Exactly what I was thinking, if the market was that predictable by that guy ... I think he would be doing something other than making 40 posts a day or whatever his rate is. Everything is so obvious after the fact. The same debate goes on in the currency market. "Professional" analysts have been saying that the carry trade JPY pairs would crash for over a year now. 20 - 30% up from then and they are still saying "Carry trade extremely dangerous, about to unwind" What the heck is this? MichaelScott will be completely wrong, when the Dow reaches 16,000 and then crashes 1 year from now he can beat his chest and say how close he was.