fears of a Greek exit slammed stocks around the world. But despite the sharp selloff, one of Wall Street's most consistent and accurate bulls says the selloff has created one of the best opportunities to buy stocks all year. "The Grexit is a source of volatility but not a thesis changer," Fundstrat founder Thomas Lee said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." And while Lee acknowledged that U.S. investors could be in for a rocky few days or even weeks, he advised that "patience is needed but ultimately [this selloff] strengthens the case for a catch-up trade." Read MoreStocks ignored Greece, now paying the price According to Lee, Greece is not a large external threat to the U.S., as "only $22 billion or so of Greece's $240 billion in debt is held by either European or U.S. banks and the rest is ECB, IMF and euro zone governments." As far as Lee is concerned, Greece is contained. "Greece will remain a Greek tragedy." Lee added that "the world is better prepared" for a Grexit today than it was three years ago. "It's kind of unfortunate for the timing of this to happen because it was an adverse development, but I don't think this is going to change the trajectory of the U.S. recovery," said Lee. "It's not going to have an effect on the bull market." The bull insisted that investors shouldn't expect a European recession or "catastrophic" result of the crisis. "Fears of contagion will weigh, but lasting damage would require a Grexit to lead to a sufficient downturn in euro zone activity to drive a recession." Lee, whose bullish target on the S&P 500 of 2,325 is among the highest in the Street, insisted that this may be of one the "few buying opportunities" left on the year. "Bottom line, we think any weakness is short lived and we are buyers into year end," said Lee.
Yep LEE is back on cnbc today saying investors should tune out Greece and just keep buying and he also said CHINA will have "LIMITED or NO EFFECT on the U.S economy or markets HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA this guy is fucking joking right? This has to be a stand up act, So China influences markets when its in an up cycle and GDP is above 10% but once China starts to fall apart and the rest of Asia is going down it has NO EFFECT on the US economy or markets..... I can't wait to see what he says when the markets are in a bear market and down over 30%, I will keep posting every bit of worthless dribble out of this guys mouth.... Tom Lee: Investors should tune out Greece noise Tom DiChristopher 2 Hours Ago Developments in Greece and China bear watching but will have limited or no effect on the U.S. economy or markets, perennial bull Tom Lee said Monday. Global markets were broadly lower Monday, a day after Greeks voted against a bailout package put forward by Greece's creditors and as Chinese officials took measures to prevent a full-blown stock market crash. "I think what we're overlooking is that turmoil in Europe has natural buffers in the U.S.," Lee told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." "I really think that investors who are focused on the U.S. have to tune out some of the short-term noise and realize it's not going to really change things at year end." Read MoreGreece latest: New proposals awaited; Varoufakis quits Investors seeking relative safety will pile in the United States, strengthening the dollar and bolstering asset flows, said Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors. The Federal Reserve may also hold off raising its benchmark interest rates due to adverse developments overseas, which would also protect asset prices, he added. Lee also sees reasons to be optimistic in the U.S. housing market and recent procurement and supply chain data from the Institute for Supply Management. At the same time, easy money policies in Europe and China are creating "positive developments" for pent-up demand and labor markets in the United States, he added. "I think there's an organic recovery now taking place in the U.S." Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities, said it was impossible to say with 100 percent confidence the situation in Greece and China would not impact U.S. markets. "If Greece leaves the euro zone and the euro zone starts to wobble a little bit, that's going to continue to have financial market repercussions around world," he told "Squawk on the Street." Weakness in China and Europe could potentially slow down U.S. exports and damp down the dollar, he added. "We're in uncharted territory here. There are lots of unknowns out there, lots of moving pieces, and I think investors really need to keep an eye on what's going on here." Read MoreRobert Shiller's shocking call: Buy Greek stocks! Earlier Monday, analyst Peter Boockvar said Greece may be a "sideshow" in the international economy, but developments there could exacerbate the biggest risk to global assets. Investors have recently seen a global rise in interest rates, which could put pressure on U.S. stocks, which were "very expensive," said Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group. "To me, Greece is sideshow to the global rise in interest rates that we've seen," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "Let's just say that Greece is temporarily solved, interest rates are going to start heading higher again, and to me that's the risk to global asset prices." Read MoreMohamed El-Erian: Grexit 'high probability' Higher interest rates present an alternative to stocks for investors. When rates run up significantly, it can lead to a flight from equity markets. Greece's "no" vote on new austerity was largely symbolic because the proposal was no longer on the table, but it moved Greece closer to default on an European Central Bank loan and signaled a potential first step toward its exit from the 19-nation euro zone. While the U.S. 10-year Treasurys fell to 2.3 percent Monday, Boockvar noted that the yield went from about 1.85 percent to 2.5 percent between the end of January and the end of June. Further uncertainty over the outcome in Greece and the broader euro zone would presumably lead investors to demand higher yields on the continent's debt to offset the risk of holding those assets. Greek banks remained closed and capital controls in place ahead of a European Central Bank meeting Monday on emergency lending to the country and a summit of European Union leaders set for Tuesday. The ECB froze increases to emergency lending last week after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called the national referendum. Read More'Toxic' Varoufakis is out: Time for a deal? Greece has a 3.5 billion euro payment due July 20 on a bond held by the ECB. It entered arrears last week after failing to pay 1.6 billion euros on a bond held by the International Monetary Fund. Tom DiChristopherWeb and TV producer
And Lee is back once again. Seems like this week he was more active getting his bullish opinion out to the world since the collapse of the Shanghai market that has lost over 32% in 3 weeks and over $2 trillion worth of market value gone.....its only up 150% in the last year.... Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......how come his other signals didn't show the China bubble and 30% plunge? ??? Tom Lee sees a buy signal that WINS 93% of the time!!!!!!! Between the Greek debt crisis, Chinese stock-market crash, and oil sell-off, it has been a tough few weeks for US equities.But Fundstrat's Tom Lee is still bullish."Investors are naturally concerned about fundamental outcomes associated with Greece (Grexit, etc.) and spillover impact on the China economy (from the 30% decline in equities)," Lee said in a big 29-page report to clients. "This past week, we saw several measures that point to extreme risk-aversion and hence, a reliable contrarian 'buy' signal is generated (with lows established either already or in the next few days). We do not expect any material damage to US fundamentals, and hence, see these contrarian signals as supporting our bullish call for a 2H rally."After reviewing five measures of the market, he concluded there was a 93% probability of an S&P 500 rally, with gains of 9% by the end of the year.We summarize the conditions that support his bullish view: 1. The implied volatility term structure has inverted The VIX term structure just inverted again on Wednesday, which could be a good thing. Excluding recession years, Lee says, this inversion has happened 11 times since 2004 — and in seven of them, the sell-off ended within days. Three of the other inversions saw longer sell-offs during 2010-2011 because of the impeding threat of a US government shutdown.According to Lee, returns after inversions are impressive, with markets rallying an average of 6% (in three months) and 10% (in six months), with 100% and 90% win ratios, respectively. 2. US investors are so bearish, it's bullish The American Association of Individual Investors' net percentage of bulls minus bears was at-12% on July 2, the second-lowest level since 2013 (the lowest being -13% on June 11). But, as Lee has pointed out before, extremes in this case usually mean the opposite: "Historically, the AAII survey is a contrarian indicator with a very good track record at the extremes," Lee wrote in a note last month. "For instance, since 1987, whenever the net bulls reading is this low, stocks have seen a subsequent six-month rally 100% of the time, with an average gain of 7%." 3. 1 & 2 together = double bullish Excluding recession years, there have been five times in which the VIX term structure was inverted AND net percentage of bulls minus bears was at or below -12%, as is the case today."Each of the five precedent periods was associated with an extended rally in the S&P 500," Lee wrote.He added that rare occurrences resulted in rallies averaging 6% (over three months) and 9% (over six months) with a 100% win ratio..(Fundstrat) 4. The CBOE put/call ratio reached 1.13 The 10-day average of the Chicago Board Options Exchange recently rose to 1.13, which Lee calls a "reliable buy signal."Get Your Grill OnTarget Sponsor"This implies demand for downside expectations (put) exceeds upside, and hence, is a contrarian buy signal at the extremes," Lee wrote. "Since 2011, there have been nine instances where the Put-call ratio spiked, [and] markets rallied eight of nine times." 5. The long-term yield curve steeped in the first half of 2015 In the first six months of this year, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury notes — known as the long-term yield curve — steepened significantly. This is an unusual occurrence six years into an expansion.Looking at the 13 times in which the LT yield curve has steepened in the first half of the year amid positive market gains, markets further gained 85% of the time, with an average gain of 9%. 6. The S&P is catching up to Germany's DAX Germany's DAX is an index of the country's 30 largest companies (think Siemens, BMW, Deutsche Bank, etc.) The DAX is outperforming the S&P 500 year-to-date by 1,500bp — the third-biggest triumph since 1959. But, as Lee also pointed out last month, US stocks are "due for a catch-up trade."Lee says that whenever the S&P has underperformed the DAX by so much, it catches up by rallying through year-end. The historical average gain is 12% with a 100% win ratio, excluding recession years. He sees a strong sign of a better second half of the year for stocks.
Every single time the market drops a few hundred points Tom lee finds a way to look back at over 100 years of data and find some lame excuse as to why markets are headed higher.....wonder what his opinions will be when the markets are 7% off their highs 10% 14% 18% 24%??? I think he forgot that this is the third longest bull market in history and its only the third longest because of BUBBLE ben bernanke and friends and their QE bubblicious ways...again he will find ANYYYYY EXCUSE TO CONVINCE himself that markets only go up.... TOM LEE: Stocks just did something they haven't done since 1904 COREY STERN Jul. 24, 2015, 8:48 AM Fundstrat's Tom Lee has found yet another reason to be bullish on stocks right now."The S&P 500 did something in the first half of 2015 that it has not done since 1904 — the S&P 500 posted two consecutive (back to back) quarters of 0% gains," Lee said. "In fact, this has happened only one other time in the past 125 years, for either the Dow and the S&P 500."The last time this happened, it was the Dow that stood still for six months in 1904. But then something else happened: Stocks surged 43% over the next two quarters.While Lee isn't explicitly saying that he thinks stocks will follow the trajectory of 1904, he says that this should reinforce the old saying that investors should "never short a dull market.""There are certainly differences versus today — notably, the US was exiting a recession at that time," Lee wrote. "However, the key takeaway for us, is that history suggests we could see strong gains in 2H."